Are you afraid of 9-5 if 4 comes on river?

I really appreciate the thoughts and help and this isnt even my thread. I m afraid of 94 here because villian is appearing to play bi gapped suited cards against a raise.

Maybe thats why I ship turn to avoid wierd river spots where I cant figure out wether to call raise bet or fold.

Ya 95hh because I highly doubt this villain leads any turn with a 9 that is not 9hXh im also afraid of A4 and A5 that all have turned wheel draws.

I feel like thats why hes betting because his trash hand is now showing river value and hes teying to build a big pot for when his backdoor xyz hits he gets paid off. Thats why I want to lock him in for all of my stack cause once that river blanks i rip up a big pot, and when he hits he deserves it cause he called off while behind where as if all his 9x Ax misses he gives up

If that makes any sense.

If he shows up with 9-5 or 9-4 here do you think he calls flop bet?

If he is calling the flop with 9-4 he has almost no chance to leave table with chips.

You are missing a ton of value in alot of spots if you can't get mubs out of your head.

RP thanks for the breakdown. I can't make an argument against the turn shove, so I'm done playing devils advocate. Although depending on reads raise/shove is solid line too.

Funny thing is when he posts results both lines are gonna get hammered. Think we both know the outcome.

Thanks

Sorry Im a bit new here been lurking for years, but whats mubs? Also ive seen people in cali float on this flop with way worse than 9x and A rag. I play in so cal

Mubs=monsters under bed

If they are floating crap. Then print cash with big fat juicy value bets. Deny them odds to draw.

If they call light start betting pot on flop and watch you hourly soar!!!!

You should be value owning yourself quite often in those short stacked Cali games

Monster Under the Bed Syndrome

Ahh. Its just ive been taught to create a range for villian based on actions and narrow those ranges (or widen them) and call raise or fold accordingly.

So let me ask this what if villian open shoves river.? Do we pay him off?

Also sorry if im derailing the thread.

That's what we have done here. RP has clearly laid out villains range. Now we can try to narrow it to a river calling range. I did that quickly above. Once we think he will call with more losing hands than winning hands we can safely bet for value.

Does that mean everytime we bet we win?

No

Say we bet 100$: 10 Times in this spot.

If he wins %40 of time we lose $400
When we are good %60 we win $600

For a profit of $200

So in theory we are betting $100 with an expected return on investment of $20.

Understand?

Yes^^ ty vm

Thanks for all the replies, here's results:

Given that this Villain has shown the ability to show up with any two cards - I think you played it well.
Your river bet could have been a bit more - but otherwise I like the line you took.
Despite what others are arguing about - I doubt that this villain calls your all in shove on the turn or river. While he doesn't seem to be a wickedly smart thinking poker player - most 1/2 players won't commit to an All In without at least two pair. So even if you were convinced that you were ahead of his range - he might of folded to a turn raise - or if he called, to a river bet.
By slow playing your AK, I think you got good value considering the board.


BTW:
In these situations - I sometimes ask the villain after the hand is over - "would you have called if I shoved?" Don't know if their answers are totally unbiased - but typically they say "no." In the future, it's worth trying to see if you could have gotten more value from your opponent. Asking us is just asking us to invent an answer. No one would know more than the guy you were playing against.

gH.

Have you read the thread?

Yes, you missed value. Is it a catastrophic mistake?. No.

But I do think its big enough mistake to effect your hourly substantialy.


F.w.I.w. He is calling a turn shove or raise quite often. He is rarely folding.

I actually think you missed more value with your river sizing. Him calling a shove in either spot is iffy, so the EV of it goes down, though how far obv depends on his calling frequency.

OTOH, if he's calling $100 OTR, he's calling $125 for sure.