I think I butchered this hand but not sure how badly. Would appreciate comments on line and sizing.
Hero - HJ, $350
V1 - CO, $305 - very lag, **** pre-flop hand selection, probably plays 50%+ of hands. Seems like a fish but probably has some decent post-flop skills because he seems to be a winner in the game.
V2 - BTN, covers, solid winner.
2 limpers and hero raises to $15 with KJhh (okay?), CO, BTN and limpers calls.
Flop ($78) 4d 7h 9h, check, check, hero bets $55 (okay?, should we just be checking this board 5 ways?), CO calls, BTN calls, limpers fold.
Turn ($243) Ad
What's best here? I can think of arguments for check/fold, check/call, going all in. Hero bets $125 (in hindsight I'm feeling like this was the worst line).
CO shoves for $130 more, BTN folds... Hero... We need 17.8% equity to break even. Seems super close but I guess we fold (obviously I didn't) since he can have better FDs and probably not many pairs < A.
Feel like I messed up this hand big time but would love to hear people's thoughts on the major inflection points and where it all went wrong.
I think this hand is a train wreak. You are not even drawing to the nuts or have some made hand + flush-draw .. or something more substantial to have an escape hatch, so to speak. If you read TonyG's poker notes and manuscripts, in his strategy he tells everyone: Never overplay KJ.
Now, I think villain's got left $110 after he's calling your last turn bet of $125.
After his shove the pot is $602 and you have to call $110 more. This is a clear example when some players get in trouble by building big pots and find themselves with good odds to call but being way behind into the bottom of the pit. If you want to call and gamble,.. wtf? go ahead,.. but I'm telling right now.., this is not a situation or a strategy that will make you any money in the future. If you lose this hand you'll have to make back the $300 lost some other ways, but you'll never make it back the way you played this hand. ..., fuggetaboutit !.., man
This hand is a great example of how important bet sizing is.
Bet smaller on flop, like 1/2 pot should be fine.
As played turn betting 1/2 pot is the worst possible sizing. If villain jams (which turned out to happen in this hand) then you have almost enough but not quite odds to call the jam, which is a really ****ty situation to be in.
Consider either jamming the turn, betting turn really small, or just x/f the turn.
Lean towards jamming the turn if you think villains will have a lot of 9x, 7x, TT, 88 etc that will fold to your jam but will still peel if you bet really small.
Lean towards betting turn really small if you think villains have a lot of weak draws like T8o, 68o, JTo, weaker flush draws in their range preflop and would call the flop.
Lean towards x/f the turn if you think your villains are more likely to only call flop with really strong hands like sets (that decided not to slowplay)/really good draws that didn't raise flop such as Axhh.
If I had to choose without much info on villains going on only the info you provided I would lean towards jamming turn.
Preflop is fine if $15 will usually fold the table or get you heads up. The flop bet is OK but you should check sometimes also because the pot is so big. Bet sizing on the flop should be smaller, $35/$40 is better in an already bloated pot.
After that give up. Two better then average opponents called after you, turn card is just bad for your actual hand and you don't even have a nut draw.
IP I would take the card not expecting enough folds 3-ways, but OOP checking and having to fold our equity when someone bets sucks. Jam the turn. Sucks when someone has Ahxh, but I'd expect both a LAG and a solid winner to 3-bet those pre-flop quite often from those positions.
I'd either bet flop smaller or check it back. We're very unlikely to pick up the pot by betting, so no impetus to bet large. If we bet, it's mostly to get a free card and thin the herd so that spiking a J or K is more likely to win it for us.
If one or more opponents are aggressive or have x/r, I'd be more inclined to check it back.
If we get two callers, and a free card, our bet is roughly free, since we're only 2:1 against hitting the flush.
But all in all, I would bet this for $40. I think $55 is a mistake, but not horrible.
When we get two callers behind us, our plan is kinda out the window. When the A comes, we have to x/f the turn unless we're getting decent odds to hit the flush.
Betting here is pretty bad. The A isn't scary enough to want to try to bluff two people that have position on us and if we're lucky it'll get checked around and we can take a look at a free river.
When V jams, you have to fold. You're getting 490:130 on the call, which isn't enough even if your draw were to the nuts. K and J are very unlikely to be good.
Edit:I x/f the flop, but jamming is better than betting anything less. I generally like me some semi-bluffing, but I don't think this is a great spot.
Last edited by Case2; 08-27-2017 at 07:51 PM.
Reason: After reading responses
Pre is good. Once we go 5-way though I'm not betting a garbage flop like this. X/evaluate flop. We can get lots of information and often will be priced in to see the turn due to poor bet sizing.
I would bet flop if it was Qxxhh or Q9xhh or something like that where top card is a Broadway that we block lots of combos to + can credibly rep the top pair betting into 4 players. I prefer Q-hi to A-hi because it gives us a 3-straight and we still have an overcard to the board for additional equity. When we bet A-hi and get called we are drawing much thinner and basically need to hit or flush.
Bet/folding this flop is just pissing away our equity and I never expect our c-bet to get thru on this flop 5-way.
Preflop is fine if $15 will usually fold the table or get you heads up. The flop bet is OK but you should check sometimes also because the pot is so big. Bet sizing on the flop should be smaller, $35/$40 is better in an already bloated pot.
After that give up. Two better then average opponents called after you, turn card is just bad for your actual hand and you don't even have a nut draw.
