1/2, 7 handed

Hero (UTG) - Twenties, WG, Tight image $210

Villain (UTG +1) - MAAG, well dressed, sunglasses, limp-happy $650

Been at the table for one hour, table limps a lot and Villain tags along. Villain took down a couple small pots without SD. Villain limped in from the sb in a 5 way limped pot and led $30 on a 668ddx, everyone folded and Villain proudly tabled KQdd

OTTH:

Hero (UTG) opens AsKc $12
Villain (UTG+1) calls $12
OMC (Cutoff) calls $12

Flop: Kd Ts 8s (Pot $39)
Villain quickly bets $60 out of turn. Dealer tells him that Hero did not act and he pulls back the $60. Hero checks and $60 bet stands. OMC folds, Hero calls

Turn: Js (Pot $159)
Hero checks, Villain thinks for 7-10 seconds and bets $170

Hero?

We have 25% vs 88 or TT, 39% vs KTs, 43% vs T8s (not 100% sure he has this early position) and in bad shape vs a flush. We beat KQ with a spade

Thoughts?

I lean towards a call here, you have the As blocker here and he doesn't have many combo draws that can beat you. He can't have the KTs or T8s since the flop is Ts. Possibly Q9s.

He could have AQo but you have equity against that with a flush draw and a queen. If he has a set, his line doesn't make too much since. Everything else you have beat. Call imo.

For 100bb vs. this guy, I shove the flop over his $60.

As played, I probably call it off, but not sure that's correct. He just doesn't seem like someone I want to fold to, and we have outs

Being OOP I prefer to x/jam the flop, although flatting is okay.

Turn is pretty gross, but I lean towards a sigh call, since we have equity against anything with the As in our hand and we are ahead of some hands like QJ and KQ.

Given stack size I probably just call this off. The donk line is often top pair and we have toppest pair so OK. Also the donk line is rarely nutted IME. Not really stoked about it though.

Villain didn't donk and he seems loose/passive. I actually hate the spot we're in and would have folded if the turn was a blank, but now we may have enough equity to GII.

Fold. Close to nothing he can have missed.

I like flop call. You want to wait for an equity shift. I'd be okay with leading a turn pairing and a lower brick.

Pot is laying us 2.15-1 so we need to be good call it 1 time in slightly less than 3 to make this call. Let's say we need 30% equity.

If he has a flush, then we have 7 outs total so not close. If he has a set we have 9 outs, so closer but not quite there. Vs 2 pair we are in really good shape with ~ 15 outs. And of course there is always a small chance he is spewing too. So time for a little math:

Flush: V has say 40% of the time. Our Equity = 16% x 40% =6%
Set: V has say 30% of the time. Our equity = 30% x 20% = 6%
2 Pair: V has say 15%. Our equity = 35% x 15% = 5%
Str8: V has say 10%. Our equity = 35% x 10% = 3.5%
Random spew" V has 5%. Our equity = ~85% x 5% = 4%.

Add it up and I think we are short by a few % points. So it is probably an in game read spot. As Java said, I might have x/jammed the flop to at least put max pressure on his draws, but too late now.

Close, But I probably fold and try to goad him into showing me so I can adjust %'s better the next time.

I call knowing V has exactly TT, 88, or 72o, rasing the flop might be good too

Easy call at 2:1. Pretty sure this guy has 2 pair the vast majority of the time.

Btw he very seldom has a flush, because there are not many reasonable combos of flushes left in the deck.