Villain is a younger heavy set guy, but a decent thinking player and definitely a winner in this game. I just started playing in this casino couple of weeks back, but have played with the villain once before and I think he views me as a thinking solid player.

At the start of the hand we both have 300+bb

Pre-flop: couple of limpers i make it 15 on the button with JT, villain calls in bb and others fold.

Flop: 842 with one

I bet 15, villain cr 45. I call. I dont think he ever plays a set like this on this kind of a board. He has not done much cr, but he does not look to fast play big hands.

I think cbet here is ok.. Should i just give up to the cr? It feels weak on a board like this..

Turn (pot ~120) 6c.. Villain checks pretty quickly and I bet 85.. He thinks for a while (30sec?) and calls..


River (pot 290) 9d.. Villain checks again pretty quick and I bet 145.


Thoughts?

I dont do much bluffing in these types of games, but this felt like a pretty good spot. I think I would play TT+ this way as well..

Re-Raises. Snap checks the turn. Calls. Snap checks the River..You bet, I'm guessing he makes the call.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I'm thinking more towards potting the River, possibly over? I don't see why he wouldn't call the 145 on the River.

I think this line is pretty spewy. Not sure why you called the c/r. You have some back door draws but this is an RIO play. Floating a c/r is not good at LLSNL.

Personally, I am not sure I call that check-raise on the flop but being that you did, I will move on from that.

When he checks the turn, I like your turn bet but have a problem with that river bet. Think you need to bet significantly more than 50% of the pot to really commit to this bluff. Looking at the line he took, I can see him having 1010 - QQ so think a pot sized bet would have been your best play here.

V isn't folding an 8, and your line doesn't make sense with an value hand.

Also, what does the V being "heavy set" have anything to do with this hand?

I also fold to the flop c/r, unless I've been stealing a hell of a lot of small pots lately (in which case I probably don't bet it in the first place.)

As played, turn is good but river is a spew. If you're gonna do it, overbet it. I think you needed an A, K, or Q to fall on turn or river for this sizing to be credible enough to be profitable.

from a GTO point of view, the least exploitable thing in this kind of spots once villains range is capped is to bet full pot, and make the bluff less frequently in general.
i think once you commited yourself to that line, you gotta bomb the river as well.

betting half pot here obv widens your value range, and prob looks value-ish to most live players in comparison to a full pot bet which has the effect of seen as polarized, but villain being a thinking player and viewing you as a thinking player as well should understand pot odds enough to notice that a full pot bet here is way more intimidating and harder to combat against than a half pot value-ish looking bet. i don´t know if you though true all that in playing time though

in general, i think you found a good line and put lots of pressure on villain´s weak range although i somewhat dislike your river sizing, and you also picked the right guy to do it.
nh, nice bluff imo.

either 3 bet flop or fold calling sux balls

Good point. If you trust your read that he'd never play a set like this, making it $120 to go otf is a stronger (and slightly cheaper) play than barreling the turn.

As far as thinking players are concerned, heavy set slightly increases the likelihood that he has extensive experience playing online imo... Which makes him more likely to call down light here.

If this board is rainbow, then any good player would realize that a flop 3 bet pretty much reps nothing. Even with top set i would only be calling the raise to keep his bluffs in.

I actually kind of like the float, against a thinking player. Definitely good bet on turn. You need to go at least 2/3 psb on river though.

Either that or just fold to his raise otf

Are we thinking that he is picking a spot to bluff here with this? Keeping to a rare occasion? The more and more I think about it, the more and more I think I would have folded here.

This. your line here is just spew and i would just fold to the CR. you dont have that great of a draw, just a couple runner runners and hitting top pair may not be good. on river either bluff huge or check behind. also what makes you think he cant have a set here when he CRs flop? yes its hard to flop a set but we still have to include some combos of sets unless we have a read he slow plays sets. as played his hand looks like 99-QQ. i would just give up tbh on river

also i dont like bluffing turn as well because turn doesnt improve your perceived range and you often have to fire three barrels which may not work as often as you'd think anyways. a great barrel card is any Q, K, or A after his flop CR check turn line, but on this flop, you dont have much potential and are really relying on fold equity

Either 3bet flop or fold. Don't like the float because he'll c/r flop with lots of hands that dominate ours and we have to continue when we hit the turn or he'll just barrel turn and we're forced to fold.

As played I think the bluff is ok as he'll have to put us on a complete float for his hero to be profitable, which ironically is what's going on here. His line looks like 56s or 76s. Don't think 8x takes this line.

I'm never continuing past the flop in that spot.

Repeat after me: they are not playing back at you, they are not playing back at you

Sure, sometimes they are, but not nearly often enough that you need to go crazy FPS and start floating checkraises.

Thanks for the input, he had K8s and tank called.. As a lot of you said, probably best to let the flop go.

I was a bit surprised he cr with that hand, I wasn't shocked he played pf even though i don't think its great.

I think I could play JJ+ the same way.. He took a bit of time calling on the turn, and I really think he was genuinely thinking about it, not hollywooding.. Given that, I should have bet more on the river.