Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99
If you don't know how he responds to 3betting before this hand it is probably because you haven't seen him get 3bet before this hand. That means he got 3bet once and called. It is a sample of 1 so not much to go on but we know he opens a normalish frequency for 1/2 and didnt fold to this 3bet. Alongside his tendency to l/c a lot preflop and play loose on the flop it suggests he calls 3bets fairly wide and continues flop in 3bet pots fairly wide.
I see a lot of loose Vs open/call most of their open ranges. Today I gii in a similar spot on a QJT board holding JJ after 3! a loose UTG opener. He gii on flop with QTs and turn/river brought no help for him.
Yes, this was the first 3b that I had saw villain face, and call. However, I have a hard time buying your notion because he's fairly loose pre-flop/flop suggests he can be fairly wide in a 3b pot as well. PF/Flop the bets are small, so it's completly possible villain is willing to call smaller bets to try to connect his cards to the board. In general, I'd say it's fair to assume that if a villain is loose in a single raised pot, he's capable/might be loose in a 3b pot. However, some villain's are the complete opposite. They tighten up significantly when more money goes in. In addition, it's also possible he's a bit wider in this spot due to being IP. But, all of these are assumptions of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HansSprungfeld
Just because we have top set doesn't mean we need to size our bet smaller. Sometimes that's a good idea (TT on T72r flop, for instance) but like Swoly said, this flop smacks his call 3 bet range and what matters for bet sizing is how it affects our opponent's call flop range, not the absolute strength of our hand. I doubt he's calling $25 on the flop with JJ, 99, type hands, but I also doubt he's folding a hand like AJ for $60 once he calls the 40.
Just because you've seen him be a fairly tight opener, that doesn't necessarily mean AT, KT, AJ, KJ hands aren't in his range -- he can just be card dead. And I don't think the lack of a flop raise means he's extremely less likely to have 2p+ hands -- he can be slowplaying (or worried about AK if he has AT, KT). So I'd go ahead and shove turn. From a combo prospective, he shouldn't have many queens compared to the number of sets and 2 pair he can call with (and we still have substantial equity against Qx).
AP, when he shoves river, we can't just say "how can he have a flush here? what dd combos call the 3-bet?" A $200 river shove tells us a lot more about his hand than calling the 3bet pre. It requires a somewhat odd play for this to be a hand you beat. It's either a puke/fold or a puke/call, probably leaning toward fold as gross as that seems.
I agree that he's not calling $25 with JJ and will likley call upto pot with Ax. However, the reason, imo, we can/should size our c-bet smaller in this hand compared to TT on T72r is because a bulk of his opening range usually have an Ace in it, and since 3 aces are gone, that leaves his continuing range with AK/AQ/KK/TT? That's a small part of his continuing range along with QQ/JJ/KQ/KJ.
I don't think he was card dead given his propensity to voluntarily play as many hands as he did. Yes, he can likley open AT, KT, AJ, KJ, however, as I mentioned in my post above, does this mean he calls a 3b with that range as well? We don't know. My assumption is to believe he folds AT/KJ/KT and play AJs which further narrow's his range imo.
Qx is even a smaller part of his range (6 combos of Queens, 4 AQ, and 3 KQs) which is something tbh I didn't give much thoughts to while in the hand. As I mentioned in the OP, I think the J on the turn got me a bit mubsy and it's possible subconsioucly I had moved on with my hand unless the board paired.
Can you elaborate on what you mean by "A $200 river shove tells us a lot more about his hand than calling the 3bet pre"