Hero is 30 WG. Has been playing tight and aggressive. Table has commented a couple times how my raises are always large and they don’t want to mess with me. Normal raises are in the $7-$10 range. When I’m entering pots I open to $15 and have gone as high as $18 OTB over a few limpers. I’ve also been using my image to my advantage and have squeezed 2-3 times out of the blinds with hands like A7s and KQs. [$400]

V1 is MABG - Tight player, fit or fold. Plays his draws passively and can find a fold with top pair type hands on dangerous boards. Not positionally aware. [$160]

V2 Young Indian Woman who is weak/tight. No positional awareness. I’ve been isolating her IP and squeezing her raises all night and she appears to have no issue folding. Not positionally aware and doesn’t understand how to value hands wrt board texture. [$280]

V1 limps UTG, UTG+1 folds, V2 raises to $7 , HJ folds, CO calls, B folds, SB folds, Hero is in BB with AK and raises to $40, V1 calls, V2 calls.

[$128] Q44
Hero?

I basically gave myself two options here.

First is lead out for ~$80-$90 and then shoving all non-Q turns. I have a really tight image at this point and i’m Going to bet a vast majority of my 3! Range in this spot so I don’t know why this would be any different. The problem is I don’t think a bet will fold out any Qs and against passive Vs a call isn’t really a great result because if I hit a A or K on the turn Vs are just going to fold and i won’t be able to extract any more value from them. Anything other than a A or K and my fold equity drops greatly on the turn.

Second is x/shove. I like this option a lot less because Vs are only going to bet a Q in this spot and if it checks through i’m In the same spot on the turn as I am with the lead out line above. Also, V1 is so short that I’m not sure I have a ton of fold equity against him if he bets and I shove. V2 I’m confident is only going to continue with the very top of her range and even then I think a shove can get her to lay down everything but strong Qs (I don’t think KK or AA is in her range a lot here).

Curious on thoughts on the optimal line here.

Need some new options.

You can bet small. You can open shove.

$40 or check seem good, betting 60-80% seems bad

I think given V descriptions and stack sizes an overbet shove is certainly +EV and leaves you little to think about.

Passive player, and fit/fold player. Both will have fair amount of Queens in there range. Almost zero 4's in there range.

Start by betting small. $45-50. Will get them to fold the majority of their equity (non paired hands).

Turn: Evaluate. Probably betting all diamonds and A,K,

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You are getting check/raised almost never on this board. So small bet, allows us to deny equity, and help us realize our equity.

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We lose both hand equity and fold equity on a bricked turn. Neither V has a 4. A shove maximizes FE against all middle pairs and these V's may even fold a Q (unlikely but possible). If not, we are 43% against AQ/KQ and flipping with QJ.

Bet 40. Jam turn if it's not a Q

Sorry, but can someone explain why bet $40 is the optimal line in this situation? It seems like that’s the action that would be most likely to get a call which is exactly what we DON’T want in this situation Given how our equity can drop on the turn. Given my V reads, I know it’s not to induce a raise. The reason I said 80-90 on the flop is because it gets value from most Qs in V’s ranges and also sets up a trivial shove on the turn. Also, I know balancing isn’t a HUGE concern against these Vs, but if I had TT+ in this scenario I don’t think I’m betting $40 ever. More likely I’m leading for the aforementioned $80-$90 or checking. I hadn’t considered an overbet shove. That’s something I don’t really use a lot in my game but maybe I should give it more consideration in the future.

I’m not trying argumentative, just trying to get better at thinking through these things more clearly.

You don't really want "value" from a Q given that a queen is ahead of you. The beauty of a monster draw is that you are doing well against Vs range and can essentially be indifferent to whether you get folds or calls.

Folding out pairs (Eg 88-JJ or even Qx against scared opponents who may assume your strength means you must have AA/KK) and winning a pot with A high is a great outcome. A shove in this particular hand is going to maximize your fold equity and when you add that to good hand equity against any holding but QQ, it is certainly +EV.

This was a brain fart on my part.

I guess we’re in agreement that getting to the turn with money behind isn’t really what we want to see though. I don’t understand the lead $40 recommendations though.

Leading $40 is just an option and against described villains they might fold, if they don't then you know where you stand.

I don't get leading 40 at all. I would essentially never bet 1/4 pot ever but whatever. Is $40 a value bet? It's not a good semibluff obv. Is it meant to induce? These Vs don't bluff. Agree don't see any merit.

I would just bet 1/2 pot here why do you want to shove? The board is paired. I bet $65. It would be a confusing bet size.

V1 has a pot sized stack. V2 has an SPR of 2. Both are described as weak tight and able to fold TP type hands. We don't really care if our shove is called or not.

$65 OTF; jam any non turn Q or 4.

ask explicitly how much V1 has and bet the size of her stack to show strength. you basically cant make her fold the Q given her stack size, and cross fingers hope that V2 fold the Q if he has it

Well first $40 is 1/3 pot. And $40 accomplishes alot.

It gets folds from most non paired hands that have equity, for alot less than jamming.

You are likely getting hero called by all pocket pairs, and definitely getting called from all queen's. Wether we jam, or bet $40-50. So we lose less when we are called.

Our entire range benefits from betting less. As we have overpairs, and AQ, KQ, in our range also. Betting less helps us get value with those hands.

So we can effectively bet 100% of our range on this flop (depending on our range).

Being that both players are passive, and fit/fold types. Safe to say we can bet/fold, and realize our equity with majority of our range. Without risking our entire stack (or even pot size bet)

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