Hero: Seat 2 SB QhJh $600 - I have been running over the table, one of the only players who has been consistently raising pre-flop and I have taken down numerous pots including one entire round where my PFR took down every pot. I recently returned from a long dinner break and most of the table had changed except 3 players. So I guess their image of me is loose and aggressive.

Villain: Seat 7 MP covers me. He has been tight at the table. I think he must have won a big pot while I was away. The only hand he has played while I have been at the table (before my break) was this: I have 99 on btn and mp (villain) makes it 15. I call. I have a big stack and have been running over the table playing in position and taking pots away on flop or turn. Flop J85. He bets 15 and I call. Turn K and he bets 30 and I call. River is 9 of flush. I bet 100 and he thinks a long time and calls with a set of KKK. Not proud of that one but it's the one hand I played with him.

I have QhJh. In SB and call seat 7s $10 bet pre flop. He has me covered and I have $600.

Flop 8s4h9h. I check. He bets 15 and I c/r to 45. (Semi-bluff with FD+GSSD+overs) The 9h means he doesn't have TP+FD so overpair, sets, two pairs, maybe draws seem like his range. He calls.

Turn is the Qc. Now I have TP plus all the other draws. I bet $40 and he makes it $100. If I call we have a $300 pot with $450 behind.

Action?

If his range looks like AA-99,AKs-A5s,98s,98o,KQs-K2s on the flop then you seem to be way ahead of his range once the Q hits. Of course the fact that he raised you on the turn really narrows his range down unless he is would semi bluff raise here. 60: 220 - 3.5 to 1 on a call and you have outs on top of that. So we can rule out you folding to that bet for 60$ more. I'm not sure but with top pair I would think calling here would be fine because you have a hand that can win at showdown and can also see your flush card, if you raise you risk having to call an all in.

Call. He's giving you great odds, and he's likely strong so you've got good implied odds. I would expect to win almost every time you hit one of your draws. You likely have no chance of bluffing him out here or on the river. Call and hope to spike. Jam if you do.

Call and hope to spike. I expect a lot of JT in most villains range for the turn raise, so your probably drawing to beat him with only an outside chance that the Q is good. He gave you way too good of odds to fold though, even without any chance the top pair is good and no implied odds you would have to call here.

If you spike either draw then shove and hope he can't fold a straight. Otherwise check and evaluate.

So the consensus is call. Let's talk about potential rivers and what to do.

1) I think the nuts is a Th on the river as villain probably has to call hoping for a chop. Do you shove or just bet $200 or so? Do you ever fold to a shove?

2) Any other flush card that doesn't pair the board: shove or smaller bet? Again, do you ever believe villain if he represents a higher flush?

3) Any other T completing the straight. B/c hoping he might fold his part of the chop or c/c hoping he gives more value if he has a set?

4) If the board pairs do you consider bluffing? We c/r flop which indicated strength and b/c turn when a straight completed so I think a set is in my range.

Left out a couple:

5) J comes for two pair. How big a river bet are you willing to call?

6) The rest of the cards? (Any interesting cases I am missing?). c/f or would you consider a smallish b/f?

The player is tight, and he's shown aggression. His hand is almost certainly very good OTT. I'd weight him mostly to sets, some straights, and possibly a few rando 2 pair combos.

Given the cards in your hand, the fact that he's tight, and the action, I doubt he has a flush draw. You should almost always be good when a third heart hits. If you spike a nonheart T you have the effective nuts b/c he never shows up w/ KJ (you have the Jh). Against a tight player with an obviously good, but also mostly second best, hand I'm going for max value.

I'd expect to stack him a high % of the time on heart rivers, and some of the time on T rivers (he may fold his weakest sets, and we'll chop some too).

I guess it depends on the exact range that you give Villain. Most of the time I think the Qc hurts our equity, it doesn't help it. I'm not even sure whether we're bluffing or value-betting with our roughly 1/3rd pot bet on the turn.

Board: 8s 4h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.675% 48.55% 00.12% 26436 67.50 { 88+, AhKh, AhTh, Ah7h, KhTh, JTs, 98s, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 51.325% 51.20% 00.12% 27879 67.50 { QhJh }

Board: 8s 4h 9h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.460% 53.69% 00.77% 1252 18.00 { 88+, AhKh, AhTh, Ah7h, KhTh, JTs, 98s, JTo, 98o }
Hand 1: 45.540% 44.77% 00.77% 1044 18.00 { QhJh }

Doesn't look like your pair is ahead. How many outs do you think you have? The problem is even if you're getting the right price to chase the heart/T/J/Q, how do you get river value from oop?

Why are we betting $40 ott?

I feel I played this hand very poorly because of fatigue and maybe a little "I run this table" tilt. So I will share what I think was in my head in the moment and also what I think is the right way to think.

In the moment: I bet $40 on the turn because I thought after he called my c/r I needed to effectively cbet to represent my hand plus "hey! Now I have a pair (5 outs to 2p or trips) plus 9 FD outs + 3 GSSD outs". I was not thinking "if he had a draw he could now have the nuts". The JT didn't even cross my mind when he raised! In fact I made one of the worst plays I have very made and snap shoved over his raise.

Right way to think: as played, call turn and shove if a T or flush comes. For my first action on the turn checking is definitely an option but I don't hate the $40 as a potential blocking bet. If villain isn't thinking about stack sizes and building to an AI he might just choose to milk me. But his c/r on the flop says that probably isn't the case. So c/c on the turn is probably better.