Main villain has played very snug for the past 3 hours. Has not gotten out of line. We have about even stacks at $270. Straddle is on.

Otth

Hero is in mp with A (h) A (d) raises to $15. Some table dynamics at play here. I'd usually raise more but straddle is new player who loves to 3bet me because he calls me a nit so sized it so it wouldn't be too much


Main villain MP2 flats BTN flats blinds fold

Flop $52 Qh 10d 2s

I lead $35, main villain reraises to $105, BTN folds. He has around 150-170 behind.


Hero ??

Depends how tight he has been, have we ever seen him raise TPTK?

I'd lean towards folding unless I think he's capable of doing this with AQ (which we block). Mostly folding.

GII

I've only seen nutted hands in the big pots he's played atpit.

That makes this an easy fold for me.

I folded as well.

When I asked him what he had after the hand he said "I didn't think I was bluffing, but I had AQ".

That can happen when you grossly overfold your range to a raise. Sample size of 3 hours is not enough to make these hero folds

Any more info on villain? When you say he's tight do you mean he's only ever showed up with reasonable hands, or has he only ever shown aggression with the stone nuts? Does it mean he's only calling your MP open with 6% of hands?

To fold here we need to be fairly confident he's never 3-betting you pre with TT or QQ. This might be true if he wants to play those hands against you in postion, but I highly doubt he's flatting queens every time here to a MP open.

I'll break down what I would assume his range could look like, but this is with limited information. You should do this yourself as you have a better idea of what he could have than I would.

First we'll start with the value part of his range that we're losing to. That's 8 combos of QT and 6 combos of sets assuming he folds 22 pre. So in total V has 14 combos of value we're losing to.

Now things he bets for value that we're ahead of. 6 combos of AQ and we'll give him 5(out of 7) combos of AK assuming he 3-bets some of the time (this is the kind of stuff where your read will be much better than mine) totaling 11.

Now if he is SUPER tight, as in NEVER 3-bets AK, AQ, QQ or TT pre and then never raises his bluffs here, a fold here is actually good. We're winning 41.5% of the time against this range. However, if we give him 1 or 2 combos of QQ and 2 combos of AKs that he 3-bets pre, this fold becomes bad as we're winning roughly 54% of the time and if we GII on the flop we're making slightly more than double our money.

So my advice to you is to take the time to range him fairly precisely on pokerstove and figure out whether or not this is a fold.

Thanks for this breakdown. I still need to learn how to do this type of analysis - it felt close, however empirical evidence is obviously better than intuitive reflection

I do believe villain would be 3betting AK, QQ, and would flat 22, Q10.

When I say tight, I mean very strong showdown hands. By end of session, I saw one pretty loose/bad showdown hand by villain where he had limped otb with 105cc in a family pot. Other than that, ranges seemed appropriate, and in any type of pot where he grew that action he was showing down nutted hands (sets, two pairs, etc).

If you think that hes 3-betting QQ and AK at least some of the time, this makes this a bad fold. I can see how you fold though as it's literally 3 or 4 combos that change this from a good fold to a bad one. At least you know why and how to fix it now.

Breaking down hands like this is simple, time consuming, but simple. Download pokerstove, it's free and super easy to use. Choose one hand a week or every session or something and try to break down one hand in depth. Do it like I did, break each hand down into each category it makes it so much easier. Don't forget to remove cards based on what's on the board and what's in your hand.

GLGL.