An annoying hand from last night where I got put in a nasty spot.. V is a reg who plays a wide range preflop but is pretty solid postflop. He views Hero as super tight/solid and in the past, has just flatted my UTG open with JJ in UTG1, or raised/flatted my 3! with AK preflop. That hand went down as follows, which illustrates that he doesn’t turn his hand into a bluff when I check to him after taking an aggressive action on an earlier street:

V $10 BTN, H $40 BB with KK, V flats.
Flop ($80): J85r
H $45, V calls
Turn ($170): 3x
H checks, V checks
River ($170): Ax
H $30, V calls and shows AKo

OTTH...

UTG ($250) straddles $4,
UTG1 whale ($290) limps $4,
Hero, UTG2 ($650) raises $20 with AcKd,
V, MP/CO ($400) has 4 white chips ready to limp like he does 90% of hands but sees H raise and puts in 4 red instead,
BTN, SB, BB ($300-400 stacks) call,
UTG calls.

Flop ($140): Ks3c2s
Check, check, check, check, Hero decides to play a little cautious since it’s so multi-way and the board is fairly dry and bets $50, V to my immediate left calls, others fold

Turn ($240): As
Hero checks, V bets $100, Hero ???

On the surface, my hand looks great and worth a bet again but it just feels like garbage when I think about it’s relative strength to V’s range that called next to act with 5 others to act behind on the flop. I just can’t find a turn bluff in that range.

Both the straight and flush draws get there, he isn’t going to turn Kx into a bluff, and isn’t calling a turn bet with worse. So I don’t see any point of betting except to charge very few hands in his range that contain a single spade. At best, we chop with AK but it’s unlikely based on his intention to limp preflop. Moreover, it doesn’t seem like we have the direct or implied odds to draw to a 4-outer as he is capable of folding spades if I lead an ace/king river.

Can we make the exploitative hero fold with top two?

You missed a bet ott in HH1.

I would definitely size up flop with these villains in the hand, you're definitely missing out on value by betting 1/3 pot.

Turn I think x-c or b-f are both fine options. X-f this turn is too tight, especially with that price. I can get behind folding an unimproved river though.

Can't he have K2s, K3s, A2s, A3s?

V can be bluffing/over valuing his hand (especially since you checked), never folding top of my range here.

Also A3o, A2o

Just call and see a river.

This. Why would you ever check here? Seems really bad.

No, he’s raising K2s, K3s (in addition to 22/33) and not peeling 2nd or 3rd pair OTF.

He folds those preflop. He’s loose but not a donk to play A2o/A3o for $20.

Agreed it was super FPS.

Start by ranging the villain. Their range is capped, obviously, because they were going to limp and then they chose to flat your iso raise. (Raise bigger, IMO, like to $25 at the very least, maybe even to $35.) So what do they have? Weak suited aces, suited connectors, pocket pairs up through TT or maybe even JJ, and suited broadways. Maybe hands like AJo or KQo, and suited gappers like J9s and T8s. So the overall range looks like { JJ-22, AJs-A2s ,KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs-J9s, T9s-T8s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AQo-AJo, KQo }.

We flop Ks 3c 2s. The hands in the villain's range that hit this flop are six combos of 33 and 22 for flopped sets, 12 combos of KQ, KJs, and KTs for top pair, 19 flush draws, and (maybe) A5s, A4s, and 65s for gutshots.

We bet, only the villain calls, and the turn is As.

The villain bets 40% of the pot. What does the villain have here? Ten flush combos and six set combos, and maybe four combos of A4s and A5s, plus the possibility of a semibluff with KxQs (2 combos). The only hands of theirs that we beat are the KxQs and those increasingly unlikely A5s and A4s.

We are getting immediate odds of 340:100 and need 22.7% equity to call (neglecting river action). We've got something like 17% equity, *if* the villain is semibluffing KxQs. Without it we are toast, and drawing to whatever aces and kings are left in the deck. You have to ask yourself, "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do you?

This looks like a fold to me, and the only thing that would turn it to a call is button-clicking spazz factor. There's not enough of that in a player who plays solid postflop.

Fold.