Easy Fold.

After hitting a luckbox FH playing 53 (unless you were in the BB and didn't call a raise) I'd say your image is anything but good and you look as much like an ATC donk as it gets.

Your late position raise isn't getting much respect, and therefore your pot-sized c-bet isn't repping an overpair. The best you could be repping is a pair of jacks or a draw.

When the T hits the turn, you are in the perfect RIO situation.

After your c-bet got called on J high board, Villain's river bet is going to be a J (or maybe two pair) more often than is profitable to 'bluff-catch' in this situation.

You say this table is super loose, but in that situation, you'd be better off being the one betting TP on the river and getting called with 2nd pair. Much more profitable to value bet than to bluff catch at 1/2 imo.

The Vegas games are crazy aggressive lately. It must be the WSOP or something. Yesterday, I got 4 bet pre-flop by tens and 3 bet twice by a hand worse than AJ in a $1/2 game. I played with a guy who tours the country playing $1/2 and $2/5. He said Vegas has "by far" the worst action in the country.

As far as the hand goes, I fold. I don't make bluffs unless I have a very good read on a player and I don't call bluffs without a good read. If he's shoving this river with a missed draw, he'll do it again.

In the 5-3 hand I limped OTB. There was no raise so I'm not sure where people get that from.

As far as "luckboxing a FH" don't we want to see cheap flops in position and flop a monster? You make it sound like I raised UTG and called a 3-bet with it.

I don't dispute that I got lucky with that hand. But putting ourselves in a favorable position when we do get lucky is what the game is all about. If you never hit flops you never make money in this game.

And IMO people who say "easy fold" are going to get run over by tougher, more aggressive villains, many of which I played with this weekend. I saw several busted draws bet the river. I bet several busted draws myself and I know for an absolute fact that I'm not the only one around with the heart to stick in a raise or a bet on the river with air.

I also note that not a single posted ITT who advocates a river fold is able to talk about villain's range. I think people look at the size of the bet and decide whether a player is bluffing or not based solely on that. I don't think people have thought through ranges and the action in the hand well enough to decide if villain is bluffing or not.

His line made no sense to me. I couldn't put him on a hand so I called. I happened to be wrong this time but I snapped off 3-4 bluffs this weekend because villain lines made no sense. I was curious if his line made sense to anyone else either, but people are hung on pre- and flop and only 2 people have really addressed what the thread was about - does villain's line make sense for value?

Most of the time we're *NOT* dealing with tougher, more aggressive opponents. Your OP has absolutely ZERO reads on Villain other than that he just sat down with $200 and is Asian. That sounds an awful lot like an unknown to me, and assuming that an unknown is going to be a tough aggressive opponent is idiotic. Most randoms are loose and passive, or tight and passive, or crazy spewy bluffy. TAG is a small subset of players. Until we know more I'm not going to assume that he's tough/good.

If your game conditions were different you should have included it.


I advocated a fold, and his range is weighted heavily towards J's, KJ and AJ are easily in there, as are some other J's like J9s (especially with a FD). Most PP should be in his preflop calling range, and the whole line is common enough with 77, 33, TT, hell maybe even JJ if he's one to flat preflop (which we have no clue about yet). I basically don't think there are many/any draws calling you on the flop.

Does his line make sense? Depends on what he has. For a PP that flopped a set it's fine. The pot is $160 on the flop and he has $145 in front of him. He has little reason to bet the turn if he thinks there's a chance you can be again OTR and he can put the money in there. (Makes perfect sense with AJhh.)

53 limp on the button vs 2 limpers is probably -EV even though you got lucky. That was luck, and it appears you didn't manage to hold on to your win there.

After calling $15 pre flop and then calling a pot sized bet on J high two flush flop, range is mostly top pair and flush draws.

AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9s, J8s (54 combos)
Flush draws (45 combos if he plays suited junk ~25 more realistic)
Possibly sets with 77,33

After turn is check check, sets are out

When you check the river, he can value bet almost any legit hand.

The only hands you beat besides bluffs are something like T9s (even KT beats you).

If he bluffs routinely with missed flush draws or something weak like 87s that missed but made a small pair, then you could argue for a call I the odds look good. Against a rando at a 1/2 table though, I'm almost never calling here.

You say there's nothing in his range that makes sense... This would be a great way to play AJ or KJ for value (id bet JT on the turn and prob check back QJ or worse on the river). After the flop call, there are a ton of jacks in his range.

Easy fold.

I disagree that his range is weighted toward a naked jack because his river shove doesn't make much sense. 90% of 1-2 players are going to check back one pair on the river, even in position. A few are going to make a small value bet. Very rarely is a player going to shove A-J on a J-high board on the river for a PSB.

I don't know about it being -EV... I made $300 in the hand. I can call an awful lot of buttons with small suited connectors with that $300 and turn a profit a profit on some of them.

No I wasn't able to "hold on to my winnings" (was that a dig on me?). One of the villains in this hand - the one who will call a raise with ATC - managed to crack my set of aces with 2-6 offsuit. Called the flop with bottom pair, caught a gutshot on the turn, and got there on the river.

A lot of times when I see a line that makes no sense, it's from a clueless player that was playing garbage and just hit a big hand unexpectedly (like hitting 2 pair when the 4 hits on the turn after they decided 84o was good enough to call a PF raise with). Or they slowplayed a big hand.

And big bets are very meaningful because when a passive player makes them, it's almost certainly a big hand, and most players at the lower stakes are passive. They aren't going to have many bluffs in their range.

Results?

Villian shows AA, right?

#notproof. If it is -ev it isn't huge nor would limping atc be hugely +ev.

A lot of what you are saying in the thread seems ad hoc. Lots of 1-2 play didn't make a ton of sense, it doesn't mean stick your stack with 2nd pair without a solid read on V. I agree V river bet was odd but not sure more than 33% of the time it was a bluff (or whatever the proper % is).

Nutted hands like sets and straights make sense in theory because missed AK, AQ, AT, KQ, ect. make up the bulk of your range when you check OOP and you're c/folding so often that letting you catch up to a top pair hand with < 1 PSB on the river OOP or checking back and giving you a chance to hero with Tx/99/88 is probably optimal. Really doubt that this player is thinking on that level though so he probably just made the best play by accident.

Villain showed J-4 for a rivered two pair.

His shove really only makes sense if he has two pair. But two pair is awful hard to have on that board because what kind of moron calls a $15 raise with a hand other than J-10 that makes two pair?

His line didn't make sense to me because his hand didn't make sense to me. Most villains won't play J-4 with a $200 stack. I know there are some that will but I think most 1-2 players know to fold that hand.

That's funny cause there is a guy at my casino who LOVES J4 and will play it for any amount, it was probably him lol

The kind of moron that is often found in LLSNL. That's why you don't play a big pot without a good read. There's no sense in trying to ascribe a complex thinking line to a guy who calls a $15 raise with J4. Play a few more orbits with him and you would probably have observed him doing something similar in a hand that you weren't in.

I see people turn over terrible hands all the time after calling PF raises. I'm not surprised at all. The typical 1-2 NL player at Planet Hollywood is not going to play well PF. If you think that your opponents will think similarly to the way you think, that's a leak.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people saw Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu win with hands like 74o on tv and as a result, they think it's okay to play those hands. Maybe he wants to be like those players and his ego convinces him that his skill gives him an edge with J4o. Maybe he saw you win with 53o and thinks he can win your stack if he catches something because he thinks you play badly. A lot of players greatly overestimate their implied odds, and he may think $15 is a small price to pay for a chance to stack you.

A lot of players are also just playing for fun, and to them playing poker is like playing roulette or slot machines. They don't want to play serious poker and play tight before the flop. They want to see flops, and calling PF raises increases the number of flops they see. That's not being a moron. That's just the cost of paying for entertainment, and hey, maybe they will hit 2 pair with J4 and get lucky and win.

Some people also cringe when they fold a hand that would have hit the flop, even if it's J4o. People also are encouraged to play garbage because they've gotten lucky with it before. Finally, people go on tilt and play stuff like that, or they go card dead and become impatient.

Yeah I don't understand why the OP is so surprised. Why is the OP assuming that villain will play in a way that makes sense when his only read on villain is an Asian male who plays 1-2 NL?

I totally get that one of my leaks is that I think people play like I do.

Grunch. Pre flop is fine at tighter tables. The fact that you got three callers and stacks are so deep (inviting lots of calls) makes me think this is not the table to iso with QTs even in late position.
I would not cbet this flop against three people.

You're going to have to work on your hand reading skills. Get used to $1/2 and the terrible calls. I don't blame you for calling as villain is repping a super strong range or has a busted draw. I would heavily discount two pairs+ on this board since even fish get scared of draws and bet big on turn. So what hands beat you? 89dd, 56dd, heck even 74s if villain is that loose. so your call makes sense since he reps so little. on the other hand some people just dont have the guts to bluff big so sometimes it doesnt matter what the pot odds are

Also so villains slowplay sets on drawy boards. not often but some do

Also which card on flop was not a diamond? depending on the card, he could have JTdd, J4dd, 74dd, 43dd as well