1/2 Game at Foxwoods
Effective Stacks ~550

Read: Villain is 30s asian man very gambly. Likes to call light preflop and has shown down a few hands where he has overcalled flop bets with flush draws not getting nearly the right price to call. Very gambly and has won a few large pots recently

2 limpers to hero in cutoff with AJhh raises to $12. BB calls, Villain calls.

Flop ($35) J 9 4 rainbow

BB check, Villain bets $40, hero calls, BB folds.

Turn ($115) 2

Villain bets $50, hero thinks for a little and calls.

River ($215) 2

Villain checks. Hero?

Thoughts on how I played this hand thus far and whether to check back or bet river.

Check back. Then patiently wait -- if necessary -- for him to either table both cards or muck.

1. Your hand is not strong enough to stand a check-raise. Otherwise you should be good, unless has has exactly J9 and fears an over pair just caught up.
2. His betting into PFR a looks like OESD, which would fold anyway if you bet.
3. Your range is pretty narrow. We need to see his cards for information that helps us later in the session. Does he lead out like this with 9x? With OESD's? With KJ or QJ? Total air?

Against this type of player, it would be a mistake not to take the info now available. Don't let him con us into showing first.

This is a pretty clear value bet. His turn sizing indicates a hand that wants a cheap showdown {J7-J8, JT-JK, 88, K9+}. Also, he prob has some whiffed straight draws that are giving up like QT, T8, KT, KQ (does he limp/call pre with KQ?). I'd bet $80-$90 and feel good about it. Folding to a raise simply because he won't be bluffing often enough to justify a call, unless you have a good reason to believe he has lots of bluffs.

I think your line looks fine. His overbet on the flop is weird, but I like just calling IP. The turn is also good because raising just makes him fold worse and his sizing is not consistent with a strong range. He overbets flop then <1/2 pot on turn? Weak sauce.

Hand is wp imo, as long as you value bet the river. I think you're only losing to J9, but his turn sizing really makes me believe he doesn't have top 2.

NH so far. Th overbet on the flop is weird and I might fold to it, but never folding turn.

I would normally b/f for about half pot after the river check, but given the overbet on the flop I'm a little cautious, and probably check back.

Pretty bad advice so far in this thread.

Raise the turn. At that point in the hand you have to take inventory of his range. Realistically, I think the hands that beat us right now are J9 and 44. We're beating KQ, QT, T8, and Jx. He may be spazzing with some kind of 9, but I don't want to complicate this too much.

He's doing something I call "baby step" betting which is when a player leads for an amount on one street, and then leads for an amount that is only slightly larger on the next street. I'm sure you've seen this..Flop bet 20, Turn bet 40, River bet 40-60. It's almost ALWAYS a value line, and not a bluff or semi-bluff.

So that discounts the draws significantly meaning we're up against J9, 44, and Jx. We need to target Jx for value, and we need to get the other two hands to give us the info we need to fold. Raise the turn.

J9 and 44 will almost certainly lead the river, and if you call the turn, you are calling the river. Raising the turn costs exactly the same amount, maybe less. I'd raise to something like $135-$150. I'm targeting a call from Jx so it can't be too huge.

If we're thinking of continuing past the turn, we have to think about what hands we are targeting. If villain has JT, QJ, or even some of the draw combos of QT, T8, and KQ, then he's almost certainly checking the river unless he improves. YOU CAN NOT let those hands see the river for free

He may even fold Jx on the end if you re-take the initiative and value-bet on the end. That becomes more likely if the river is an over card. It's tough for JT to call if a K rolls off on the river and you suddenly start betting.

Thanks for the responses. After some short thinking I ended up checking back. He showed down jack 10. I was happy with the way I played it at the time but looking back I wasn't sure if I missed some value. KJ - J9 were within his range with his very loose pre-flop action all day.

played it fine.

bet 55 on the river and collect the money

Speaking of bad advice... This may be the worst advice yet in this thread.

You played this hand very well. There is no point in raising the turn because you will fold out all hands that you have beat and build a big pot with hands that have you crushed. Jx will never call a raise on the turn.

You should value bet the river like $60

You definitely missed value. I think it's unlikely he would 3-barrell with a the kind of hand you're targeting for value. It's also pretty dubious to expect him to check/call a value bet on the end. And if he would call a bet on the end, then he'll call a raise on the turn. Then you can check the river through feeling good about two fat streets of value for your one-pair hand.

The way you played it is the way most everyone plays it. And most everyone is a loser at poker.

At LLSNL, the one mistake your opponents will make more than any other is simply *playing too many hands*. Winning at LLSNL means exploiting that mistake.

So if a guy is leading into a PFR, and then double-barrelling with TPWK, then you absolutely must punish that by betting in situations where your opponent is likely to be caught bluffing, or caught calling with a second best hand. You're just exploiting yourself by letting the guy have a free draw to two pair.

We won't fold out all the hands we beat. You're trying to say that KJ, QJ, and JT will call $60 on teh river, but won't call $80 on the turn? Nonsense.

And if he does fold hands like that to a turn bet, then he's likely check/folding them on the river as well. Doing it your way just gives him a free shot at his two-pair, or to hit another 2 to chop.

If you get re-raised, you can fold. If he calls your raise and then leads the turn, you can fold. Simple. You'll lose the same amount to better hands, and get more value from worse hands.

Do you like money?

Grunch:

I think pre flop is standard. The flop bet from a villan like this is kind of odd. I do think I'm ever folding flop to a guy that likes to gamble. He can have straight draws tons of Jx combos and obviously 2 pair plus like J9 and 44 etc. Vs that range we can let villan hang himself. Once he bets so small on the turn I think we can discount 2 pair plus Very often and put his range and draws and Jx. That small sizing seems scared.


Once the river is checked to us we have The besthand most of the time and I think it's a slam dunk value bet. We get called by all his Jx combos and he just folds his missed draws. When we bet river it's to bet fold if raised because we are always beat. Bet/fold 75-85 so long as it's under 100 dollars so villan doesn't few it as too big.

+1 pretty much covered all of my thoughts on the hand.

AJ is pretty much the nuts by the river here so I'm going for a big value bet vs Jx and and a non believer 9x. You're never getting c/r by worse so I'm b/f $180

+1

Except likely more on the river. We are targeting Jx here, so gotta use our own judgement on what he will call. 1/3-1/2PSB is probably a good start.

OP, it should be obvious to you, since you play at foxwoods, that 99% of LLSNL are losers. However, they all have access to google, and many of them have found their way to 2+2. Therefore, you'll often see a lot of bad advice that is echoed by a consensus of bad players.

This thread is a perfect example.

To everyone who thinks flatting the turn is fine...what is your plan for the river? (ignoring the actual results of this particular hand).

Are you calling 3 barrells? Are you folding to a 3rd bet? How big would villain have to bet on the end before you change your call to a fold?

I think we all agree that villain's range on the turn is J9, 44, and Jx. He could also have some overcard+SD combos (KQ and QT). Whatever that range is, you are beating some percentage of it on the turn. On the river, the percentage of that range that you can beat is smaller. That should be obvious. If he has Jx, then sometimes he'll hit an X on the river and take the lead.

Furthermore, even if he doesn't improve. Plenty of river cards kill any action we could have hoped for. Getting value from JT is going to be difficult if the guy's lead gets called twice and then we bet on the end after an Ace hits the river.

If you raise the turn, and he re-raises, you can simply fold. You probably would have called a 3rd barrel on the end just to find out he has 44. This costs the same.

If you raise the turn and he calls, then leads the river, you can simply fold. Again, this costs the same as simply calling the 3rd barrell. I doubt he would take this line with a hand we beat, so folding is fine.

If you raise the turn and he folds, Jx, that's fine. He obviously doesn't love it enough to put more money in,. If he folds Jx here, then I doubt very much he would have called a value bet on the end. Essentially, all you've done is got him to fold out the few percentage points of equity that he had drawing to two-pair

If you raise the turn and he calls, then checks the river. You can check back. The flop was overbet and your raise got called on the turn. You've gotten two very-fat streets of value with TPTK. Your hand has plenty of showdown value so take it to showdown. Compare that result to the actual results of the hand and it should be extremely obvious that you missed a bet on the turn.

The folks suggesting that a turn raise folds out everything we beat.....how do you reconcile that with the idea that villain won't fold when we re-take control of the action and value bet on the end. Especially the dude who suggested betting $180. WTF? If you think he'll call that much with Jx on the end, why even give him a freeroll to two pair?

This is the most sensible thinking in this thread so far, and it's still the wrong answer.

See bolded, if you believe that, then why in the world would you let him see the river for free?

It's official, SpexDome fears the river. SpexDome is also in the top 10% of players in the Northeast. Therefore, the top 10% of players in the Northeast fear the river?

Also, if 99% of Foxwoods players lose, and you're in the top 10%, then you being a losing player is still a huge favorite. But that's okay because you've found 2+2 and have an opportunity to learn. That process begins with you ceasing to vomit nonsense onto your monitor and label it sound advice, all the while flaming the posters who disagree with you. Sometimes you hit the nail on the head with your analysis... sometimes. But for the most part, you could benefit from curbing your ego and actually trying to understand the thoughts of others.

Plan on the river is to call a small bet and fold to a big bet. Villain went from betting more than the pot on the flop to less than half the pot on the turn. I put less weight on 44 and J9 and more towards Jx at this point.

You said previously we should raise $100 on top of his turn bet. I suggested betting $60 on the river for value. So, in fact you a risking more money than I am in this hand.

If a guy has JT he's most likely folding to a raise on the turn for $100 more. Whereas, if we just call and the river comes a blank he will call a value bet on the river with a good pair, especially after we've shown no strength in the hand. If he calls your raise on the turn, you will be beat on the river unless an A comes out.

I fear the river? What does that even mean? And why is it a bad thing?

This isn't a question of fear. This is a situation where the villain has likely already put in his last chip into this pot unless his hand improves. Flat calling the turn only allows him to realize whatever slim amount of equity he may have left.

Perhaps you and others should curb your hatred for me, and open up your mind to the fact that you're leaking money. Raising the turn costs the same as a betting or calling on the river. It gives you the exact same information as a showdown. the only difference is that it folds out all of the hands that give us reverse implied odds.

If you play this hand passively, as everyone in this thread has described, then you leak money when he rivers two-pair. In every other scenario it's exactly the same EV.

It's the epitome of a leak.

Just because the forum here can't be honest with themselves about the mistakes they are making doesn't mean I'm "vomiting nonsense". Maybe curb your own ego and realize that what passes for a good poker player around here, actually isn't very good.

No offense, but You being scared of him catching up on the river is sort of indicative of what kind of player you are...

Definitely need to bet river. Not sure how I feel about a small turn raise, you may get more money from draws that call but probably don't get as much money from one pair hands like what he actually had. Yes I thought this before reading results

Flop call is fine, it's a big bet and it could be QT set or worse J.

Turn bet by Villain is weakish, so I'm discounting sets. Looks like a draw or a worse J. I raise/fold to 125 to target draws and worse Jx.

AP, I bet $150 OTR to get value from a pot controlling Jx. We are good here 99% of the time.

You're right, it's actually way better to over rep our hand and likely blow V off of his entire range (most of which we are crushing) just so we don't have to ZOMG make a river decision.

V is more likely to fold weaker Jx to a turn raise than QT-T8, so we accomplish very little (nothing at all) by short circuiting the hand. He just folds his 3 outers and calls with 8-12 outs.

Flatting and evaluating V's river sizing will allow us to make a very accurate decision. We already know which cards improve V's range the most on the river, so when straightening cards hit we can fold to a bet or check back when he checks. Likewise, when the river doesn't complete draws or his most likely 2 pair hands KJ-QJ-JT, we have a fairly simple call. Not only that, but we can get thin value on brick rivers when V checks his Top pair/okay kicker hands that may fold against a turn raise.

I assume you disagree completely with me, so spare me the rant. I've articulated my thoughts and tried to understand yours. I no longer wish to entertain this discussion.

I'm gonna red-font the shyt out of you anyway.

I'm with SpexDome on this one, I think we let him off the hook if we fail to raise the turn. He's a gambly dude, so let him gamble rather than let the river kill our action.

If we get 3-bet on the turn we can safely fold IMO as this line is almost never a bluff or turning a worse made hand into a bluff.