Live 1/2 NL with $228.00 effective stacks

Preflop: one limper, Hero raises from hijack with k10c to $11, villain calls from cutoff, button calls, limper calls.

Flop($47): Qc 4d 7c
check to hero who bets $23, villain calls, button calls. 3 handed to turn

Turn($122): Ad
Hero bets $62 and villain calls. Heads up to river

River($246): 7h - Hero($132) first to act to bluff shove or not?

Villain is a mid 30s gambling type Asian business owner who plays lots of pots but by the river typically either folds out or shows down mediocre strength at best. When aggressive post flop has shown down hands with stronger value.

Im obv hero and have played with this player on several occasions including once days prior.

I'd like to hear thoughts pros and cons (if available) on whether or not this is a typical good bluffing spot. I'll give the results at the end along with my thoughts along the way.

Certainly shove without more information. Try not to rely on your bluff being immediately profitable, but the bluff as a proportionate part of your overall strategy. For example, if you never bluff here and bet this river, then an opponent would fold all hands except his strongest holdings. Another example is that if you never value bet the river and you bet, your opponent would always call.

Of course, there are adjustments to be made on either side (obvious ones to an extent), but without further information, you'd best off bluffing with hand combinations in proportion to your strongest value hands and ones which make it less obvious that you might be bluffing the turn and then exploiting a likely call down by giving up on the river with such a powerful turn draw. To elaborate, let's say that you bet the turn with JT offsuit and gave up on the river, which goes check-check, and your opponent takes the pot with KQdd. Your opponent probably can't read much into your check on the river. However, with a check on the river with what was such a powerful hand, your opponent might (possibly correctly) extrapolate the river check to mean that you simply aren't bluffing in the spot and play better against you in the future.

Never bluff, your opponent folds more often and your value hands aren't called as often as they might be. The outcome is you lose value.

Always bluff after bluffing the turn with a lot of combinations and you'll be called too often, sacrificing value by risking an all-in river bet too often and being called.

That's a high level look at a fairly complex subject, but it should give you some food for thought.

You don't actually need to make -EV bluffs to get paid off on your value hands at 1/2.

I get the idea of balancing my betting range in relation to my card holdings. That being said I also agree that in live 1/2 you dont have to rely on such complicated methods as there are enough bad players that pay off.

Here was my river thought process... I was going for immediate profit/result here. If I thought the bluff yielded -EV I would have immediately checked. Since I was the aggressor throughout, to this simple minded opponent my shove screams full house, AA, KK or at worst AQ. Couple that with the fact I felt an overwhelming majority of his range consisted of KQ-Q8 and draws (this player type would call down with a bare open ended draw), I felt the only hands he would call with were random nut club draws (which ended up a pair of aces). I eliminated a flopped/turned two pair or set as the board was double suited, semi connected, and that this player was very aggressive previously when holding strong hands. No way would he give a free card with a set or two pair.

So I shoved... AND GOT INSTA-CALLED!!! My immediate thought at first was that the logic was way off.

Nope.

The villain tabled K7d for a flopped pair, turned nut diamonds, and made a sneaky three of a kind on the river. While I hated losing the hand, I loved the fact my analysis for pulling the trigger was spot on.

Imo there is a very big risk that the 1/2 villains who can fold a Q here getting 3:1 would have already folded the turn. (All other things being equal, people are more inclined to fold a given hand on the turn, knowing they may face another bet, than on the river.)

It's very true that against tough opponents they will sometimes call the turn with a Q and fold the river. But this opponent is not tough; and notice that if he had a random flush or straight draw your K-kicker plays and you probably already have the best hand.

I would wince and check/fold or mmaayyybbe check/call here with a tell or read.

I have a simple rule. Don't bluff bad players. Especially Asian business owners.

Yeah... In a nut shell, this is a terrible spot to bluff. As for shootaa's post... that kind of stuff is for way bigger games with much better players than this one. I totally agree with teh fact that if a player was going to fold a Q, he would do it OTT. Now with the 7 pairing OTR, he has an ace kicker to go with any Qx he had. It's the kind of bluff that relies on your opponent to be thinking to get folds from anything.

Only thing he is folding is a busted club draw and even then he may have the A of clubs and is never folding. Your line makes really makes no sense. You just barrel all the way through and would only do this with a very small part of your range. If you had more in your stack I could see maybe betting pot on the river but you're giving V good odds to call so I think he is calling more than not especially once he calls turn.

grunch: check

1-2 action games are prob worst to bluff in. better to bluff thinking players and tight players. sucks to get to this spot at the river with not even a pair. probably better to have made a semi-bluff earlier with bigger bets. in any case... i probably c/f. maybe villain will check back a worse flush draw. there will be better spots with calling stations like this.

I'm not saying that checking the river here is a terrible play. "You cant lose what you dont put in the middle." I just personally feel it's not the optimal play. I could be convinced otherwise, but hoping the villain will "check back a worse draw" just dosnt cut it.

Anytime I feel like a large portion of my opponents range is missed draws I add this to my FOLD equity. This IMO gives me MORE reason to bluff as i'm less likely to be called (so what if Im bluffing with the best hand???).

For the villain already folding any Q or worse before the river is slightly off for this player type. I agree yes some of the Qx will have folded out but again this "gambling" type of player likes to see all cards before exiting the hand. The type that considers trying to catch two pair a reasonable draw. This is why I say KQ-Q8 should still be a large potion of villain range here.

The two reasons above combined with the fact that for my bluff shove to have a +EV it only has to work approx 35% of the time is why I feel it's optimal when compared to checking.