This was a hand I played at the mirage a couple weeks ago.

As I recall, I had only been at the table for ~20 min. Villain had played one significant hand. I don't remember the exact action but I think he c-bet A10 on an AXX board into 2-3 players, a button-clicking fish called with AJ and then raised him on the turn something like A977. Then this fish went AI on the river for maybe 3/4 pot, seemed like quite a strong line. villain tank-called and seemed pretty pissed. I know this is a pretty vague description of the hand I don't remember it to well.
Anyway, at this point I had villain pegged as a tagfish and someone who I shouldn't bluff. But this read was still pretty thin.
Also since he hadn't played too many hands since I sat down and didn't seem overly aggro I assumed that when he c-bets into multiple opps he has the goods way more often than not. Again, definitely not certain of this.

So the hand in question involves 2 limps in front of me, I overlimp 65s in the CO, villain raises to 15 on the button, one player called, action to me. I called, which might be questionable with 100bb eff stacks, but the limper seemed really passive fit/fold, and I had info/relative position on the villain.
Anyways, flop comes A23r giving me a gutter+BDFD (pot~48).
checked around to villain who bets 30, folds to me. Now I have the best hand to bluff with, but at the same time I feel it's very likely V has an Ace, and although V would be making a mistake calling this c/r with tp vs my range, I still feel the individual hand is likely (though not definitely) -EV to c/r.
What are your thoughts?
If we were deeper say 200bb then I would definitely c/r, with these stacks I'm not sure.

based on the previous hand you described, it doesn't seem like villain is folding his Ax here enough for this semi bluff to be profitable. As you said, raising with 200BB would be a better play.

I say pitch it.

Fold when its raised pre...Fold to the flop bet.

Can't se an Ax getting folded here. Never go broke in a limped pot (which this basically is)

This. And ur OOP. Seems like ur just finding any reason to steal a pot, if u get called then what, spew off another barrel on the turn? I'd wait for better spots. GL

Easy Fold pre but as played You limped in pre so if I'm V I'm taking you off A10+ and 99+ so your range involves 22-88 plus suited connectors and Axs. So your repping a set or two pair. Your not very deep so you would essentially have 50% of your stack in after your cr. Hmm I don't like the move, not on the V you described. I think it's a spew.

You pretty much described most of the regs at Mirage. I'd be pretty surprised if he wasn't holding AA or Ak and just itching to shove once somebody indicated they wanted to play. I doubt you could get them off any flop involving an A. The pf raise indicated he wants to play, so bluffing seems spewy unless you have a totally different read. Of course, you could always fill the gut, which would tilt him big time.

Fold pre when oop and only 100bb deep. This isn't a good flop to bluff because V is never folding an A and he probably is peeling with 99-KK. Unless you can find at least 2 barrels (which is tough with only 100bb) you should just fold the flop.

In the OP I said that my read was I shouldn't bluff him, so I wasn't entering the hand with 65s trying to steal a pot. But what happened is the flop texture was such that my hand was the best possible hand to bluff with. And in terms of "what to do on the turn" it is actually a very profitable street for me should I get there (if it wasn't a profitable street than this hand wouldn't be good in theory to bluff with. But we know it is. Meaning I can barrell any heart, 4,5, or 6.
The problem, however, as other people stated is I don't have much stack behind. Thus there is little room for me to maneuver (he would have great odds to call a turn shove). This is why I said that I would definitely c/r this hand if I had 2 stacks behind me.

I assume you mean easy fold pre after the raise? I mean it certainly can be folded right away but overlimping can't be a big mistake, if mistake at all. In terms of calling the raise yeah I agree I should've folded.
I have this problem when playing live where I keep thinking I'm deeper than I am, because the standard raise sizes are so much bigger than online.
In terms of my range OTF I think I rep a lot, as you said I have SCs, PPs, and Axs in my range, all of those hand categories have combos that hit this board hard.
I guess when describing the V, part of my point was maybe he "thinks he is a winning player" rather than some gambling fish and thus wouldn't want to get value owned again.
But most of you probably have more live experience than I do so when you all say I should fold I guess you're probably right.
I just thought it was an interesting hand as from a theory standpoint it is the best hand to bluff with but from a practical standpoint I'm up against a guy who is likely to call me down more often than he should.

Yea I meant after the raise, I would limp with the hand but once raised and oop, I would just toss it.

Gutterball + bottom BDFD?

$30 into a limped pot? Give it up and bet this pre next time or fold it.

As played pre fine. Flop fold. Easy game.

Fold to the raise pre.

I'm ok with an OOP float if you have a read that he doesn't double barrel without the goods. Fold otherwise.