Villain: 40s white man; TAG reg, used to be a nittier TAGfish but seems to be a semi-solid TAG now ($200)
Hero: mid 20s asian man; nitty TAG image ($550)

Three limpers, hero iso raises on the BTN to $16 with XX. Only villain who limped in MP calls.

Flop: T77 ($39)

Villain checks. Hero bets $25. Villain calls.

Turn: 4 ($84)

Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Villain says "you really don't want me to hit that spade do you?" Then he shoves for $159 total.

$109 to call a $293 pot. Looks suspiciously like 7x though. Assuming hero has been value betting (including monster draws like AK), what is the worst hand hero should call with here? Also, what would be the worst hand hero should call with here if villain didn't make that speech?

Anyone? This is meant to be a theoretical question based on a true story.

Ugh I always hate these spots... I usually level myself into "lol pot odds" calling and lose to 7x like always. I don't really see what else he can have if your description is accurate (the nit TAG fish part). Do players slow play flush draws OTF only to fast play OTT on a paired board? I haven't seen much of it.

I think this might be a fold everything/call everything type spot... meaning that, based on the player description, I would be folding/calling with my entire "value range" as you say. Including KQss, which we don't have the odds to chase our draw against a range of mostly 7x. Now... if we think this guy can show up with AT or any other Tx in this spot like ever, then we can now call with our entire range knowing that we can actually be in great shape some of the time, and our overs might be live when we do have AKss or QKss.

But yeah, spots like this suck. When the pot is lying you good odds on a call, but we can't really beat anything that isn't a random spazz bluff. It really just comes down to accurately ranging your opponents. If I had ever seen this guy over play top pair before I would call and not be too upset about it.

Pot the flop with a value hand (KT+/overpairs/big draws). V's speech is 7x just about always. I'm probably folding everything that isn't 7x or better, maybe AKss. Without the speech I call with AT+/big combo draws, maybe KT.

Baluga Theorem. Even on a FD board, to do this OTT is almost always a made-hand, usually one that beats (or is) AT. Sans speech, I call with AT+, esp if we don't have As, so there is some semi-bluff with NFD in his range, and NFDs. With speech, I don't even call with overpairs, 7x, or boats only. Even though we only need 27% equity, AsKs only has 16% against 78s.

Regarding AsKs, that's a bluff hand. In general I don't understand why anyone would choose to bet/call with bluffs.

I think the 4h is not a very scary card to Villain and I wouldn't expect him to fold on the turn very often.

OK that all sounds good. And yes I agree that the speech is 7x almost always.

Now let's change up the scenario and pretend villain is a LAG instead of a TAG. What ranges now with/without that speech?

If he's truly a tag, he isn't going to have 7x now is he? I would guess Tag has an oddly played overpair and I would now start calling off with QQ or KK+ because his range is more likely Atss, JJ+

The difference between TAG/LAG isn't big in this case. The paired board and low SPR force the situation to a certain extent. Stack size means villain can't really call turn and fold river and the somewhat scary board means he is really stuck between fold and shove on turn. The biggest difference is that LAG is more likely to get to turn and more likely to shove then a TAG. A LAG is more likely to shove a draw but also has more 7X in his range so the ratio is probably around the same overall.

If I had history with villain I would be paying more attention to what his speech has meant in the past. This is often a big clue as too his range but it's very villain specific. Without some read I'm done with the hand unless I can beat 7X.