ERRATUM : Title should say : [1/2] AKs 3bet pot IP

Vilain is a the table for 2 orbits now i think... 30s black guy looks decent but saw him limped...but not big sample to conclude anything.

He just won a 700$ pot 4 way including Hero and 2 short stacks :
EP(110ish) opens to 16, LP (35ish) calls, V 3! 55 on btn, Hero (280) is bb with KK and flats, EP calls.
Flop (Main pot : 152, Side pot : 50): 852hh
Hero checks, EP checks, V bets 90, Hero shoves for 225, EP calls remaining 36, V calls
Turn brick, river brick
V has AA, EP has QQ, the other ss mucks...

OTTH

Hero has 260. V covers (same vilain as in hand 1)

2 limps, V raises to 11 on sb, Hero 3! to 35 with AK, V calls. Hu to the flop
Flop (70) : T8x4
V checks, Hero bets 55, V calls
Turn (180) : 2
V checks, Hero ??? (170 remaining) Shove, check back, b/c like 90 ?

Any comments on Hand 1 will be appreciated too !

Thanks !

The pot on the flop can't be $110 unless someone else called also.
Also you're not OOP unless someone else called since you have to be in the BB based on the fact that SB acted before you?

Pot should be $70 on the flop, and if that's the case, the flop sizing is fine.
If it was in fact $110 (if someone else called pre flop) I'd prefer $65 - $75 on the flop.
Turn is a cram if we have a PSB bet behind (which we should, it should be $170 into $180).

Hand 1 is fine.

I edited pot size ty for noticing !

I cant edit the title tho !

Edited for you.

I think best play is to shove this turn. Check is okay. I don't like any bet less than a shove here.

I don't mind the shove on the turn if we know that the villian can fold TPTK. Isn't A10 in his range?

Personally this is a check back for a free card since we don't have enough information to know if he can fold TPTK.

Think hand 1 is fine.

Like all your action in hand 2 so far.

I'm shoving turn here. With just a PSB left, 2 overs and nut flush draw you don't need very much fold equity versus his range to be a profitable play.

What range do we give him?
Doubt he plays a set this way. Let's give him:
3 combos of sets
2 combos of 10,8
2 combos of J,9 including one with club draw
12 combos of top pair

Versus that range we have about 35% equity.

Don't need to get a fold in this spot very often for a shove to be profitable.

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If you shove - you really shouldn't get any calls from less than a set. You're basically repping a high premium pair (protecting the FD). And even if you are facing a set - you've got some decent equity.

Shove.

I shoved, he tanked, someone calls time, he calls and shows 99 meh i rebuy!

PokerIsNotDead

Sucks.
It's really hard having to make reads on so little data.

+1 This is a fine shove. Plenty of value hands repped including AA-JJ and have ~30% equity if he calls. w/o 2P+. V hero calling you here is whatever, you're definitely folding out many TX and PP hands from random villains enough to be +EV (when coupled with your actual equity against calls). This guy picks a meh spot to hero call with a card to come, a PSB to call, and facing a credible line. Good for him I guess in this specific case but if his strategy is to play 99 for stacks on a ten high board facing a 3bet-bet-jam line...lol...

Big hero call.

Question for you; if on the turn he open shoved the turn and showed you his cards, would you call?

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We have 3 A, 3 K, 8 clubs so 14 outs (little under 30% equity)
Ev= 0,3*(350)+0,7*(-170)=105-70-49<0 so no i should not call.

Other way to see it: we need to pay 170 to win 350 we have 2:1 so we need 33% equity which we dont have !

Just barely don't have enough equity - 31.8% according to poker cruncher. 14 outs with 46 unseen cards.

Looking at it this way you can see how shoving is so obviously the correct play. Against villain's entire range, if he folds to our shove even just once out of ten times, this is very profitable spot. I believe over time you get a lot more than 1 out of 10 folds.



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+1

With 9,9 I don't call here. I'd give hero JJ+ and AcKc, Ac,Qc.

Versus that range 9s are in big trouble.


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Thanks guys !

If you shove on the flop you win more times and more money then shoving on the turn. On the flop any other AK that missed TPTK will fold to your shove, so you beat with your AK the others AK ..., lol...lol ... Ha?

Any dud that may have flopped top pair on any random flop will not play for stacks vs. your AK two overs only ...,lol..lol.. Ha?

The QQ, JJ will think twice with horor when faced to play for stacks with just an over-pair, so they may fold too ....lol...lol...Ha?

Just today at "The V.." on the Strip I beat with my AK other dudes AK three times in 6 hours when we both missed the flop. I also beat QQ/JJ preflop that folded to my 4bet. I had a good day.

Just remember: When you call any preflop bet you hope to flop something like TPTK or a set. Most of the time you don't but so the others dudes. So, when they call your preflop 3bet or 4bet they are focused on flopping but you the big raiser looking to take the pot down. You see the big difference? ...lol...lol... HA?

I am sorry if the question is too basic, but i am new and learning. Why bet 55 into 70 pot? is there some calculation there, and if so, what is the math/reasoning behind? thank you.

I understand there are 9 outs to come that would make me the nut flush and 6 that makes me top pair big kicker.