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1/2 bottom set deep GROSS 1/2 bottom set deep GROSS

02-08-2015 , 11:16 PM
Villain (CO): late 20s white man; reg with many fishy tendencies such as calling down too much, being too loose pre, raising huge with JJ+ pre when there are limpers to "avoid seeing a flop" and limp reraising monsters in EP; but talks about implied odds and pot control as if he's solid ($850)
Hero (EP): mid 20s asian man; TAG reg ($650)

Two limpers to hero who makes it $16 in EP with 44. Four callers including villain in the CO, BB, and the EP limpers.

Flop: KJ4 ($81)

Checked to hero who bets $55. Villain calls and everyone else folds.

Turn: 7 ($186)

Hero bets $125. Villain snap shoves for effectively over $450 on top.

I think it's safe to say villain does not have 77. He might call down too much sometimes but someone who talks about implied odds is not gonna station that 5 way. Also he may or may not 3 bet KK pre cause he does hate seeing multiway flops with big pairs. I did open in EP though and since we're deep he might be flatting. And is someone who's scared of seeing a multiway flop with big pairs really gonna not raise a set on that wet flop? I'm beat by 6 combos of KK/JJ (maybe 4 or 5 if he 3 bets KK sometimes). He can be overplaying KJ here or have a combo draw like AQ, QT, etc which unfortunately still have good equity vs my set. Would he really snap shove with a nutted hand like KK/JJ? I'm getting almost 2-1 on a call.
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02-08-2015 , 11:32 PM
puke-call.

I'm heavily discounting KK here. I think he's 3-betting that preflop. If he likes to raise huge with JJ, I doubt he's smooth-calling with "ace magnets" in position.

I'm discounting JJ, but not as much. He could definitely be just calling with jacks.

I think KJ is square in his range. He's loose pre. KJ are pretty painted cards. He has position. On the flop, he figures he's way ahead (blockers against Kings and Jacks, and c'mon you don't have 4s here). He calls with the plan of making a delayed raise on the turn against your probably-ace-king.

AQss and Q10ss are less likely. He's more likely to raise those on the flop than after seeing a blank turn.

He can certainly show up with JJ here, but I think his range is weighted toward KJ. I call.
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02-09-2015 , 12:07 AM
Why is k7 of spades not in his range? Is that too loose for him? Honestly, that hand makes the most sense. He doesn't raise flop bc of other people behind him and he suddenly thinks omgz I has two pair and can stack aces or ak!!! I really can't imagine jj playing to a flat without closing action. Maybe I'm projecting that, however. I agree with the other poster that his range is weighted towards two pair and combo draws likely raise flop. I'm not dancing in the streets excited about the call, but I think it's +EV.
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02-09-2015 , 12:14 AM
Call. Villain shoves with so many semi-bluffs. Villain probably 3bets with KK so we only really fear the 3 JJ combos.
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02-09-2015 , 12:33 AM
usually i would puke everywhere in this spot, but how in the world can villain have KK/JJ here given description.

There are 3 combos of KK + 3 JJ. There are 2 combos of KJs and 7 combos of KJo.

Board: Kd Js 4s 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.545% 44.55% 00.00% 882 0.00 { KK, JJ, KJs, KcJd, KcJh, KhJc, KhJd, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh }
Hand 1: 55.455% 55.45% 00.00% 1098 0.00 { 44 }

But honestly, if he did have KK and played this way, He would more likely have KsKx so..

Board: Kd Js 4s 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.747% 40.75% 00.00% 753 0.00 { KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, JJ, KJs, KcJd, KcJh, KhJc, KhJd, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh }
Hand 1: 59.253% 59.25% 00.00% 1095 0.00 { 44 }


Also, how many times does he have JJ here? I mean, flatting your 16 with JJ is fine. Flop however is a different story since there are so many draws out there. (JJ vs draw+gs, draw+pair is 30-33%, QsTs is 40%. Whereas KJ is 37-45% vs the same hands).

Also, while your hand looks really strong, it also looks like 1 pair hands as well. Your range in this spot is like AK/AA/JJ/KK. Because there are only 6 combos of KK+JJ (and only 2 combos total if he has KJ), and there are 6 combos of AA and 12 combos of AK, it's 3 to 1 that you have AA/AK than JJ/KK (or 9 to 1 if he has KJ).

Although if villain has KJ and thinks you have AK/AA/KK/JJ, he is playing this hand pretty terribly, but then again, lol live players/regs (esp at 1/2).

I don't hate the spot, I don't love it, but you can't fold. Your hand value is way too strong.
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02-09-2015 , 05:55 AM
I love it. Snnaaaaaaaaaaapppppp!
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02-09-2015 , 06:17 AM
I'd say KJ is definitely much more in his range here than KK, and there are plenty of semi-bluffs he can be jamming with...you have flopped about as good as you could have wanted here playing this PF for an open and then betting the flop and turn...pretty much calling here all the time.
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02-09-2015 , 06:57 AM
Villain as described can certainly slowplay a set on this flop. Assuming otherwise is projecting thought processes onto him he doesn't possess. You don't know exactly what his thought process on the flop with KK or JJ would be and you have to figure this player/player type will raise sets some % of the time, so you can discount those hands, but eliminating them from his range entirely is wrong. 77 is also possible for someone who calls down too much (though again discounted as he would often fold it on the flop). Other possible discounted hands: KJ, K7, combo draws.

My guess for his range would be something like: KK (1 combo), JJ (2), 77 (1) KJ (3), Ks7s (1), 6s5s (1). Easy call against that range.
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02-09-2015 , 08:04 AM
This isn't gross at all it's a call for sure.
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02-09-2015 , 08:43 AM
V has done the work for you and put his chips in the middle. You're only losing to KK, JJ, and 77. Vs range includes a lot of draws, some two pair hands, AA, AK, and more.
I think this is a call. There is a chance that V slowplayed a big set, but folding bottom set to typical LLSNL players on this board is the wrong play unless you have a big read on V that he has the monster here.
If you get coolered for 325bb, that's the worst but your hand is disguised and way ahead of his range.
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02-09-2015 , 10:39 AM
If this is gross you are being results oriented. Snap call here.
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02-09-2015 , 11:36 AM
After your preflop description, not sure how you could fold here. The draws are MUCH more likely in his range than any hand that has you beat right now.

I think you're probably worried more in this spot because of stack sizes. If all dollar amounts were proportionately whittled down, and this was a $60 pot, you'd probably snap call.
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02-09-2015 , 11:46 AM
For the people saying this isn't gross, how often do you see people stuffing in 'almost 300bb with less than the very top of their range? Not too often.

However, I'm still calling and really hope he spazzing withal combo draw or has KJ. Don't think I can get away here unless the guy is a total nit.
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02-09-2015 , 11:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian O'Nolan
Villain as described can certainly slowplay a set on this flop. Assuming otherwise is projecting thought processes onto him he doesn't possess. You don't know exactly what his thought process on the flop with KK or JJ would be and you have to figure this player/player type will raise sets some % of the time, so you can discount those hands, but eliminating them from his range entirely is wrong. 77 is also possible for someone who calls down too much (though again discounted as he would often fold it on the flop). Other possible discounted hands: KJ, K7, combo draws.

My guess for his range would be something like: KK (1 combo), JJ (2), 77 (1) KJ (3), Ks7s (1), 6s5s (1). Easy call against that range.
I basically agree with where you end up, but want to quibble with one small point: I think villain could definitely have slowplayed KK or JJ on the flop. But to do so, he would've had to just call with them preflop. That's the part that I think we should pretty heavily discount (particularly for KK).

But that's probably just a longwinded way of saying "yep, 1 combo KK vs 2 combos JJ."
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02-09-2015 , 12:02 PM
In a weird way your hand strength is under-repped here. I guarantee he's not expecting you to show up with 44 here. Most people don't open small pocket pairs from EP snd most people don't fast play a set when they have one. He's most likely going to think you have AA or AK here and for that reason you're beating a lot of his range which he might think is currently golden. You have to call.

Also, how quickly did V call your flop bet? Pay attention to pacing. I highly doubt 77 would snap call your $55 flop bet when a KJ4 pops out since it smacks your range. If he's calling with 77 he's most likely tanking for a second or two and fondling his chips before tossing them in.
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02-09-2015 , 02:23 PM
JJ is almost impossible here, especially given V description, unless he's the type to set mine with JJ. Probably can heavily weight combos to KJ, K7sooooted. K4 is gonna raise that flop because ZOMG FLUSH DRAW!!!

Calling all day every day here without a second thought. Set over set happens, sorry if he forgot to 3! KK.
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