hero: $1150 early 20s crushing the table, image is thinking lag

villain: $320 late 20s-early 30s thinking tag slightly loose


utg1, utg2, mp limp, v opens 16 in co. folds to hero in sb with j j . hero 3b to 45. folds to v who flatcalls


flop (98) t 9 9


hero cbet 45, v raise to 100, 180 back.

wwyd here? my first thought is im not loving it, i dont give him a 9 at all but also not a ten unless its like ace ten suited or jack ten suited which we block. i definitely give him qko here and our lag image may lead him to make a play, but notably we dont 3b alot at all, usually we just open and get a bunch of calls. perhaps he thinks i'm strong here? i definitely still give him qq kk aa.

I dont love it either but barring a stronger read I dont think you can fold this. You can fold your AK/AQs type hands here, and call all overpairs. But for 55 into about 250, you really shouldnt be folding any pairs here. Call and check the turn.

Fold.

What range does V raise/call flop, min raise turn? 99+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, and MAYBE 87s. Even with 4 combos of unlikely 87s, you only have 25% equity.

I view the min-raise by Villain as an essential all in. So, you need to shove $235 more to wins $660 ($100 rounded+$45+$280+$235=$660), which means you need to win 35% of the time ($235/$660=35%). You only have 25% best case.

Fold.

I also feel the min-raise is VERY STRONG in most cases.

In this case I don't think it is very strong. Kind of looks like an 'info' raise. If hero has a loose aggressive image, why would he raise a the flop with a 9 and get rid of hero's bluffs. I'm calling, or potentially going ALLIN expecting him to call it off sometimes with a T, sometimes folding, and sometimes running into a slowplayed QQ.

Correction it's for $55 into about $200.

What turns are we c/f on? vs. continuing to the river? Villian is left with a perfect 60% PSB left (which could have also been part of his rationale for raising us so small).

Q or J hits OTR we obviously are not folding. But what happens if a T or 9 hits? What are we doing when a 2 hits?

I think we are only behind an over pair, and that seems likely. he raised on the larger side PF after a couple limpers, then called your 3bet in position.

Fold OTF.

Why would he not 4-bet AA or KK pre flop? you think he is always flatting those? I think his range could be 78s,J10s, A10s , K10s, QQ, maybe 88 or 77 and a few 9X combo's; He could be looking to put out a feeler raise on this paired board to deny equity to over cards; If you could discount AA and KK pre then this looks like a call or a jam depending on how you want to play it

It may look strong, but folding this flop to a decent player when we have an overpair means Villain can min-raise with any two cards and be printing money against us.

I think that Hero has to call this min-raise, even if many turn cards and a strong turn bet makes us fold the next street.

If it's guaranteed to be HU and I have position, I'll flat a 3bet with AA and KK quite often.

I'm not unique in this regard, it's a fairly common line.

I think that because there's no FD, and there's just so much unknown OTT, we're in a very tough spot and not guaranteed to be way ahead. I prefer easier decisions and will fold here and wait for one.

Is calling the min-raise and praying Villain checks back the turn the best strategy?

I wouldn't disagree that people will flat with AA or KK here sometimes but I would think they would look to 4B! here a good amount of the time depending on player type but just in general getting 3! by the SB means they probably have a good holding they will want to continue with or have a real tough time letting go pre; by 4!'ing you could create a low spr situation post flop and get the money in pretty easy by pricing your opponent in ; I know being in position gives you more incentive to flat sometimes but I think 4!'ing is standard here based on SB's range in general

I agree if "thinking" player is in description and if our image is "lag" dont think we can fold JJ here aside from a super strong live read.

i usually have a policy of not folding to bets which havent been made yet, but against this aggro player i was pretty sure that after he sticks in 100 with 180 back he's not giving up on the turn and im just still gonna be oop and not gonna be loving it on almost any card. i really dont see him raising a ten here and he's the type to fold qt and kt suited pre here.

in-game i didnt even consider flatting here, im either folding or jamming to shut out his equity with qk / other bluffs or perhaps an ak-aq type spaz out because those hands still have ok equity on us. also a slim chance he has qq and puts us on kk or aa if we ship, but not rly expecting that due to my image.

i went for the ship and he tanked about a minute before calling off with qq and holding. just feels too weak to fold jj here with my image but what are we supposed to do, flat and fold to the turn jam when an offsuit deuce rolls?

also, idk if he 4b with kk or aa which is important here. if he does 4b those i like my play, but if he doesnt then i dislike it. would have been much more discouraged to run into kk here than qq

Sorry man.

I'm seeing people flat a 3bet more and more with KK and QQ pf these days because they want to make sure an Ace doesn't hit the flop first.

For the hand, Fold>Reraise AI>>>>>Call

Hope you fought off tilt and played ok the rest of the way.

Yeah I feel like it is more of low stakes thing just being more passive pre-flop. don't really see many 4 bets at 1/2

oh yeah no tilt at all dw bout that, i think i had like 820 after dusting that off and i still cashed out at 920. just a black spot on an otherwise good session

OK, but if you're not going to continue here with less than a set against a LAG then I don't understand why you are 3-betting JJ from the blinds and setting yourself up for a stack-off or fold decision on this flop with an SPR of 3.

hes not the lag im the lag lol, hes a tag which is why i gave his raise some credibility

I got it...although it really doesn't change my advice that if you are going to fold JJ here for a min-raise when no overcards have fallen then you shouldn't be 3-betting JJ from the blinds.

yeah i agree in the end its just too weak vs anyone besides omc which is why i went for it. just a bad spot