Villain (EP): mid 20s white man; seems like the TAG grinder type ($300)
Hero (MP): mid 20s asian man; TAG ($450)

Villain opens $10 in EP. Hero flats in MP with AK and everyone else folds.

Flop: T53 ($23)

Villain bets $15. Hero calls.

Turn: 4 ($48)

Villain checks. Hero bets $30. Villain calls. Since I floated and he doesn't seem to like that turn very much a bet seems mandatory especially since I have a few outs.

River: 6 ($108)

Villain checks. Unless he's slowplaying a flush which he realistically has 4 combos of: AK AQ AJ and KQ he has to hate this river. I think a lot of TAGs (assuming he's a TAG) open a very face up and exploitable range in EP like 99+ AQ+ AJs KQs. So he can't have a straight and has very few flush combos in his range. If I bet more than 2/3 pot I'm sure he would fold AA and maybe even TT. Bombs away?

I don't mind the flat pre, but I'm done with the hand on the flop. I see no reason to float and try to outplay a "tag grinder". Can't really give you advice on the river as I don't find myself in spots like these in 1/2.

It depends on how good V is and how V views hero. I think you've accurately assessed his range. What if he does the same with yours?

What hands are you trying to represent? Pocket 2s are extremely unlikely. Pocket 7s are possible, but again unlikely. Your flush combos are probably the same as his. I would even eliminate AK from your range because I would assume that you would 3-bet pre-flop. So, your value hands are basically AQh, AJh, and sets.

If he's a mubsy V who's scared of his own shadow, then definitely bet. If he's a thinking V, I think it's tough to represent a hand strong enough that he won't call a modest sized bet. You really think he's laying down AA to an $80 bet?

If you are going to flat pre you should be fine folding to his cbet when you flop complete air there.

Preflop aside, playing 1/2 why are you floating that flop against a player you described as a "TAG grinder" to double barrel the turn and river? This is bad in so many ways.

Next time target one of the many weaker players at the table and stop trying to outplay the good ones.

I have more flush combos than him cause for 150bb eff stacks I can flat hands like 98 vs a range that is very face up and easy to play against. Although if I had a blocker like A or K this would be a much better play, I do think a 3/4 pot river bet will make him fold AA. His hand looks exactly like a scared OP (I'd imagine TT would bet/evaluate the turn).

Cause I'm assuming his range in EP is very face up and doesn't hit low boards. So when there are scary flush/straight cards that fall I think I can bluff him off his OPs, which many TAGs think is correct to fold when too many draws get there on the river.

Also I feel like I have enough equity vs his cbetting range on the flop to see a turn in position.

These types of hands (IP bluffs) require some history IMO. What types of hands have you been showing down? I see V c/c quite a few Rivers with JJ+ with showdown value. Do you ever have a 7 or 2 here? (Ah2x)

I think if you are going to have a go here then bet fairly big. My regs will either fold for $10 or call down any bet based on their Turn thinking. Betting fairly big with discourage the call from other AK as well in some cases. Betting fairly big may discourage some calls from 1-pr hands that do beat you, like JT/99/88.

The key to these spots .. duh, of course ... is to get 40% of V range or more that beats you to fold out. I think there is more value there than trying to pick the 'right' bet to get hands you actually do beat to call.

If your V has a big enough range here or has a history of shutting down on Turns or scary boards, then this is a good spot to double barrel IP. It could set you up for some marginal calls later in the session from other V as well regardless of a win/lose/draw here in this hand. GL

hand is played fine
just bomb the river for close to pot. i would expect a fold a very high %

I'm fine with the way you played the hand thus far, albeit a little unorthodox. As crucified as unorthodox lines can get on 2p2 (as I did in your other thread, lol), I think it's fine.

I also agree with your river plan, I do think a river bomb could work here a lot. I agree with your ranging of your opponent, although I'd eliminate AK Bet at least $90. If you get hero called by some weirdly scared overpair, oh well. Still a good play regardless.

I think his range here after calling the turn is TT+ and the four flush combos (which is a total of 28 combos). I don't have too much history with villain but I'm assuming he's gonna fold everything but the four flush combos (which have to be discounted since he double barrels them some % of the time) and AA/KK with the A or K so yeah that's way more than 40%.

lol is that the thread where I tripled the 9 high board? And also why are we eliminating AK from his range?

Grunch.

Why no 3bet pre? If it's because his range is strong... why are you calling the flop with an air ball? If you are certain that he will fold AA and TT OTR then you should bluff. I'm just not convinced that he will fold those hands. Hand is played pretty meh IMO.

If it's a fish I definitely 3 bet but a TAG who opens EP has a strong range which I don't want to make stronger. But as explained in a previous post it's that same reason which made me float the flop (as well as having equity still cause he could be cbetting AK/AQ/AJs/KQs). His strong range contains few flush combos and zero combos that connect with a low board while my flatting range is much less face up and can contain both with a hand like 98 or 87. It's almost like how OMC are so easy to read/play against when they raise in any position.

Yeah... I'm not sure this is a good strategy. You didn't 3bet pre with what is a "premium" hand because your opponents range is strong and you don't want to isolate yourself against the top of that range. I understand this. But now you are facing a bet OTF from the same range right? You completely wifed the flop... Why are you continuing here? What happens if a "scare card" for his range doesn't show up OTT? I mean... you basically got one of the best runout's to bluff him and your questioning whether or not you should go with it. See what I'm getting at? I just think that you probably didn't have much of a plan here, or rather, your plan was wishful thinking at best.

Either 3bet pre, or fold flop IMO.