Game is 1/2 NLHE. Hero with about $270 is in late position. Middle position with about $350 opens with $12. I call with 22, BB calls, early position calls. $49 in pot
Flop comes 2h 4h 9s. BB and EP check to MP who bets $20. I raise 3X, BB and EP fold, MP RR to $120.
Hero??
I've never played with MP before, but he struck me as a conservative player and my read of him was that he was probably very strong. I knew there was a good chance tof 44 or 99, but also possible AKh or AQh, or even AA, KK, although I doubt this particular opponent would 3 bet on the flop with overpair.
Another thing to consider as we were playing with a bad beat jackpot which was up to 32K. From the flop i'm of course considering that I could be up against 44, or 99, so according to my calculations, the equity there is only about $17 for the bad beat jackpot. (ie, 22.5 to 1 against for the first quad card, then 44 to 1 against for the second quad card) Does that sound about right? Any constructive comments would be appreciated.
Last edited by Garick; 05-02-2019 at 01:47 PM.
Reason: removed results
Welcome to the forum, OP. Please don't include results until after discussion dies down. It biases people's responses. That includes your final action, not just V's response or card runout. I edited them out for you. Please wait at least a day after the OP before revealing.
Ahxh, pocket 9s+ could all take this line, you lose to exactly 1. Given this is the preflop raiser and not a caller I think pocket 4s are less likely in MP so I jam without a second thought considering how wet the board is.
Welcome to the forum, OP. Please don't include results until after discussion dies down. It biases people's responses. That includes your final action, not just V's response or card runout. I edited them out for you. Please wait at least a day after the OP before revealing.
Ahxh, pocket 9s+ could all take this line, you lose to exactly 1. Given this is the preflop raiser and not a caller I think pocket 4s are less likely in MP so I jam without a second thought considering how wet the board is.
In this particular game there are lots of players who would play 44, or even 23o 6x. But, as I mentioned, this young chap who I never saw before seemed quite conservative, and he looked like he came in his pants when i 3x his bet on the flop. So under those circumstances I agree 99 was most likely the only hand I'm losing to.
It definitely looks like V is milking you here but for 135bb i’m Just never folding a set. He’s have to expose his hand or be an ultra Uber not proven over many hours. Stack off and ride the variance train.
I used to almost always play PPs in my underground games, it can work if people are very sticky post, in a normal casino game just muck it pre you will do better.
55+ is ok, 22 is very trash hand.
Last edited by Garick; 05-02-2019 at 06:16 PM.
Reason: ref to results
Rip it, not close. 2h on the board and mp is opener, 99 is the only hand hero should lose to, while villain can overplay overpair, flush draws and all sorts of random spazz.
