Hero: $350, Mid 20’s recreational player playing at the MGM in Las Vegas while on vacation. Have been at the table for 2 hours and been playing TAG. Have only shown premium hands, but I do occasionally call with AXs, small pocket pairs, and suited connecters depending on position.

Villain: $330, Late 30’s player who seems to be on vacation having a couple of beers. He is on my direct right, and we have engaged in friendly conversation throughout. He willingly opens pots in EP to $4 with ATC every chance he gets, always saying “to juice up the pot.” He rarely folds when he opens, having called with Q6o, 87s, AXs after a LP re-raise preflop. He tends to fold if he doesn’t hit the flop. I did see him open to $14 with QQ once. He seemed to enjoy showing me his cards.

Relevant History: One orbit ago he raised to $4 UTG+1 and got 6 callers. Flop is A55, he checks and a LP player bets $20 and he calls (at this point he shows me his cards, K5o). Turn is K, he prepares a bet but decides to check, LP player bets $45 and he min-raises to $90, gets called. River is 9, he goes all in for $70 and get’s insta-called by A9. Villain scoops with a turned full house.

Actual Hand:

Preflop: Villain raises to $4 UTG, “to juice up the pot.” I raise to $24 with AA UTG+1. Villain is the only caller.
-Villain's range: ATC

Flop ($51): 1073.
He checks, I bet $40 and he insta calls.
-Villain’s range: He definitely got a piece of the board. Either a set, 1 pair, 2 pair, OESD, or gutter draw.

Turn ($131): J.
He quickly reaches for his stack, but decides to check. I’ve seen him do this before when he turned a full house. I decide to check behind (should I bet?).
-Villain's range: 89 just got there, multiple 2 pairs got there (J10, J7), there's still the possibility of a set, J9 now has top pair with gutter draw, 78 has pair and gutter draw...villain's range is wide.

River ($131): Q.
After 5 seconds the villain checks.

Given the hand history and board structure, should I throw in a value bet or check behind?

Thank you for all your input.

Crappy turn and river cards but I'm still betting both streets unless he c/r the turn. His river check looks more like T9, T8, KT, AT, maybe A7 or 88/99.

I am going to trust the live tell and check behind here. Once we believe it on the turn, there is no reason to stop believing it on the river. Our hand did not improve and if anything, even more of his range got there with the Q.

Absent the live tell, turn is a bet ($100) and river is probably a check back.

I love me some thin value, but I think I'd have to check behind here.

The only thing you didn't include in your reads that might be relevant is whether you've seen him call with just a pair on the river in a decent size pot like this. You need to have a chance to get value when you bet here, and I don't see it.

Between the "reaching for chips" thing you've seen him do before and the terrible board runout, I think I'd just check and hope he shows me T8.

The "reaching for chips" thing is usually a sign of weakness when the player wants you to check behind. I have rarely seen a player do that and then c/r or call and donk river.

If he really isn't folding preflop (and with these deeper stacks, my guess is he isn't folding unless our 3bet is totally ******ed), I would try to raise to an amount that would setup an SPR of ~4 where we could comfortably pot flop to shove turn. I'd go to $35 - $40 range unless that is too crazy. Course, you might feel more comfortable stacking off to him at a slightly higher SPR (here we've got it to a 6.5, a little outside my personal comfort zone).

I think we should be making up our mind on the flop what our plan is. Are we cool with playing for stacks? If so, figure out a bet/bet/bet size. Otherwise, if not, then let's bet the flop to check back the turn to valuebet / bluffcatch the river. I tend to lean towards the latter in this spot but I'm conservative like that.

As played, even though the "reach for chips then decide not to bet" is usually a sign of weakness, I kinda ignore all that and realize a lotta stuff just got there (two pair, OESD) plus we coulda been behind to start with. I check back with intentions of calling any reasonable river bet or making one myself after showing weakness on the turn by checking.

My plan was to value bet the river, so I continue thru with that plan. To be honest, I'm not exactly sure what we get looked up by since our AK just got there, so I'm guessing the stronger end of hands (sets, two pair) are the ones that most likely call a bet. Plus Tx hands will have a hard time calling a bet with two overs now arriving. But we checked the turn so I still think there is a possibility we get looked up light. I'd probably bet on the small end here, say $60, and I think we can fold pretty easy to a check/raise.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The last time villain did this he had the nuts. If we can't go on the reads we get then we have to go on the board, and the board has run out a bit of a slag.

Check back OP.

Please bet turn. Please bet river.

If he check / raises river, then it's an easy fold. Also, we're really repping AK hard on river.

If that's the case, are we making a value bet or a bluff?

Gprobablyvaluebettingtheriver,butnotexactlysurewha tworsehandsaresupposedtopayoffG

B/F river.

You realize the bolded is always true for V ott when he calls otf, right? (at least, when the board doesnt pair)

that is to say, if he only calls when he has at least some piece of the flop, and he really could have been playing any 2 pf multiple 2 pairs always get there for him ott.

Thing is, many more 1p flop hands did not improve at all. You have to keep in mind that the turn and river are a lot less crappy than they would be if your V had a more typical PF range. A V with a typical pf range, for example, when he has a T, is heavily biased to hands like TJ, TQ etc, because he isnt frequently seeing a flop with T5 or T5.

I b/f this turn. If he calls then leads the river, i fold. If he checks the river, i check back.

As played, having checked the turn, when he checks to me i b/f the river.

hands that flopped a single pair and did not improve. much of the discussion of this hand seems pretty MUBSy to me.

V has done absolutely nothing to indicate strength since the flop. He checked the turn and then checked the river when we checked through.

I agree, turyia, this feels like a 2 streets of value hand.

And we should expect that if we go bet/bet on this board vs. a guy who sounds like a loose/passive, fit-or-fold postflop player, him leading the river is not a good sign for our hand.

I'd bet/fold $50-$60 here.

Bet turn

Bet / fold river

Bet $70 on river btw


My 2cents

I'm going with b/f $90 OTT and check behind OTR

AP - I'm just checking still

value bet river

Why would you value bet? What hand called the flop?

No flush draw, so that's out. Every straight draw got there.

So did he call a $24 3bet preflop with a 7 or a T in his hand and is now continuing with it?

Even so, if he does have a 7 or a T, do you really think a value bet will get paid off by ANYTHING which hit the flop now the straight card overs have come in? Nope.

Easiest check back ever. I think we're probably good but we're probably never getting paid. Pot control - we have one pair and are definitely overvaluing it on this run out.

Since you put in time talking with this guy, I think he is genuinely trying to let you off with a check here.

I would check back.

I have a harder time playing against people who are too talkative with me.

Tougher time ranging them.

^ this was my first thought too.

I was very surprised to read that Villain checked the river after checking the turn.

Normally, I would say bet/fold the river for about 1/3 pot, since checking both turn and river means he missed. But in this case, I think Hero's one-pair hand is no-good.

The thing is, any bet on the river is for very thin value. So I don't think Hero gives up much here checking it down.

Definitely do not show if you are beat.

RESULTS:
Quick Reminder:
Hero:AA
Board: QJ1073

My Action: I decided to bet $65 on the river…

Discussion:

I’ve been trying to expand my game and want to experiment things I would have never done before. During my first two years playing poker, I would always check back scary boards when checked to on the river. On many occasions I was told, “I would have called if you bet.” I sensed I was missing so much value. So this year I decided to add “thin value bets” to my game.

Although villain seemed like a recreational player, he boasted how good his post-flop play was, and the many years of experience he has…He seemed like a thinking player. So I decided to bet for a couple of reasons:

1. Him checking the turn and river made me feel he was weak. I would have heard from him on the river if he had two pair, sets or a straight. True, if I bet few players would call with one pair on this wet board, but I ignored my “checking back urge” and decided to bet. If he came over the top then it’s an easy lay down.

2. As grindinglive said, a big part of my range is AK given how the hand played out; perhaps I could value-bluff. If I did have AK, I just hit the nuts. Betting out half pot would force any two pair type of hand to make a hero call. Villain seemed like a thinking player, and given our friendly conversation, he wouldn’t think I was bluffing him. But then again, this is $1-2…

Results:

As I put out my bet, the first thing the villain says is, “Queen is the worst card that could come out!” At this point I knew I was beat. He said, “Do you have AK, it feels like AK, I know you have AK, you would have checked back Aces or Kings!” After thinking for 3 minutes he ends up calling…His J7 is good and scoops the $260 pot.

Assessment:

I picked the wrong time to make a thin value bet. I was discouraged (perhaps I should just check back like I normally do) and I wanted advice from you guys and looking at the replies this is what I found:
Bet or bet/fold: 9 people
Check: 7 people

Betting for thin value is something most of you do, so I won’t be afraid of doing it again. But the key is finding a better spot to do it correctly.

Thanks to everyone that replied. I’ve learned a lot reading your comments.

This is somewhat results oriented thinking. Remember, its all about galfond bucks, not skalansky bucks.

If you are frequently betting for thin value, youre going to end up valuetowning youself sometimes.