I've found myself in this spot a few times over the last couple weeks. Wanted to get some input on which factors I should be considering when I make a decision on the turn.

First example:

Wednesday afternoon at MGM. Table is seven handed. I've just sat down (i.e. very first hand). I appear to be the only player at the table under the age of 45.

Villain in this hand is a late 40s white guy wearing a sweater. Appearance seems conservative.

Hero is a white guy in his late twenties. Wearing a track jacket and listening to music on my phone with one earbud.

Folds to hero in CO. I raise to $12 with T 8. Villain calls OTB, blinds fold. $23 in pot after drop.

Flop 2 4 7. Hero bets $16, villain calls. $55 in pot.

Mainly I'm hoping to represent a pocket pair and fold out the unpaired big cards in villain's range. When he calls I think he can have a lot of pocket pairs; maybe as wide as 88+ if he likes to trap with his big pairs.

Turn T. Hero ???

Now that I suddenly go from air to some showdown value, is it very standard to x/c here rather than bet? The more I think about it, it might be very difficult for me to b/f to get value from the 88/99 in his range if I see a ten peel off and continue barreling. I also shouldn't mind a check back in order to pot control, esp considering that I'll have kicker problems if we both hit the ten.

just check for pot control. call if V bets, reeval river. Maybe blocker bet 1/5-1/6 pot.

I prefer a 1/2 pot bet here then evaluate. I'd rather ch/f here than ch/c against an unknown villain. Villain folding on the turn is not a terrible result, we are out of position, and the river is not going to be easy to play.

We are making a small bet on the turn for value and to protect our equity. It also has the added bonus of helping to define our opponent's hand much better than checking would.

If he calls, I am paying close attention to see if I can pick up any strength or weakness from him and proceeding accordingly on the river.


Another option is to check the turn and then bet the river for value if Villain checks behind on turn.

Bet the turn for value. here. There's no crazy draws and I'm not trying to blow him out of the pot. I'd bet $25. I think this gets looks up by 78 -A7 as well as pocket 8s and 9s. I'm probably betting most rivers for value as well.

It depends on V's range (so if he plays SC, ATC, etc). But since you just sat down and couldn't have had that info, I would lead out ott for about 1/2 pot for value, check & re-eval river (probably can't call a bet unless you improve) - there are way more combos of straight draws, suited connectors that just hit a pair, PPs under tens, and over cards that he's floating with (in this spot, you can assign him a wider range as he's an unknown), than a set, an over pair, or a bigger 10.

You also don't have to worry about him not calling with worse. That T just seems so unlikely to improve your hand that he will call with a lot more hands

But I just played in an ATC game (eg. 3 people in a $17 raise pf pot, checked it down and all chopped with 45o, 35o, and 46o) so my thinking might be distorted here as it would def be right to bet 8T at that game.

grunch: check/evaluate

if you're against a bunch of nits and omc's i like the raise pre

i'm fine with the cbet on this board (or pretty much any board against what we're reading as probably conservative villain).

i'd probably have given up on the hand if you didn't hit the turn. now i'd go for a check with showdown value trying for pot control. however, if villain comes back with a big bet i may still fold. i'd probably be trying to guess if he ever bluffs (wouldn't put that read on an old guy in a sweater unless shown otherwise) and if i thought he'd bet big on the river. so probably call off a small-ish bet and try to showdown (unless you improve of course).

He probably has a ton of pocket pairs in his range and could possibly be peeling with overs. I'd b/f against an unknown but c/c if I had a read he was floating. 99-55 aren't folding turn on this board and if he somehow has 7x that isn't folding either.

I think check calling turn is optimal and on blank rivers throwing out a value bet if nothing happened on the turn and the river is a blank

Against an aggro villain, now that you have some SDV, I would check/call a turn. But since you are readless & he seems conservative, I'd just x/f. It seems weak but I don't like playing marginal hands against unknown opponents OOP if they start betting at me.

The main reason for x/f is not just that he has a lot of equity; it's that I can't come up with a good river plan. If overcards come they hit his range. If undercards come he still has JJ/QQ in his range and we aren't gettung any value from AJ+/KJ+. Calling the turn and x/f the river sucks, so does calling the turn and b/f the river, and x/c the river. If we bet the river and he calls we are probably in bad shape. I guess we can call the turn and pray the river checks through but that's so, so weak because we have no control of our situation.

Since you just sat down, I want to assume the worst and play tight until you get some reads.

Speaking of playing tight, this is why I would avoid playing T8s right when you sit down. These hands are great if the stacks are deep and we can read our opponents, but suck in situations like this one. So I really think this is preflop fold.

Yeah, this is another consideration I had later. Without reads and OOP this can bring about a lot of tough spots.

b/f>x/f>>>>x/c. IMO.


I'd rather bet the turn then check/call the river than check/call the turn. Is villain really betting 7x, 4x, or 2x if we check the turn to him? Is he really turning one of the few draws out there into a bluff? No, he is probably taking the free card and trying to get to showdown cheaper. Villain folding something like A4o, or 79s on the turn is just fine if he's never going to put in any more money anyway. Better that he folds the turn than we give him a free shot at his 5 outs and possibly pay off a bet on the river when he hits.

I prefer b/f on this board. The T isn't a scare card so he should call again with 7x and PPs. We probably have the best hand, but a lot of bad cards can come on the river that prevent us from getting value (or give him a better hand with a random float).

The situation would be different if you had AK and the turn was an ace.

Grunch: Bet/fold for $d25-$30.

We can still get value out of A7, K7, 56, 35, type hands. Maybe even some 88-99 that just doesn't believe us. It's pretty unlikely that we are going to get raised by worse here. So, we can fold very confidently if we get raised.

Feels pretty cut and dry to me.

River is a bit tougher though.
Can't decide if I want to block/fold for like 1/4-1/3 pot, or check/fold or check/call on blank rivers. Would be V dependant and how likely they are to bluff with missed draws.
But I think they are the most likely in that order.

check

bet almost any river if he checks back

i would almost always c/c if he bets and then c/soul read river unless its a 10 or 8 in case i would bet

Please sit at my table

$30 for value on the turn.

Plenty of hands will give you value now.

J-A scare cards can come on the river.

I really dislike c/c here. You're just letting A3, A5, 65 take a free card, and 55, 66, 76, 87 probably aren't going to bet into you. When you check the turn, you lose out on value against draws and made hands, and if plan to c/c, well that's probably the worst option of all because you're getting value towned too often by the strongest hands in his range.

Can anyone whose suggesting b/f (and I feel like this is a close second best) come up with a plan they are comfortable with on the river if he calls?

There are three scenarios:

1) A card less than T comes on the river -- 29 cards

2) A card greater than T comes -- 16 cards

3) Another T comes -- 2 cards

I'd like to be convinced that b/f is good simply because I like b/f. We'll never be totally comfortable (even a T gives us a strong made hand with disgusting RIO), but if we have a good plan we can be comfortable with discomfort which is part if being a good poker player. People suggesting b/f need to have a river plan imo.

Good discussion so far. Let's talk a little more about the plan for river. Rather than present a hypothetical I'll just give partial results:

Turn: 2 4 7 T. Hero bets $25, villain quickly calls. $105 in pot.

River 2 4 7 T 2. Hero ???

Choose a line (i.e. b/f, x/c, x/f, x/evaluate, etc). If you decide to x/evaluate, discuss both the bet sizing and information you would use to decide between a call and fold.

I am way more comfortable with a x/c on the river than I was on the turn. At this point it's much much more likely that he will turn a missed draw into a bluff. With that said, I think it's close between x/c and x/f on river. It is a little too optimistic to expect villain to call a 3rd barrel on the river with worse. I think we are good a lot of the time here, and I think if we check, villain will check behind a vast majority of the time.

I guess my "official" answer is check expecting to get to showdown, and be very surprised/soul read if he bets. Tough to say exactly how I am reacting to specific bet sizes, it would mostly be based on how I perceived him in game. If he tanks/bets pot, I am more likely to fold than if he quickly bets 1/2 pot.

I think your options are to b/f something like $35 (to get thin value from 7x, 4s, 66, 55, etc.) or c/decide. If you c/decide, I'd probably call only a half pot bet or smaller (getting at least 3:1) and fold to anything larger. Villain will check behind with made hands we beat, and it is possible he has some bluffs with whiffed draws like 65, A3, A5, 53s, 63s.

But I'd definitely go for the small bet/fold for value for a bunch of reasons.

You're gonna make money in this game value-betting, putting out a value bet gives you a chance to get value from his entire range (whereas he will check behind with so many hands you beat), you have no idea if he's likely to bluff whiffed straight draws or if his pre-flop range is so wide to include really all that many of them, etc.

People were talking about check calling blank rivers before, and it got me thinking what exactly is a blank river here? On that board, we arent gunna like any low or high cards very much. I actually thought to myself maybe a 2 will be the next best card to an 8, and maybe even better than 10.

if V is a level 1 thinker, i bet 45-50 to squeeze some value from a none-T pair, because he cant fold his hand.

If V is level 2, then i bet 75 to rep two overs, because if V thinks he was good ott, river doesnt really change anything and it just looks bluffy.

If V is level 3, then i check call him to catch some missed draw bluffs or fold to a value bet depending on read at the time.

Against an unknown id go bet/fold $45/50. Give him 3:1 to call with his middle pair.

Would've liked a little bigger bet on the turn but as played it's another b/f.

The only draws that missed are 56s/68s/53s so I don't like the idea of checking to induce bluffs and worse is never betting for value when checked to, not to mention not all players bluff their missed draws on the river especially if he looks conservative. We would've heard from sets on the turn so the only hands that beat us are JJ and Tx that was floating flop with overs and we should get calls from 99/88/7x and possibly 55/66/4x if he's a station.

B/f $50 looks good.

This is basically word for word what I was going to say. I'm curious as to if you fire if an A hits ott, and what you do on a blank river if you got called.

I'm betting, for protection as well as value. He might have floated us with ace rag (gutshot straight draw + 1 over card) or possibly just two high cards.

Super easy value bet. 2/3 pot.