I'm saying that you cannot compare shoving turn to just raising turn, as shoving is closing action whereas by raising you still have the river to play. I don't see what's hard about this.

You need to compare EV of shoving compared with EV of raising turn, which includes villain potentially calling the rest OTR.

Situation A: V calls a 250 shove 50% of the time.
Situation B: V calls a 125 raise 100% of the time, but potentially will call more otr.

Assuming we are ahead of his range then situation B is more profitable. What's more is that if he is folding 50% of his hands then his range is stronger in situation A than in situation B.

Obviously the numbers aren't necessarily correct.

Turn: A923 (pot ~$130)

Villain 1 bets out 50, hero calls.

River: A9235 (pot ~$230)

Villain 1 checks, hero...

Thinking about it some more, I think a very small raise to $115-$125ish, and shoving river is the best line.

I was wondering the same thing.

Like I said here:

I did acknowledge that it's not a true EV comparison, and I made it clear that the idea is the same as trying to figure out best bet size on river.

However, if you insist on figuring out EV between shoving and raising $125, you're not doing it correctly.

Correct, except that you failed to acknowledge the aspect of hero losing x percentage of times, and that hero wins $180 automatically 50% of the times that villain folds.

Ok, let's just use the range I had already established:

Since we're not raising to fold, how we play against Group 1 is moot. So the focus is on Group 2 and Group 3.

I'll just do EV calculation against each individual group one by one, and I'll start with Group 3:

Against 8 combos of 9X, we are not going to make another dime from villain, and when he improves (villain has 31.3% equity), we lose $250.

EV calculation here:

.687($180 + $75) - .313($250) = $175.185 - 78.25 = 96.935

.50(180) + .50(.687($180 + $200) - .313($250)) = 90 + 91.405 = 181.405

Against these combos, it is clear that shoving is the winner by $84.47.

Against 16 combos of A4/A5, villain has 15.9% equity, and we may or may not get a call on the river if villain doesn't improve.

.841($180 + $75) - .159($250) = $214.455 - 39.75 = 174.705

Assuming villain would call 50% of times on river with A4/A5 unimproved, we're looking at: +.841($62.5) = +52.5625. You can tweak this number around if you want. 174.705 + 52.5625 = 227.2675

.50(180) + .50(.841($180 + $200) - .159($250)) = 90 + 139.915 = 229.915

Very close, but villain would have to call at least 50% of times when we shove river without improving his hand.

I'll call it even here.

Last group, which is Group 2 (AT - AQ), and I don't think it's fair to say that villain will fold 50% of this range.

But let me just do the calculation first.

Against 24 combos of AQ, AJ, AT, villain has 6.81% equity, and we may or may not get a call on the river if villain doesn't improve.

.932($180 + $75) - .0681($250) = $237.66 - 17.025 = 220.635

For sake of this exercise, I'll tweak it so villain is calling 90% of the times on river.

.932(112.5) = $104.85; 220.635 + 104.85 = $325.485

.50(180) + .50(.932($180 + $200) - .0681($250)) = 90 + 168.5675 = $258.5675

Raising $125 + villain calling 90% of river shove is winner by $66.9175.

But if we tweak the number a bit where villain will call shove 70% of times:

.30(180) + .70(.932($180 + $200) - .0681($250)) = 54 + 235.9945 = $289.9945

Difference of $35.49.

Bottom Line:

Against Group 3:

Shoving is clearly better by $84.87

Against Group 2:

Raising and shoving is better by either $66.9175 or $35.49.

Feel free to tweak around and also attack my math if it is incorrect anywhere.

As played I check back river or call ~$125

Can't wait to dig into that.

Quick glance tells me raising is better than shoving. Since hands are weighted more to group b.

But before you rip me give me a chance to look closer, while not in car

Just played a session where 7 players would check this back. 2 players would value bet.

The 2 players that would value bet left with all the chips!!!!

So how smart did they look when they got check raised.

We beat 6 combos of Ax
Lose to 5 combos Ax...3 of those combos are heavily discounted.

It's easy value bet.

Even without discounting any of the 5, it is clearly better than 50%, which is all we need.

How many times have you seen
Check/call
Bet
Check/raise line?

JFC. Have you really not learned that LLSNL is all about b/f rivers for value?

Very few LLSNL Vs can c/r bluff, so when you fold to their river c/r, their range is crushing you. You'd have lost if they c/c anyway, so no worse off, just value cutting yourself by the size of the bet.

In the meantime though, they have a large range that wants to keep the pot small, but still thinks it might be good, so you get mountains of value for each "thin" value bet, even though it sucks when you run into the top of their range.

AP, bet river for a bit over half pot, and fold to a CRAI with confidence unless you have a big spewyness read or tell.

How often are we calling a river bet when its a heart?

Can we ever B/F this river with our stack size? River pot is 230~ and if we bet im assuming it $100 at least, are we putting in over 60% of our atack in one hand and then folding?

Why not, when villain is never CR'ing with worse?

Against an average 1/2 LP villain, I do it all the time and feel great about it. I have been shown a bluff only three times in my career, and all of them are guys I would have snapped off if I'd had even one more hour of history on them.

Let's say you bet all but the chip that's on top of your cards. You meant to go AI, but you forgot about it. V shoves and shows you a better hand before you react. Do you call for your last chip? That's basically what an LP is doing when he CRAI OTR.

Props to garick and RP Always very helpful. So if we're planning to bet fold should we bet less? Or will that induce us to be bluffed?

Problem with betting less is more that it gets us less value than that it induces bluffs, as long as it's at least 1/3 pot. I tend to go a towards the smaller side of my value range, but still in the same band,

BTW, sorry about the sarcastic opening to my response. I misread your intent and was still tilted over a defensive bad strat poster in a different thread,

Np. I tend to type first and think 2nd.

But when I read strat threads, I play as hero but I use my style. Thars why it seems my lines vary a lot from most. Seems like a lot of people try to guess what op wants to hear or "be right"

When I was new here, I tried to figure out what the crushers would do. Back then it was KneadUrDough and Quesuerte, in particular, iirc. When I started being able to figure out what they would do when I had the time to analyze it here, I started trying to actually play like that in the heat of the moment. My BR grew immensely.

Now I've got to the point where I can sometimes figure out what's best from theory, and not just from emulation, but letting go of my "style" was step one.

Thanks for the math RP. Looks like it's pretty close to even if you discount some 9x combos due to preflop and flop action/decrease the frequency he calls a shove with the bottom of his group 2 range (AT/A9ish) that would stack off due to feeling pot committed on turn and river.

I would also heavily discount flopped bottom 2 and top and bottom (A2 and 92) from his value range since he's been shown to fastplay flopped 2 pair hands and he's probably folding 93o preflop so that takes out more combos.

I think I'd bet for value here. Although a lot of the hands I think he's most likely holding beats us.

Based on his past actions, I don't think he would shove on us even if he has two pair. I guessing he may have put us on A9 - but will make a crying call with any baby Ace.

Hero should bet at least half pot - $120-$140 and expect to get called by any lesser Ace including two pair & straight.

Im afraid of one hand and I know we should never give our villian one single hand but for me that hand is 9h4h

B/f ~$100

I'm not trolling you here. This is constructive criticism.

Being afraid of 9-4 here is a major leak. If 9-4 scares you here then you are prolly only comfortable playing big pots with the nuts!!!!

1/2 is full of guys who don't play big pots well. You need to put those fears aside and logically think out the hands. When he beats us so be it. You already commented you would call $125 BET river.

Therefore your willing to call to bluff catch, but not willing to bet when he has shown weakness. So you are allowing him to extract more when he is ahead, but not willing to extract more when your behind.

As RP and Garrick have said. You can fold to a raise. This is a must bet for value, if you want to crush 1/2.