1/2 Borgata

Hero: Young, 20-year oldish asian. Been card dead tonight (72o on BTN, etc.). Been here for 5 orbits, played 4 hands. None have been to showdown. 3-bet with AK once, raised 64s from BTN, and 2 other small hands. Have not made a pair yet tonight, but villain does not know that. Bought in 200, sitting on 275. Probably perceived as fairly tight, but aggro.

Villain: Middle aged asian. Seems competent. Called 3 streets with KTo on a K high board against a woman who triple barreled a whiffed flush draw (reasoned "if you didn't raise preflop, you probably don't have AK, etc." Sitting on ~400 UTG.

Neither player has been out of line tonight.

Hero on HJ. 1 limp to hero, who looks down at QTcc in HJ and raises to 12. BTN calls, both blinds call, and V calls (lol). Hero is done with this hand at this point unless he flops gin.

Pot 60$. Flop: QQ2r
3 checks to hero, hero bets 40$. Folds to villain who calls. Hero's range here should be TT+, any Q. I give V a range of 22-99 (I think he opens anything better). I discount Q's since I think he leads or c/r those.

Pot 140$. Turn: QQ2K, two spades.
V reaches for chips, pauses, then checks. IME this is usually weakness. I put him on 33-99. Probably doesn't like the K that much. I think if I bet, I fold out most of that range. I think his river betting range is wider than his turn calling range (I would be c-betting into 4 players, leading turn). I check behind (for slight pot control too).

River: 8s making 3 spades.
Villain leads 100.

Hero??

I was ready to snap off 60-80, but 100 in LLSNL is a "big" bet. V seemed pretty strong here. What can he have? Did he bink 88? Better Q?

V's range preflop is: [33-99, KQ, QJ]

My check on the turn underreps my hand, and V should have me on a range of [TT+, AQ, AK]. With trip queens here, I'm not really near the bottom of my range here.

Thoughts?

bet 100 on the turn yourself.

as played, you should call.

I like checking the flop, because barely anything we beat continues. And then going for 2 streets of value while letting guys improve.

AP, bet ott.

AP, otr, what has this V done in the past on rivers? A lot of people have no idea how much is in the pot, so when they're faced with a river bet they seem to think "ah, $X is too much" with no regard to what % of the pot it is. And when I see regs bet against these types of people otr you know if they're bluffing or not if you think "Can he really think this will get called?" And when it's too big it's a bluff.

Was the KTo hand raised pre? I ask b/c if V called a raised there, KJ/KT hands are in his range here. With the turn check, your hand is clearly under repped, so I'd call.

grunch: call

i like your thinking... and i like that you're ranging every street... well done. i think your hand is under repped and you probably are seen as tight so i wouldn't take bluffs out of V's range. against most players at 1/2nl there are rarely river bluffs.... against thinking players like this there may be some river bluffs. could also be a worse Q. it seems so close that i'd call make him show first.

You wanted pot control and got it, he made your turn bet for you, you have to call. Well done regardless of outcome.

Personally I would have bet $60 on the turn, repping a naked ace that he then barrels into on the river w/ his 99ish hands. Not sure which is better but I'm not afraid of the K totally shutting him down if we're seen as TAG.

I think you have to bet turn in this spot because I think V can still call with the range you put him on. Sure he folds some of the time but he also calls some of the time. I still think you have to call here bc V could easily have a hand like KJ KT and think its good bc of your turn check. But I also know the big bets in small live games generally mean strength. I think your hand is too strong to fold tho. I call but am not excited about it

NH, consistent thought process. I like the sizing made you pause and think. Call anyway.