Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
why would you fold 33 pre to a 5bb raise with 100bb? sure, you're OOP, but UTG has been shown to stack off very light and we are getting 20:1 in implied odds against him. we won't make much money from hijack but we could also win a decent pot by taking a passive line against bb or hijack if they show aggression and UTG folds. all in all, i think that makes 33 a call pre 100bb deep. if we were a little shorter, like 75bb deep or less i could find a fold pre, but i think 100bb deep is a clear call (mainly because of the UTG villain)
Without going into a thesis on it (which I have done on set mining BTW), the research online and then translating as best as possible to live---shows that OOP small pairs do overall poorly when you are not sure that you will have other villains who will payoff super light. The parlay of the BB or utg calling + they must hit THEN they must payoff in a bad way since we are OOP and must play fairly face up to get allin = far too big of a parlay.
Im not saying at all that it is a huge leak, Im saying it is most likely -EV since right out the gate you have to say things like----Villain is going to play im sure, and villain will hit the board if he does take the flop----and then villain will also payoff like a slot machine. That is TON OF OPTIMISTIC HOPE which I find is usually just that. Blind optimism.
At 100bb I find a fold here. If the opener was a routine weakish player---then its all different. I would flat UNLESS the BB was truly a big squeezer. I still fold then.
And im already imagining that a ton of players here will say that this is a no brainer flat pre and tahts that. Well, thats fine. Thats why poker is poker. Its also why players have insisted to me that they play small pairs and suited connectors profitably online ---and truly think that they do, and then i have them drill down the HM and see for themselves that they are running at a negative with those hands. Its deceptive for sure.
How many times do you take the flop with a pair, flop a set, and actually get a ton of action? Its pretty rare if less than 4 people take the flop. And when OOP, coupled with squeezing BB player frequently, also great player opening----buh, i fold.
But thats me and my opinion only.