This hand is 7-handed. Hero is in SB with 33.

Preflop: UTG limps, fold, HJ raises to $10, two folds, Hero calls in SB, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop (4 players/$40-x): 35Q
Hero bets $30, fold, fold, HJ thinks and calls.

Turn (Heads up/$100-$7=$93): 7
Hero bets $55, HJ thinks...and calls.

River ($203): T
Hero bets $100, HJ raises to $300, Hero...

Cry call it off; I'm not that upset we got raised for that price. There has to be some 2 pair, and definitley all QT combos in his raising range. Sets are unlikely as they are raising earlier. 46ss and QT are most likely holdings here.

Yup, I'm calling. Unlike P4MS, I don't expect to see 64s here a lot. If I'm beat, I expect to see QQ. (Lots of thinking players think they need to slowplay top set on the flop.) But I also need to see if this could be a thin value raise with a hand like AA or KK, and QT is a possibility (but not as likely as 64--I don't think he raises all QT).

Pre is an easy fold.

Post I would lead for $20, max $25. $30 tells villain (thinker) that not only do you have a Qx, but you really llike your hand. He will go on defensive quite often here. $20 could induce a raise and if you act properly you can convince him you have maybe KQ and wont let go.

Checking to PFR to capture air cbet is nice, yet being OOP we cannot afford to allow any street to go chk thru, therefore I would lead out.

It all depends on how he perceives your overall range here too when making the flop betsize.

What hands can he raise here?

QQ, 77, 55, 46 are his only winners.

Q10, AA, KK, Maybe AQ, rarely KQ.

As is, even if you take AQ and KQ out it's still a call.

18 combos of him winning vs 21 of you winning (33 if he plays AQ this way).

I don't think you win this pot from this V a lot though, but I'd still make a crying call

Not sure how pre can ever be a fold at this stack depth vs these villains behind us. BB is likely calling, utg is def calling. We have some risk of getting squeezed but given we could potentially win 450bb in this pot I think this is an obvious call. We are getting well past 20-1 on our set mine

Crying call. $200 to win $603 is too good of odds to give up on a set but it is clearly a crying call. Against a good player, I might even get away from it some of the time. What could he be raising you with on river that you beat? Two pair is it, but QX combos are unlikely raises preflop except QT and that didn't get there till river. The lower two pairs are all unlikely raises preflop. If you think villain might be raising with an over pair or a good QX then calling is fine, but if you take all of those out then there isn't much left in his range that you beat.

Do people really think he would raise two pair or an overpair here? Hero's range is so narrow here that really only includes 33, 55, AQ, and maybe KQ. I can't imagine that he thinks he has enough FE to get you off the top of your range on such a dry board.

If Villain thinks Hero has a range of 55/33/AQ/KQ then he should be raising the bolded hands for value because if he has, say, KK, our range will consist of 12 AQ combos, 6 KQ combos, and 6 total set combos. That means he beats 18 hands and loses to 6. Unless he thinks we will fold AQ and KQ, he should be raising.

You're right, I just don't think that he thinks we will call here with any Qx.

But if a thinking player does not believe he has enough fold equity to take us off a set, and can beat a set, why not shove? With a set, I'm willing to pay $200 more to find out what's going on here.

Against a shove, this might be different.

Pretty crappy river spot. I won't lie to myself - - I almost always click call in-game but when I'm able to sit back and think about it from a distance it seems very unlikely that he is doing this with worse. Q10 is the only Q he should be raising river with and I think he folds that hand on the turn, on this particular board, a decent amount of the time. Board isn't very drawy either so the chances of him turning a whiff into a bluff here are probably low as well. Maybe, just maybe, he has a hand like 66/88/99 that floated the flop/turn w/ plans to take away and is trying to get you off Qx here but that's probably ambitious.

I thought that as well, I just don't think there are that many players at 1/2 who are capable of doing this. Of course, I would probably end up calling here considering the odds are too good.

Edit: for two post up.

So if we were $395 deep only, you would fold bottom set to this line if it ended in a shove?

I guess this is why ANL wants to fold preflop.

Lead and get it in

No, I'm making a crying call, I'm just not too happy about it.

I will let discussion go for the afternoon on river play.

ANL I am very interested in bolded above. In the moment I felt villain was raising wide and I wanted desperately to play pots with BB and especially UTG. My biggest concern was a squeeze from BB and I wonder if that is playing into your thoughts on folding pre? Or is it moreso the poor relative position postflop that could make it very difficult to win a big pot when we flop a set (against a solid, winning pfr our implied odds should be cut way down due to his wide opening range).

P.S. You can laugh at this and please keep in mind that I am now 45 years old. I chatted with villain about this hand this morning and he says I bet $20 otf. I can't remember because the turn and river action replaced the flop action in my memory I suppose. My advice: do not get any older! I won't bother to amend the HH because it does not factor too much into turn and river play.

I think even as a nit player, I have to call the river as played. I think this hand was well played ( some people have squabbled perhaps to the turn sizing, but i think it works despite the thoughts) and i think you're going to see AQ, Q10 and floaty hands here more often than a made hand that beats us. I can easily discount 46ss simply because a thinking player doesn't raise 5x with only one limper with that type of hand. I think you're going to see a bunch of pocket pairs here, AQ, and rare but possible over pair ( it's a passive as hell way to play KK in this spot, but I think it's possible) Plus 2:1 on a call is a nice way to grab money with bottom set.

This is a bummer.
If I am Villain, I only got to the river with sets, AA/KK, and MAYBE QT-AQ. And a tiny chance of A5h.
So the only Question for Hero is, Does he turn his hands with some SDV into bluffs a high enough % of the time to make this a call.
The vast vast majority of 1/2 players never do this (but may turn something dumb into a bluff). Since V has some skill, he shouldn't have anything dumb, so does he have AA/KK, QT+ AND turn it into a bluff more than ~25% of the time?

This is my line of thinking as well and I think it is close.

Leading flop is good.

Here are my thoughts as the hand was being played...

This hand is 7-handed. Hero is in SB with 33.

Preflop: UTG limps, fold, HJ raises to $10, two folds, Hero calls in SB, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop (4 players/$40-x): 35Q
Hero bets $30, fold, fold, HJ thinks and calls.
I know villain likes to raise donk bets because they so often represent weak made hands looking to take it down. However, he knows I do not lead like this often and imo should be wary of my bet.

Turn (Heads up/$100-$7=$93): 7
Hero bets $55, HJ thinks...and calls.
Here my bet looks like just what it is. A bet to induce or a bet/fold. Villain does sometimes overestimate his chances of winning pots so I want him to see a price that is too good to fold. He may be drawing dead or very slim.

River ($203): T
Hero bets $100, HJ raises to $300, Hero...[/QUOTE]
Only now am I thinking about hands that beat me...
QQ, 55 - once the pot gets heads up he could have been afraid of losing me. I am very capable of bet/folding. Then again he should know I either have a set and take it to the moon or I have a marginal holding that will likely not pay off.
64 - whoa. We are on the river and villain just made a big value bet that seems out of nowhere. We should always consider the nuts. Preflop is ambitious, flop action fits, turn action is iffy...same as above I might have expected a raise.
Is anything else really in his value range? Am I really calling this river with hands like Qx? I considered QT but I think this hand just calls the river.

What hand is he turning into a bluff? That would be one helluva gutsy move.

Only now am I thinking about hands that beat me...
QQ, 55 - once the pot gets heads up he could have been afraid of losing me. I am very capable of bet/folding. Then again he should know I either have a set and take it to the moon or I have a marginal holding that will likely not pay off.
64 - whoa. We are on the river and villain just made a big value bet that seems out of nowhere. We should always consider the nuts. Preflop is ambitious, flop action fits, turn action is iffy...same as above I might have expected a raise.
Is anything else really in his value range? Am I really calling this river with hands like Qx? I considered QT but I think this hand just calls the river.

What hand is he turning into a bluff? That would be one helluva gutsy move.

[/QUOTE]

Don't be too unhappy. Atleast you didn't get stacked.

i'm usually a little weary when certain players say things during hands. this guy is considered a good, thinking player, yet he comments on the hand in the middle of it. i'd keep an eye out in the future to see if he makes comments like this in other hands and see what he shows up with. it might have been a one off thing that he never does again or it could be rare, but who knows, maybe you see him say something like this in a month, he shows up with the nuts again. i wouldnt base my entire play on it, but maybe it helps add into the equation.

Good comment.