11-24-2018
, 07:37 PM
11-25-2018
, 12:11 AM
11-25-2018
, 06:36 AM
Quote:
I prefer a cbet here to a check raise, and I say so because I believe, if your opponent is in fact a solid tight reg, than he will only continue a range of hands that have you beat equity wise, whereas if you were to simply c-bet, he would continue a much wider range, making your c-bet and subsequent barrels +EV. Lets start by identifying a flop bet range. When you check, your opponent has the ability to now bet 100% of his button cold call range, which I would think could look something like this {22-AA, A2s-AKs, all broadway suited and unsuited as you say, and 45s-910s, and suppose the occassional J9s-K9s}. Now, the majority of these will clearly be bluffs and equity denials, with value beggining with some middle pair hands (if he supposes you to check/call 10s, AK AQ gutters, and open-enders). Now the problem with a check raise here is your range is simply too strong. Even at your worst your drawing to the nut flush with A5s or the nut gutter with a potential two live overs, which is a decent amount of equity for villian to want to hero call race against at times. You would have to do some serious range balancing in this spot by working in some significant bluffs frequently, inclining villian to call much more liberally always. If you estimate his check range continuation range as {77, 89ss, 910ss, JJ-AA, Q10o-AQo, Q10s-AQs}, which is probably top weighted, as he may just be reluctant to call off the very likely turn all-in with his weaker top pairs, than your equity share is 49.573% while his is 50.427%. Now, lets look at equity shares at reasonable c-bet calls. supposing he calls that whole range minus KK,AA, sets and top two (because he will be inclined to raise those more often than not) plus {J10o, KJo, J10s, KJs, J9s, Q9s, K10o, K10s, AJo, AJs, AKo, AKs} the equity shifts dramatically to roughly 59% vs 40%, with you at 59%. Plus, if your image is moderatly LAG, but not LAG enough to check raise air in this spot, your c-bet will likely frequently get "paid" (abviously you still have yet to hit, but your still getting paid I would say), plus at least another barrel or two. He can still make a mistake and fold top pair weak kicker too! Also, even if he does smooth sets, top two, and big pocket pairs here occasionally, the range equity is still 56% vs 43% in your favor. So, if you find yourself in this spot again against this player type, barrel barrel barrel, because check raise just looks way to strong.
basically what i got from this is u think c/r is bad because my range will be too strong.
well ok that may or may not be true but even if it is true we can just add AK combos to balance if youre worried about that.
I mean the real point of contention for me is this: some spots u want to bet your range. Some spots you want to check your range. (and some spots u want to bet part of your range and check part of your range).
I think the flop is a spot where we want to check our range.
WHY?
BECAUSE:
if we cbet we will get floatted very wide and many turns make it difficult for us to play OOP.
if we cbet and bet/bet/bet were not really getting AQ maybe KQ to fold on dry run outs. (And were probably not getting paid if a Ten rolls off)
if we check we might see a turn for free
if we check/raise we can end the hand on the turn (AA and KK would like benefit from this)
if we check/raise we can polarize and put AQ and KQ into bluff catching mode right away.
Objecting that if we check our range that our c/r range will be too strong is kind of a surface level objection imo. (we can always just add some more bluffs if we want).