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Old 03-13-2018, 08:03 PM   #1
pokrr
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1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

1/2 Golden Nugget

The MP vil is a loose passive who loves calling with suited connectors, b’ways etc. She has gone all in 3 times before post flop always with a set or better

I have JJ utg. I raise to 10. MP calls. Btn calls. Pot: 30

Flop: 7 3 4 rainbow

I bet 25. MP calls. Btn folds. Pot: 80

Turn: J

I bet 45. MP shoves for 92 more. Pot: 217. Hero???

My hesitation comes from how this player type tends to mean exactly what she means when she does this. But even so, I feel we’re getting too good a price here to even consider folding.
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:05 PM   #2
HawkesDave
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

She'd basically have to have 65 100% of the time to fold here. Call and hope the board pairs. Expect to lose a lot of the time. Easy pokers. Marginally +EV at worst.
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:24 PM   #3
iraisetoomuch
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Snap call and profit.
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:32 PM   #4
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Described V has all other sets in addition to several combos of 34s and might even peel with a 73s/74s, I've seen worse at low stakes with call happy passive players...

I m trying to come up with an opponent/stack depth/stakes scenario where I would fold this....and I think it's if I shot took 10/25 and v and I were 1000bb effective. Even then...
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:44 PM   #5
Chumbardo
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

You might be getting direct odds to call against 56 depending on what your typo is. Is it 137 total? You said she shoved for 92 more, but according to your math you mean 92 total. 92 + 45 + 80 = 217. Regardless, this is always a call.
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:17 PM   #6
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Snap call, high five the dealer

Even vs the 56, you have 9 cards once for about 18% eq and you're getting like 4.5:1 direct odds
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:28 PM   #7
tyeee
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Easy call as describes imo. What if hero holds 78s in this spot instead. Would this also be a call? Or in a sense, what is the worst hand that hero should be calling with in this spot?
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:33 PM   #8
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

If you fold, you need to take up Parcheesi and quit poker.
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Old 03-13-2018, 10:03 PM   #9
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Once again, I don't understand this thread....
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:40 PM   #10
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

I'm assuming the only reason this is being posted is that villain actually had the straight and you lost.
Folding here against anyone would be insanely terrible
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Old 03-14-2018, 03:44 AM   #11
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

No, I did not fold and vil had set of 33s
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:39 AM   #12
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

You'd need a crowbar to pull this out of my hand.

2.36:1 with top set on a board where only 65 beats us? We have 22.9% equity against that and 97.7% against a worse set, so she literally needs to have 65 90+% of the time here to make this an unprofitable call.
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Old 03-14-2018, 05:16 AM   #13
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Not trying to dog anyone, but for the life of me I can't understand the need of a thread for a situation like this. You have top set, you lose to exactly one hand, you're calling off less than 50bb, and you're getting almost direct odds to call against the nuts.

To take the time to answer your question though, I'll first point out that your pot calculations appear to be wrong. The pot is $80 after turn action, you bet $45 OTR, and your V raised $92 more ($137 total). So the pot is $80+$45+$137= $262, not $217. So you're getting about 3/1 on your call. With ~23% equity to boat up with one card to come, you're about a 3.5/1 dog against 56. So as you can see, it's a near break-even call even if she turns her cards face up and shows you 56. If she ever has anything else, it's a slam dunk call.

If you're saying her bet was $92 total and you're calling $47 more into a $217 pot, you're getting 4.65/1 on your call and if would be a huge mistake to fold even if she showed you 56.
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Old 03-14-2018, 09:47 AM   #14
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

snapping without any hints of doubt! ship it!
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:16 AM   #15
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donat3llo View Post
Snap call, high five the dealer
This, but also fist pump Jersey Shore style, run a victory lap around the table, order 8 beers from the cocktail waitress, and throw confetti in the air.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:43 AM   #16
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

People at 1/2 are now contemplating folding top sets with the second nuts? How times have changed.
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:31 AM   #17
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

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Originally Posted by twitcherroo View Post
Once again, I don't understand this thread....
This x10000. In fact, if you never EVER folded top set on the flop no matter the size of your stack throughout your entire poker career, I can almost guarantee that you will end up WAY ahead.
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:47 AM   #18
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

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Old 03-14-2018, 11:56 AM   #19
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Should we count the combos? Let's assume villain only does this with a set or better.

33 - 3
44 - 3
77 - 3
56s - 4

We beat over 2/3 of her value range, and this doesn't include QQ/KK/AA. Add in any bluffs she may have. There's a handful of 34s in her range too, I guess. Even if we are up against 56s we still have some decent equity with 10 outs.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:42 PM   #20
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Even royal flushes aren't safe; they could have five-of-a-kind.

Last edited by PokerPrince; 03-14-2018 at 02:05 PM.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:47 PM   #21
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by branch0095 View Post
Not trying to dog anyone, but for the life of me I can't understand the need of a thread for a situation like this. You have top set, you lose to exactly one hand, you're calling off less than 50bb, and you're getting almost direct odds to call against the nuts.
This. Just quit poker if this thread is for real. Not even kidding.
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:49 PM   #22
bhtong
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

If you think she always has 56 here then you do not have pot odds to call. However the if you think she could be shoving with 2 pair smaller sets or has some bluff in her range then this is a clear call.
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:06 PM   #23
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

And had she shoved flop who would have folded?


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Old 03-14-2018, 02:45 PM   #24
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmccoy87 View Post
Should we count the combos? Let's assume villain only does this with a set or better.

33 - 3
44 - 3
77 - 3
56s - 4

We beat over 2/3 of her value range, and this doesn't include QQ/KK/AA. Add in any bluffs she may have. There's a handful of 34s in her range too, I guess. Even if we are up against 56s we still have some decent equity with 10 outs.
Go ahead and give her all 56o combos too just for fun, and this still a snap call stand on your chair and do a flying elbow drop on the table.
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:45 PM   #25
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Re: 1/2 Can we possibly fold top set here?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhtong View Post
If you think she always has 56 here then you do not have pot odds to call. However the if you think she could be shoving with 2 pair smaller sets or has some bluff in her range then this is a clear call.
Were getting direct odds to draw to the nuts with 19%-20% eq and getting 4.5:1 on our money. We're sitting fine against 56.
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