1/2 NL - Crazy river bluff - Was this correct or a spew?

H had history with V in this hand, but have not played together in years. V 60 is white guy, and is mostly TAG, but is notorious for stacking off with overpairs, sometimes TPTK, and chasing draws incorrectly. However, he is not a total donk compared to most 1/2 players. He also lies about his hands and likes to show cards, and is mostly there is have fun and lie about about much money he makes playing poker, girls he is dating, etc. H has about 700 in this hand and V covers.

V opens from MP to 17
H calls on BTN w AhJh
BB also calls

Flop 8d10s9d
V bets 45
H calls
BB folds

Turn 3c
V checks
H bets 100

V says "I thought you might do that." Thinks for a while, plays with his chips, and finally calls.

River 6s
v checks
H shoves for 400

I didn't put V on a specific hand, all I knew was he almost wanted to fold the turn and he was giving off lots of weak tells.

Guy has a habit of being stationary..... and you bluff.

[/scratching head]

This

Player reads are the most important thing you have in poker. If you want to run a Bluff like this, don't do it against a guy who is known for calling it off with tptk

It's a hard game.

Definitely spew - wrong player to try this against who will look you up light (if your read is solid).

Another issue is your sizing, you've overbet jammed the river, I think $225 would have the same effect no?

Not sure what you're trying to rep either, straights and sets (and even like top two) raise this flop the vast majority of the time. I guess 77 or 10 7s might play it this way?

Take the free equity ott. Ck back riv and win about 25% of the time.

How does V think of you? if he thinks that your a nit and you have been playing snug then this bluff has a way better chance than if he thinks your a tricky player.

Your line wont make sense to a lot of villains. You bet 100 on the turn, and then a card that completes a draw gets there and you overbet for 400. If you are tight then he wont think you have a 7, so he has to put you squarely on QJ. If you had a set would you bomb this board? Maybe. But he might think you wouldn't play a set this way. Calling stations like to talk themselves into calling.......

This

and this.

No idea why you want to shovel 350bb into a guy who can't fold one pair hands. I mean I know it's boring to set mine, call flop, raise turn when you hit but that's my plan to take his stack.

Very nice hand.

This villain can have and fold hands on the river like QT, Q9, Q8, JT, J9, J8, T7, 97, 87, T6, 96, 86, 77, 66, 6dxd, 3dxd, Txdd, AdQd, AdKd. You can also get AJ off a chop, which is just fine. V has a wide and weak range including lots of draws, including plenty of very weak pair + draws that beat you and unimproved will call two streets and then fold rivers. Fine spot for a semi-bluff / bluff triple barrel imo.

Well played.

This deep with this hand if committed to bluffing this guy id prob raise flop and tripple barrel. It's going to be hard to get paid on a board with one liner to a J and given read v is folding to max pressure only.

And against this guy you risk 400 OTR to win less than 200 when your line doesn't make too much sense? Looks pretty horrible to be honest. Wrong player, bad board to double barrel, massively -EV play. Don't mind the turn but as soon as called you should just give up unimproved here. Small chance you might be good too.

Any reads on words 8.5x means from villain? Preflop might not even be profitable. Might be a good spot to CiB/f to manipulate the KK+ out of his range.

Flatting his 4/3p bet on the flop is questionable as well. He seems to be promising to pile chips in on the turn, and it's gonna be really hard to get paid when we hit our obvious straight, so immediate odds are pretty important. A small raise might buy you another card for cheaper and can give you the initiative for a more believable bluff if bad cards hit.

I'd probably take the free card on the turn. I don't expect better hands to fold all that often, this card doesn't set up a lot of good, and a raise is disaster.

The river 4-straight is worth a stab, but I don't think an overbet is necessary. We have the range advantage to justify it in theory, but in practice, no one expects a hand that wants a call to bet this size on this board, and you run the risk that he puts you on whiffed diamonds.

I typed the above between plays during the Super Bowl. Probably best to just repost the whole thing with corrected grammar:

"Any reads on what a 8.5bb raise means from villain? Preflop might not even be profitable. Might be a good spot to CiB/f to manipulate the KK+ out of his range.

Flatting his 4/3p bet on the flop is questionable as well. He seems to be promising to pile chips in on the turn, and it's gonna be really hard to get paid when we hit our obvious straight, so immediate odds are pretty important. A small raise might buy you another card for cheaper and can give you the initiative for a more believable bluff if scare cards hit.

OTT: I'd probably take the free card. I don't expect better hands to fold all that often, this card doesn't set up a lot of good river bluffs, and a x/r from villain is a equity disaster.

The river 4-straight is worth a stab, but I don't think an overbet is necessary. We have the range advantage to justify it in theory, but in practice, no one expects a hand that wants a call to bet this size on this board, and you run the risk that he puts you on whiffed diamonds."

If you're going to bluff, I think the right spot to do it is on the flop, followed by a large turn and river bet.