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Old 05-14-2017, 06:23 PM   #1
hemloc11
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1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Hero ($650) is winning at an underground game and playing well against a splashy table of good regs.

V ($350) is to Hero's left and has been active, but is a bit steamed from losing to a donk's all in less than an orbit ago (lost about $300 pot).

2 limpers to the BTN and hero raises to $12 with 88. V calls in the SB and both limpers call.

Pot ~ $45
Flop: A86

V checks to first limper who bets $15 and is called by the 2nd limper. Hero raises to $50, V calls, both limpers fold.

Pot ~ $175
Turn: 2

V plays with his chips which Hero reads as weak and checks, Hero bets $75 and V calls.

Pot ~ $325
River: 10

V jams $215 AI into Hero and gets up to get a drink from the fridge.
Hero?

Last edited by hemloc11; 05-14-2017 at 06:31 PM. Reason: depth of description
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:25 PM   #2
Garick
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Snap call. If he has 79 and played it like that, pay the man his monies. AT and 66 much more likely.

More on the turn though, please.
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:27 PM   #3
djevans
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

you lose to 1 hand that he can theoretically have.

Call - you can't fold this for that good of a price.


Also your turn bet is way too small - $125
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:32 PM   #4
Garick
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Well, theoretically he could have AA or TT and played it horribly, but not very likely.
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:36 PM   #5
hemloc11
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

I should have bet $125 on the turn, but I read him as weak and i wanted an A-rag to keep calling. What threw me off was the AI donk jam when I was expecting to go AI after he checked.
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:37 PM   #6
8ballJunkie
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Snap call. *You only need to be good 29% of the time.
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:42 PM   #7
Dizzyqtp
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Beating him into the pot here
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Old 05-14-2017, 06:45 PM   #8
8ballJunkie
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

What if V had more chips behind after the $215 bet, are we raising this river?
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:03 AM   #9
PFunkaliscious
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

ugh. nasty spot.

I don't think it is such a clear cut call as others have pointed out. The only hand that V might possibly play this way is AT. And then, not really. This screams 97, but the problem is the tasty price you are getting on the river.

If this player is weak/tight or tight, you can fold this. Otherwise, against loose or laggy players, you have to call.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:18 AM   #10
johnnyBuz
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

More pre. More on turn. Snap river.

Flatting $50 on the flop would be pretty terrible for 97. He should pretty much always have 66 here.
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Old 05-15-2017, 04:22 AM   #11
WereBeer
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Sorry you lost but I can't see folding here.
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Old 05-15-2017, 05:46 AM   #12
Shai Hulud
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Call, I think, but it's a bit tricky. If you had bet more on the turn (say 3/4 pot or ~130) it would have been super snap call as your pot odds would then (435+160):160 = 3.72:1, and you'd only need to be good 21% of the time. As is you need to be good 29% of the time, and I'm not sure you are.

There are 3 combinations of AA, 3 combinations of TT, and 16 combinations of 97 that beat you.

You beat 3 combinations of 66 and 3 combinations of 22, 9 combinations of AT, 9 combinations of A8, 9 combinations A6, 9 combinations A2. 22 likely would have folded on the flop. The AX 2-pair hands may not be realistic either, depending whether villain would call a raise OOP with such marginal speculative hands. However, the fear is he's called a raise OOP with 97, a marginal speculative hand, so I don't think these can be ruled out, particularly the suited combinations. Villain could also be check-calling a weaker made hand or drawing hand like 77 or 54 of clubs, then sees the scare card and shoves the river, exploiting you perfectly as this line looks super strong.

On the other hand, we can almost certainly discount AA and possibly TT, depending how wide villain 3-bets OOP.

IMO there are way more combinations of hands you are beating than hands that beat you. It looks like 66 or 97 if villain is not capable of big bluffs, but I think some of the time he has two pair. If it's just 66 and 97, you're good 3/19 times and it's a fold. But if villain calls a raise OOP only with 97s and not 97o then you're good 3/7 times. If we add in even a few combinations of the two-pair hands and some bluffs then it's an easy call.

Whether you're ahead or behind depends on your read I think, but getting 2.5:1 I say call unless this guy is a supernit (but you described him as a good reg, so I think not).

Betting bigger on the turn would make this a far easier decision.

Last edited by Shai Hulud; 05-15-2017 at 05:51 AM. Reason: math error
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Old 05-15-2017, 08:21 AM   #13
BackDoorFlush
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

More OTT, Snap calling river bet.
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Old 05-15-2017, 02:17 PM   #14
Jay S
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

If a steamed V can get here with 97 a lot, it'd be a mistake not to include any bluff combos of 75 in his range. Between that and AT/66, we're ahead of way more than 28% of his range. Snap it off.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:24 PM   #15
Shai Hulud
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Re: 1/2 Deep Stack Set of 8's vs. AI River Bet

Correction: There are only 3 combinations of A8 villain could have, one suited.
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