South Florida
Button Straddle to 5

SB folds
BB ($140) calls (MAW Lady,has rebought 100 twice; I lost a pot to her when I bet 2 steets w OESD IP, river XX and she shows top 2; She also minraised turn w TPGK on draw-heavy board in srtaddle-limped pot)
4 folds
LP calls
Hero($300) raised to 17 A A . (Standard raise is $7-$11 at this table, and only one guy raised in another straddled pot w KK to $20.)
BU folds

BB calls
LP folds


Pot ($42)
Flop 257

BB ckecks, Hero bets 25, BB calls

$103 eff stacks
$92 pot

Turn is J

BB Checks, Hero bets $35, BB XR $70

Pot is $162, It costs hero $35 to call. If I call we have $33 eff ...

SO,
Should I be shoving here? Against a range of flushes, sets, two pair, TP w FD
that XR the turn, I am 39%.

w A I think its good because I think she stacks off w TP hands w a heart, sets, two pair. With A I have 57% since it takes Axhh from her. I don't think shes the type to XR combo draws since she's generally passive.

Calling seems ridiculous because of stack sizes.
Folding is also hard here.
Should I just almost always fold non-nutted hands to a turn XR from a middle age lady in South Flordida?

One heck of a second post.

This one is pretty simple - your effective stack is $125 on the flop. The pot is already $42. You should plan to get it all in by the turn when you bet the flop.

I would just bet $35 on the flop and shove the rest on the turn.

As played, I have no idea why you bet so little on the turn. I don't think you're folding now - as you note, she can have some stuff against you have plenty of equity, but I think the real problem in this hand is how you got here.

+1

If I could add, it might also be better to raise bigger against a button straddle. straddlers are already notoriously loose, and although I've only played w button straddles on a limited basis this only seems to increase their range + they have position.

When she calls (effectively OOP w the straddle) she generally has something decent as well. So w $11 already in the pot and a straddler otb I would make it something like $25 or even 30 if our button is very loose, this is both for value and to cut down on the buttons implied odds and positional advantage.

You might say that it sucks to only win $11 w aces; but think about it this way. Winning $11 risk free can occasionally be better than fighting for a $50 pot where you might only have 40% equity and your whole stack adding reverse implied odds against you and are OOP on 3 streets.

$20-$25 pre.

75% of pot on flop.

Shove turn.

$25 flot bet is pretty light. 35 seems better.

turn. check it back, or instamuck to the CR.

I don't mind the small raise preflop, nor the flop bet, you want to get calls when you have AA. Should have shoved the turn for value. Betting small just puts you in a reverse implied odds spot on the river. What she showed up with is irrelevant

Exactly!

But as it is now, I think it's a close call, but I would shove, she really might only have a good pair/overpair to the board and if you think she's weak, I think she's even bluffing gere sometimes.