Quote:
Originally Posted by akjohn1
Relatively weak tight 1/2 table at Maryland live casino. Very few pots see even a turn bet. Villain in this hand is weak tight, and have not seen him bet a pot without showing up with a quality hand.
Raise to 10 in EP with AT. Villain calls in hijack, BB calls. Three to the flop
KT2
BB checks, I bet 20, V calls, BB folds.
My read on villain at this point in the hand is weak K, pocket deuces, QJ, possibly some T's (AT-JT).
Turn A
I check, villain immediately looks down at chips when turn hits, then bets 50.
I call after thinking for ~15 seconds.
River 6.
I check, counts down his stack and goes all-in for 125. I fold.
My PF and Flop play here is pretty standard (from my perspective), but will gladly take advise on those streets if people think there are better lines. Mostly I'm concerned with how I may have played the hand differently on turn and river.
Thanks,
Grunch
Using this as a chance to think about possible combinations and how that affects his range.
So to fold here you must be putting villain on AA (only one possible combo), KK (3 combos), AK (9 combos), TT (one combo), 22 (3 combos), QJ (16 combos) or 66 (3 combos). I think those are the only hands that beat you. Of those, I severely discount 66 since he was aggressive before the river, and 22, TT, KK since you suggest from his "looks at his chips" on the A
that it's the Ace that he likes. (NOTE: maybe he likes it because he thinks you liked it and now he can stack your TP hand with one of the hands I listed but I'm going to proceed anyway. That leaves the QJ, AA, AK (26 combos).
What could he be betting that you beat? AQ(8 combos), AJ(8 combos), A2s (2 combos since 2
and A
) are on board. Anything else? If he's as weak tight as you suggest I think not. So that's 26 hands that beat you vs. 18 that don't. And that's with 22, TT, KK, 66 out of his range.
Running your combos against that board I get you as 42% dog. But you are getting 420:125 on your call so you only need 30%. If that's the range.
Now if think that glance at his chips was "now I can reel him in" and we had KK and 22 back to his range it's 63/37. Still a call. Even with 66 in his range it's 65/35.
So do you think AQ, AJ, and A2s are valid parts of his range? Because if you start taking those away, things get interesting. Take away A2s and AJ and it's 80/20 and you can't call.
But really the thing here is that you wound up in this river spot where you have to call because his final bet is small enough. When you're calling that $50 bet on the river you have to recognize you are going to be committing your chips. If the river is a bad card (a
or Q or J?) maybe you can get reassess but when it's a blank, aren't you committed?
I welcome comments on my thought process. I am basing a lot on your weak tight read and narrow range (did you add any hands back to his range on the turn? I assumed you did.)