Villain BB ($300): He's sitting directly to our left, watching a sci-fi TV show on his phone. Seems to be patient / nitty.

Hero SB ($475): Picking my spots, and playing well. Villain is probably aware that I'm playing a thoughtful PF strategy, especially given that we're sitting next to each other.


Hero has AK in the SB. Two very weak players limp, Hero raises to $15, Villain calls $15, one limper folds, the other limper calls $15.

Flop 434

Hero bets $25, Villain raises to $75, limper folds.

Hero?

Pretty easy fold, what are you hoping for by calling or raising? Dude's on his phone watching TV, these nits are almost never raising worse.

I'll wait for others to reply, but I think you're oversimplifying this situation.

Construct a realistic range, then get back to me.

Interesting spot. V’s most likely range is 66-JJ.

If we bet/shove I think he folds a pretty high % of the time.

This raise doesn't make sense for a low pocket pair like 66-TT. If he's got a random spaz bluff then he isn't patient/nitty. A bad nit could raise 66-TT but I don't think it is very likely. The cold call pre is going to be AK, AQ, TT-QQ a huge amount. Then when he raises I think it skews heavily toward a decent overpair.

This is TT+ a huge % of the time, and if we want to bluff him off that then gl. I wouldn't mind a 3bet shove too much but I've made this move a fair number of times and more often than not I'm snapped off. In theory it should work a lot but people just call, especially when they have been sitting there waiting for a hand for so long like nits do.

mdelore is right here. TT might even be discounted for this V. I think you can even see KK and AA depending on the villain, though we obv block this. He isn’t folding. Make a comment about how you were trying to steal to build image and fold.

Nits probably 3-bet QQ+ preflop.

I agree he’s weighted much more towards 99-JJ then other PPs, but I think he has KK/AA ~never and most nits thought process runs to MUBSY when we bet/3! this flop. And when we get called we still have some equity.

If this player is bad enough to raise 99 on the flop then he's also bad enough to flat JJ+ pre. I don't know this players specific leaks but I have to assume hes bad and most of the time when they raise a flop like this they aren't going to fold. Sometimes they do fold their 99, TT hands but like I said they can also just click call because the pot is bloated. I don't know for sure but if you shove like 10% of the time with AK it probably isn't a bad overall gameplan.

But those are different kind of bad player types.

Guys who are nitty enough to flat QQ+ are less likely to raise this flop. They’re passive and won’t jam w/o effective nuts.

Guys who flat 88-JJ can easily raise this board (b/c they are trying to protect equity) and get MUBSY when put to a decision for the last 70% of their stack.

QQ+ on 344r is the effective nuts. Either way we are just randomly guessing based on anecodes/experience what kind of glaring leak this player has and will never really know. If you want to bluff jam AK here a small % of the time it can't be that bad but it's easy to overdo it.

I’d fold. I have noticed sometimes in spots like this if you Hollywood a little before you fold, they will show you what they had. Thing is, he probably has something like pocket 8s and wouldn’t fold to a shove.

This is in-line with my thoughts as well. Since he is paying attention to Hero PF strat, your range contains many combos of missed overs.

If opponent were loose, less skilled, and oop, might be worth a call in an attempt to take pot OTT. Not the case here.

If villain is watching TV, I doubt he has any idea what Hero's preflop strategy is.

Preflop raise is too small.

Why are we only auto folding/shoving on this flop? Aren't we getting around 3-1 on a call? Why can't we peel one if his range is 33 & 66-AA with some random 45ss/A4ss. Value hands will tend to continue to bet on the turn and then we can fold. Also I think the hands that don't make sense may slow down on the turn and then see two cards for a decent price. Maybe i'm wrong?

Check flop

If our plan is to try and hit an A or K then that's 13% likely to happen on turn (6/47) and we need it to happen 25% of the time getting 3:1. I'm not sure we can make up the extra money we need to break even on this call if one of those cards does come.

Anyone that has studied poker knows that paired boards are great for bluffing. If Villain is a thinking player, it could definitely be a bluff.

However, players are watching TV, etc. tend not to be looking for creative bluffing spots. Plus, even if Villain doesn't think your range connects with a 443r flop, he'd had to be concerned about the limper having a 4 or 33 or calling with an overpair.

Nitty players can play 54s, 64s, A4s from the big blind and have a 4. I don't put villain on a 4 as more players trap with hands that strong.

Nitty players also call with all pocket pairs so a range of 55+ is not unreasonable.

I fold:
- Out of position
- Little chance of improving on the turn and good chance Villain shoves all-in.
- Villain is unlikely to be bluffing

IMO, it is either a fold or 3! spot and is going to be read and gameflow dependent. I hate calling unless we are doing so with the idea that we will play for stax OTT repping AA/KK only no matter what comes (most likely by CRAI).

Sorry OP, but you were there and we weren't so this one comes down to you.

Well played, now an easy fold.

Edit: thinking about it more, I don’t mind a jam at all depending on how villain has been playing/reads etc. I wouldn’t make it my default play but there are times where I like the jam.

Results:

Hero shoves, villain folds.

Villain doesn't have any 4x combos in his range. Sure, he might flat some 45, A4 suited hands, but I think his aggression on the flop actually narrows his range to just overpairs (raising to protect and get a cheap showdown) and overcards (semi-bluffing).

So we have about 25% equity vs his range.

We can easily rep QQ+ when we shove, and villain isn't calling it off with pocket tens.

FWIW, I'd rather call here than fold. We have pot odds, based on a realistic hand range.

Most people are

I’m not saying this is a standard line versus MOST players. I’m saying it’s standard vs. a patient, thinking player.

Its not the worst play ever. I just dont think all that many people are folding TT for another $210 after raising to $75. And most people arent raising to $75 with TT there either.

Smaller pairs, sure.

Did this happen yesterday? if so, I may have been at the table lol I was wearing my pink hat and sunglasses

literally is the board that happened at my table

not yesterday, I meant last weekend. I wasn't at Borgata yesterday