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07-19-2019 , 02:40 PM
Hero: Late 20's, been playing for an hour. Taken a few pots w/out showing cards.
Villain: Sat down 30 min ago, mid 20's, Asian male. Seems very loose.

Stacks: Hero $375, Villain, $400

Hero raises to $11 in MP with TT
Folded to villain on button who 3 bets to $40. Folded to Hero who calls. (Is that okay?)

Flop ($83): Q72
Hero checks, Villain bets $40. Hero calls.

Turn ($163): Q
Hero checks. Villain bets $100. Hero calls (Couldn't see him betting a queen or pocket pair here....thoughts?)

River($363): 4
Hero checks. Villain jams for $175. Hero?
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07-19-2019 , 04:35 PM
So you have a bluff catcher, but nothing else. The call preflop is fine, because you're likely doubling up if you hit a set, but I hate the rest of the line.

At this point, I think the only hands that fit his line are AA, KK, AK, and AQ, and if it is, in fact, the AK where he's firing 3 barrels, he's being super aggro. So, basically you're thinking of putting in 175 to win 538. If we assume I'm right about his range, then you're winning 25% of the time, and you don't have the odds to call. Additionally, there's an outside shot he takes this line with KQ or 77, which makes things even worse for you.

Regarding your analysis, I'm not sure why you think he isn't betting a queen or pocket pair on that turn. To me, this reads 3 streets of value, and especially if he bet AQ on the flop, I'm not sure why he's all of a sudden check behind on the turn. He'd want to bloat the pot as much as possible.

In any event, overall my analysis is to probably fold to the 3bet since you're OOP, though I'm okay with it if you turn it into a set mine. I'm probably x/folding the flop, since, again, I'm only playing this as a set mine at this point. The call is okay in a vacuum, but you don't call for exactly the reason we see here, which is that you're going to need to make 2 more really hard calls. The turn call is where I think it really goes off the rails. If you were really sure he was bluffing, you could have jammed to at least get some fold equity against hands like KK or AA. As played, just fold the river. You don't have the odds to call.
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07-19-2019 , 05:15 PM
200bbs put in out of position with an overcard on the board. Is that profitable against young asian LAGs? I'd say no. So we need to change our line here somewhere.

First what do you mean he "Seems loose?" You didn't really expand there. Regardless I'm don't have a problem with the pre of flop action. The mistake is on the turn. We have more queens that raise and call a 3 bet than in his range. So why don't we lead into him and protect our equity? He may call with 88-99 and he may fold JJ.

The other benefit is that it earns us a checkback at showdown. But if you don't lead I think you have to fold here. As played snap him off and pray. But this is not a profitable spot to be in.
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07-20-2019 , 04:16 AM
Why doesn’t he bet a Q OTT? I’m fist pump betting trips top kicker here. People call way too wide preflop, hate to fold trips and we need to bet to set up a river shove. This is where we stack KQ and then agree that it was a cooler when it was not.
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07-20-2019 , 05:15 AM
Fold turn, his range is crushing TT and he'd have to really be spewing his AK combos to make this a good calldown. I think we can get away with calling down our Qx and folding underpairs

Also your math doesn't add up we should have ~$200 left on the river. V's turn sizing also lets us fold more hands, we'd be in a tougher spot if he bet $75 on the turn and jammed $225 into $300 on the river
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07-20-2019 , 05:49 AM
Is he loose aggressive or loose passive? Makes a big difference.

If you have a strategy, it seems to be that he 3 bet light, so you're going to rope a dope him into stacking off. I need a little more evidence than he's a young asian male to believe that is a good strategy. The other thing is that if that is your strategy, then the river is an autocall.

TBH, this looks like a Harrington "dark tunnel" hand. You have a hand that could be a winner, so you stick with it on the the flop and turn. Over the years people have justified this play with various theories but the reality is that it allows calling stations to call. Folding anywhere along the line would be better than how you played this hand.
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