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<img /2 AQo with a big preflop decision <img /2 AQo with a big preflop decision

03-13-2015 , 08:33 AM
Typical loose/passive table. It presented me with an interesting spot towards the end of my session. Really not sure what my action should be because it's a spot that I'm rarely in.

Button Straddle (Seat 5)

Seat 5 BTN - $80 - Young Latin Male, loose passive, has started drinking. Hasn't shown down a hand, hasn't gotten out of line.
Seat 6 SB - $60 stack, irrelevant to the hand, OMC, very limpy pre.
Seat 7 BB - $80 stack, OMC, super-nitty raising range, but will limp very wide.
Seat 1 MP - HERO $400, TAG, winning image, has not had many chances to open up due to short stacks.
Seat 2 MP - $150 stack super loose MAWG, gets aggressive in ridiculous spots, has little concept of hand strength (absolute and relative), saw him CRAI with 33 on an A55 board in a protected pot earlier.
Seat 4 - CO - $150 stack bad loose, relatively aggressive young black female. Super gambly, no concept of SPR, very level 0. GII OTF earlier versus a tight older gentleman with a naked 9-high flush draw versus an obvious set/two-pair hand and got there.

BTN straddles $4, SB & BB limp.
Hero raises to $20 with AQo for value
Seat 2 calls
Seat 4 calls
Seat 5....JAMS for $77 more. I have not seen this player raise, much less 3-bet.

Obviously, we're smoked versus the button's range. However, something interesting is going on behind the scenes. I look to my left as I'm figuring out my action. BOTH players are cutting out calls. I'm pretty sure their intent is to call rather than discourage a shove from me. Both villains are nowhere near sophisticated enough to throw off reverse tells. I'm comfortable in the fact that I'm either way ahead of their ranges or not far behind (in other words, they'd 3-bet/shove pre with QQ+ so at worst I'm racing with both of them).

Back to hero. Do we call, raise, or fold?
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03-13-2015 , 09:02 AM
I let it go. The hand doesn't play too well in a big milti way pot. Plus buttons range is ahead anyway. The callers are probably pocket pairs or AK.
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03-13-2015 , 09:19 AM
My first reaction was to 4-bet shove to isolate the button. Then I read both remaining players plan to call. I think I'd fold. AQo just isn't strong enough against 3 villains willing to get it in. Even dumb villains aren't going crazy preflop with complete garbage. It's far too likely you're dominated.

Let's say the button crushes you with QQ+/AK but you're dominating or flipping against the other two villains. To make the math easier, let's assign KK to seat 5, 99 to seat 2, and AJ to seat 4. Your EV is -$23 in the main pot and +$20 in the side pot. You don't lose many outs in this scenario and it's still -EV. You fair much worse if the button has QQ, AA, or AK. Obviously you're in better shape if the button has JJ or worse.

It's hard to find a plausible situation where shoving is plus EV. Unless you're sure seats 2 and 4 would get it in with complete crap like KJ or JT, I'd fold.
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03-13-2015 , 09:40 AM
How many hands do you have on seat 5? Also, does he have $80 to start the hand or $100?
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03-13-2015 , 10:07 AM
Just fold. Honestly don't think it is close.
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03-13-2015 , 10:23 AM
I don't see any real merit to shoving. We probably need to hit to win against the button, and anything the other two are folding to a shove is way behind us if we hit.

If you can really put button on QQ+/AK, then you can probably just fold. If his range is JJ+/AQ+, then you are getting odds to call. Obviously never fold post if both villains come along.
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03-13-2015 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
How many hands do you have on seat 5? Also, does he have $80 to start the hand or $100?
$80 to start.
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03-13-2015 , 10:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
How many hands do you have on seat 5? Also, does he have $80 to start the hand or $100?
About 20. Has been there less than an hour.
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03-13-2015 , 10:30 AM
I think it's a call if it's only $57 to us.
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03-13-2015 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
I think it's a call if it's only $57 to us.
How does the other two villains' pre-loading affect our action?
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03-13-2015 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
How does the other two villains' pre-loading affect our action?
I think it slightly favors calling. Their ranges do not have a lot of equity when we are ahead of the button, so that favors calling. The only concern is how to play postflop, but if they're both calling, we will got to the flop with $350 in the pot and $70 left to bet, so it shouldn't be too complicated.
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03-13-2015 , 10:48 AM
Eh just fold. At best you're flipping. Most likely dominated.
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03-13-2015 , 10:54 AM
tbh the other players calling is less favorable to us. If we were suited then we would want them in but AQo we would generally want to be heads up, not 5 ways. Also the players to our left are kind of short stacked so the rest can easily go in on the flop light they have less than a psb left

.

Last edited by Playbig2000; 03-13-2015 at 11:00 AM.
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03-13-2015 , 11:01 AM
If the BTN has 80 and we call and we're crushed by his range, we're really only looking to get value from the 2 other Vs, so we have to pay 60 more just to get into a pot with them.

They only have 150 each but in reality it's actually 70 each because 80 is in the main pot, which we have little chance to win.

So pay 60 to play 2 villains in a dry side-pot with 35bb each

I don't see how this is ever a call...
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03-13-2015 , 01:48 PM
Interesting question.

Okay, so seat passive straightforward S5 shoves and we have AQ. His range is pretty much AA/KK/some AK here, so we may as well kiss that $77 goodbye when we call. Or maybe we can kiss about $60 goodbye, but you get the idea.

So is it worth it to spend $60 to see a flop in hopes that we make it back with AQo? I don't know how we would math this out, but common sense says no. If we flop a pair, we will be betting big to protect/value it. But since the pot is so bloated, and we are betting so big, it will be hard for them to call us with crap like the would if it were just a single raised pot on the flop. So I think, pretty often, when we call, these bad outcomes happen:

1) we bet into the dry side pot, everyone folds, and we lose the main pot to the 3-bettor.

2) we end up building a huge pot against a better hand.

3) we flop nothing, check it down or check/fold and lose.

This will happen more often than:

4) we flop an ace or queen and get more than $60 of value from the callers.

Again, I don't know how to delve into the math here so if someone does know -- an can either back up what people are saying or disprove it -- that would be great. But overall, I think this is a pretty clear fold.
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03-13-2015 , 02:20 PM
I was trying to do the math at the table to figure out the optimal line. However, with multiple weird stack sizes and equities to figure out, I nearly had a melt down.

So it would have been $57 to call. Assuming S2 and S4 call behind, the pot will be $308. I'm comfortable I've got good equity against the two players still in the hand, but I didn't know what I should do if the flop comes raggedy. Shove? x/fold?

I'm not strong on the math side so anybody who could offer some insight would be appreciated.
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03-13-2015 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
I'm not strong on the math side so anybody who could offer some insight would be appreciated.
what do you range V5 at? the one who shoved. it all hinges on him
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03-13-2015 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
what do you range V5 at? the one who shoved. it all hinges on him
JJ+ and AK, and we are a 2-1 dog against that range. Just stoved it, and had it been heads up, it would have been a close call. With the overlay in the pot, it's an easy call.

My concern was the pre-loading players behind me. If we shove, I thought there was a good chance at least one of them are calling. Possibly both.
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03-13-2015 , 02:53 PM
I think this is a pretty easy shove pre. Isolating vs seat 5 and picking up the dead money is best
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03-13-2015 , 02:54 PM
Only hand I'm worried about either Vs behind having is AK really. Hard to have QQ+ when they flat
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03-13-2015 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
I was trying to do the math at the table to figure out the optimal line. However, with multiple weird stack sizes and equities to figure out, I nearly had a melt down.

So it would have been $57 to call. Assuming S2 and S4 call behind, the pot will be $308. I'm comfortable I've got good equity against the two players still in the hand, but I didn't know what I should do if the flop comes raggedy. Shove? x/fold?

I'm not strong on the math side so anybody who could offer some insight would be appreciated.
I've been thinking about postflop, and it's really hard. If you just call and get two overcalls, the pot will be $310 and you'll have $70 behind. Folding a ragged flop getting better than 5:1 is gross. You could shove and maybe get some folds, but it's a dry side pot, so that doesn't necessarily accomplish much. You could check-call, but again, it's a dry side-pot, so villains are unlikely to be bluffing, and $70 isn't nothing.

I think I'm checking all the way in a friendly, "hey let's check this down" kind of way (unless we make a pair) and muttering to myself and calling if someone bets.
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03-13-2015 , 03:11 PM
in general whatever random ranges i put in for V2 and V4 while holding V5 at {JJ+, AK} and us at AQo i'm getting our equity at roughly 17%

that really makes this a close call pre

i calc'ed the pot would be ~316 if both overcall
we would need to call $57

(.17)($316)=$53.72
(.83)(-$57)=-47.31

sure, it's technically +EV, but honestly, this is a spot i could pass on and be happy about it. it's pretty marginal at 1/2; Vs arent good enough to be looking for spots this thin
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03-13-2015 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot
in general whatever random ranges i put in for V2 and V4 while holding V5 at {JJ+, AK} and us at AQo i'm getting our equity at roughly 17%

that really makes this a close call pre

i calc'ed the pot would be ~316 if both overcall
we would need to call $57

(.17)($316)=$53.72
(.83)(-$57)=-47.31

sure, it's technically +EV, but honestly, this is a spot i could pass on and be happy about it. it's pretty marginal at 1/2; Vs arent good enough to be looking for spots this thin
Thanks for that, J.

How should we account for the $ behind in our calculations? Should we even consider the money that's left to bet?
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03-13-2015 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
Thanks for that, J.

How should we account for the $ behind in our calculations? Should we even consider the money that's left to bet?
honestly, idk.

i just tried to simplify it as much as possible to think about preflop. so i took the assumption that with a dry sidepot, there is a legit chance you or one (or both) of them wiff and then it stays dry or you fold.

it's really V dependent i think. i've seen Vs fold with huge pots and little behind when they miss and i've seen Vs realize they're committed and call it off with a PP that is like 4th pair. but it's kinda the situation we create by just calling to get their money in. we have no clue where we are, even if we hit an A or Q. even if the flop could come Q72r - the driest of dry flops - we could get called by one/both with nothing, one/both fold, or just be completely dominated by one of them.
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03-13-2015 , 03:47 PM
The last time I was in a big multi-way pot this is the way the equities looked pre-flop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.310% 74.25% 00.06% 1227910560 949665.60 { KK }
Hand 1: 03.498% 03.22% 00.28% 53275752 4577481.60 { AKo }
Hand 2: 05.144% 04.87% 00.28% 80486280 4577481.60 { AQo }
Hand 3: 05.630% 05.35% 00.28% 88522560 4577481.60 { AJo }
Hand 4: 11.418% 11.14% 00.28% 184243848 4577481.60 { A9s }

Having a lot of people wanting to call makes me much less likely to want to get involved.
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