Hero - my image it appears is, I don't play unless I've got something worth a darn (from their point of view), nobody is trying to bluff me, etc.

Villain - She's in her late 40s, more or less typical fish, when she gets a MP or TP, no matter what the kicker is, she sticks to it.

Off the top, (I did stove this when I got home), I played this hand horribly and I believe I know what I did wrong but I'm very interested to see what you guys think and how you would have played this hand.

1/2
Effective stacks $100.00 - capped game

Hero - UTG +2 (AKc) - open with $10.00

Fold around to V in the SB, she calls.

Pot $22.00
Flop: AQJr

V: bets out $10.00
Hero: calls

Pot: $42.00

Turn: 5

V: bets out $10.00
Hero: calls

Pot: $62.00

River: J

V: immediately bets $40.00

Hero: ?

I don't think this hand was played all that badly.

That flop is not a great flop for your hand. V's like to call with broadways and even weaker aces all of which hit this board in a 2pair combo bonanza and the KT flopped straight.

Imo, river is a fold.

Either villain flopped two pair which crushes us, straight which crushes us, tripped on the river which crushes us, or hit a full house on river which crushes us.

There are only two hand combos in V's range that we beat and that is AT and QT and that assumes she is like Durr and Ivey and is just playing this hand at a super saiyan level...

The way this hand played out, V is either really good or really stupid or really lucky...

Regardless, this is a fold and I would be seriously analyzing all the hands she's involved in. Based on this one hand, she seems more competent than the typical 1/2nl rec-fish. Obviously, I could be wrong and I'm misreading/misinterpreting a fluke hand... Only more data/observation will confirm or refute my initial impression.

in any event, I'm fine with you calling down and letting V freeze you out.

As played, Fold river

Interesting,
as of this point, 55 people have looked at this thread and only Dgi commenting..so apparently an obvious hand?

But for me, what Dgi suggested is exactly what I did and for you fellow rookies out there; my gut/instincts were exactly what Dgi stated regarding the flop being dangerous and I only second guessed myself on the way home from the casino but the point is my fellow rookies, if you've been studying and working hard on your game, don't let your "after thoughts" screw with your head.

Apparently all my hard work is starting to sink in, somewhere in my brain cells!!

Everything I've been learning, I did accordingly and I'm glad I was right in the first place.

I think I raise turn for value, her hand looks really weak

I won't lie, during the hand, that thought crossed my mind.

It looks weak, but a common tactic at 1/2 tables is to bet extremely small like this with a crushing hand to get more money in the pot, knowing no one folds to a tiny bet. I've honestly folded to turn bets like this one (even though it feels ridiculous) and had the villain show me the nuts.

grunch: call

obviously villain must have shown you a better hand. if you were deeper this would probably be a fold but i'd stick with it especially given the villain's description. the board is super wet so a lot of monsters are possibly especially with the 2 J's. but i would call the 40.

i also "think" i would have raised the flop small to build the pot faster... but maybe i wouldn't have since the stacks are so small. i'd have to get a feel for the villain and the game. in a deeper game i think i'm raising flop.

i think you played it fine to river. river has to be a gut check.

About the only thing we beat on the river is AT-. I probably fold the river as played.

I pretty much hate a flop raise here without a read, it's overrepping our hand.

yeah, i think in retrospect we're not deep enough for a raise that has to be in part a "where do we stand" raise with such a wet board. calling is probably better. but i think we have to put lower pairs in the range as per villain's description.

wouldn't raise at any point in the hand unless i was turning your hand into a bluff, which obviously we are never gonna do with stack sizes and this opponent.

river is a fold, your rarely going to be good.

description says she stick too tp and mp hands, implying she's a station. doesn't say she leads out with weak hands trying to see where she is at

agreed. my grunch is losing money in the long run. disregard.

Close decision...

Against JJ,55,A9s+,KTs,QJs,A9o+,KTo,QJo

We win 29.63%, lose 59.26%, and tie 11.12%. This is a barely losing call against this range.

Note that this range includes zero bluffs, all the very strong hands (flopped sets and straights), and even pocket fives if she bluffed flop and turned a set. The only super strong hands I'm excluding are AA and QQ (since no 3-bet pre).

EVcall = .2963*$102 - .5926*$60 + .1112*$31 = -$1.8862

But I think this is too pessimistic. I like to do a super pessimistic analysis first and see if it comes out +EV, because if it does we can be certain that calling is correct. If we take out 55 from her range, discount some of the monsters slightly since she might slowplay them, and include some bluffs in her range, then we can call. If we include weaker aces than A9 (e.g. A8s or A7s), then it's a clear call.

Terrible analysis because that assumes she calls with all of those hands. Also how does JJ exist but not AA, KK, QQ? How are QJ, KJ, AJ, and JT magically not in range if QT is?

You can't start with the idea that she calls with her value betting range. She calls with a much tighter range.

Shoving the river would be absolutely horrible.

I messed up that analysis, see my corrected post. I meant to include K10, not Q10. I'm assuming zero bluffs in her range and zero hands worse than at least top pair.

Also, OP, it helps to know whether she's an overly aggro fish that will donk A6o here three streets in a row or a calling station fish. It also helps to know how loose or tight she is pre flop. Does she understand that your UTG raise is strong, or is she not positionally aware and will therefore call preflop with all suited aces and most ace rags.

Also note that if we do some level two thinking, IF we knew villain was a strong hand reader, then from villain's perspective we could easily have KK or KQ here....if villain has nothing and is a strong hand reader, he might put most of your range at these hands rather than sets or flopped two pair and either...

1. Bluff because she knows you'll give her credit for an ace and fold Kings

2. Value bet a weak ace because maybe you'll find a call with kings or KQ.

If we actually had KK this hand, we would certainly call the flop. Then we could call turn too since we usually have 6 outs and are a 6.8-1 underdog getting 5.2-1 pot odds, with some small chance we are actually ahead.

Folding the turn would be ridiculous in this particular spot (if thats what you're implying). We are getting 5:1 on a call and there is enough Ax in her range here to at least call.

Quite the spot. Hero doesnt explain how she plays above average holdings. All these polarizing bets drive us nuts. You could go both ways here, winning, losing and chopping. This looks like AJ all the way, but was afraid to bet out hard in fear of AQ or straight.

I probably fold against most opponents but there are quite a few who would do this with Ax and now are happy with the Q kicker. You will note Hero doesnt raise on Flop or Turn, thus shows a hint of weakness ... could have put Hero on KQ.

Still cant imagine fish leading out a shove without a very strong 4-card or 5-card hand.