Villain ($250) is a quiet semi-reg and I have only a little history with him. He perceives me as a good player and talks to me a little bit about hands. He is very loose passive pre-flop and capable of making moves post-flop. He limp-calls a ton and rarely raises pre. Earlier in the session I beat him with a small river valuebet with 78o in a limped pot on 3568A board with no flush draw. He bet flop and check/called me on turn and river. I assume he had something like 45 or 46. In previous sessions I have seen him turn up with all kinds of weird suited hands like Q7s and T3s from various positions.

Hero covers and has a good, TAG-ish table image.

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4 limps to Hero in SB who makes it $15 with AA (no heart). It has been a "friendly" table and standard raise has been $7-10. Previously I raised $15 and got 2 callers and also no callers. This time I was unlucky and got 4 callers to the flop ("domino" effect). V is in BTN and the last to call.

Flop: Jh Ts 3h ($58)
Hero bets $45, V calls. Heads up

Turn: 6s ($148)
Hero thinks a little and bets $100, V counts out $100 but then shoves all-in for $100 more. Hero calls.

The old me would have "pot controlled" the turn and bet/folded $50 or $75. But I got flamed on 2p2 for doing that and tried to adjust here. Obviously I lost, but just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

Thank you

I think you played it fine. What types of hands does V usually raise on the turn and river? Pre and flop look good. The only thing I would consider doing differently would be to fold to the all-in. I'd need a good read to do it though.

There's $448 in the pot and you need to call $100. You'd have to be pretty damn sure you're beat to lay it down getting that price. He's likely got a lot of two pair in his range, but he might do this with AJ, too, right? If this guy never raises the turn or river without 2 pair+, maybe you can find a fold. Even if he's got 2 pair, you've still got a redraw to a higher two pair. Tough to do anything differently.

Seems standard, the turn raise puts you in a very awful and ugly spot but you really have no choice but to call it off. The pot on the turn is $448 after V goes all-in, and you need just 18.2% to be good here. I agree V's range is strong here, and if we just conclude that V's range is just {JT, TT, 33} and assume V would raise JJ+ pre-flop, we see that we are 13%. Add in 5 combos of AJ and our equity jumps to 26%, so I'm not happy about it but I have to call off here.

Ran it through PS with range of AJ, top 2 pair, and sets. Looks like folding is never an option on the turn.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,407,038 games 2.360 secs 2,714,846 games/sec

Board: Jh 3h Ts 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.542% 28.54% 00.00% 1828837 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 71.458% 71.47% 00.00% 4578833 0.00 { JJ-TT, 66, 33, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }

Seems fine, sorry you lost. V can also have QQ/KK and combo draws here. Never folding.

Haha, I actually like betting the turn for 50 or 75 if he is the type to fold a draw with the wrong odds and only 1 street to go. Betting this amount may make him call those draws or shove them instead for FE.

However, betting the turn 100 is fine if you think he can put us on AK and call us down with QQ/AJ. This would be wrong on the villain's part; we are never cbetting AK into four players with overs and a gutshot, but if he thinks that way, then oh well.

There is a decent chance we got outflopped here with against three callers with reasonable two pair combinations available. You said 4 callers, but the $58 pot looks more like 3. Unless this casino rakes $17 out of the pot (!!). However, the drawiness of the board makes me more willing to play a big pot (here that means stack off) with the overpair. Especially against a guy who can make moves.

I think you played it fine, NH. Wish you wouldn't tell us that you lost in the first post though! :P Also, there's one read that you may need to work on. It could be that, if this villain is going to make a move with a flush and/or straight draw, he always makes it on the flop when he has more equity. If this is true, then the turn is a fold because we don't beat any value hands.

pretty standard call. Nobody is folding for $1000 more. He easily could have AJ, KQ QJ, flush draw etc.

What did he end up having?

Yeah this used to be my thought as well... Give them something like 3 to 1 and then deny them the implied odds on the river. Honestly this probably was a good villain to try that against. He doesn't chase draws relentlessly. Only issue is... What do I do if a heart falls on the river? Check/fold and miss value against AJ/KJ? Or bet/fold river, but that would give him the implied odds he needed.

You and wj94 both said he could have QQ+ here. Even the most loose passive is raising those after several limpers OTB imo. And this V is definitely raising QQ+ preflop. I would not even consider those in his range, and even AJ is discounted. Lots more flush/straight/combo/pair+draws.

You are right - I messed up my math. The pot is $68, not $58. There were definitely 4 callers. I guess I could have bet a little more on the flop.

Thank you, that is really helpful. I do think the 6 could have given him more equity... He absolutely limp/calls OTB with K6hh, Q6hh, A6hh, 45hh, 56hh, 78hh, you name it. I also think if he had a pair+draw or OESD+FD on the flop he might be willing to get it in here. The odds were too good to fold versus such a wide range imo.

That said, I do think there is a point to be made about bet/folding $60-75 on the turn... but then I would get flamed itt

Nh well played. SPR of 4 on the flop means AA is still within its call it off range (just barely). The 6s didn't change anything on the turn so there's still no straight or flush possible. If stacks were deeper, like $300+, I would prefer slightly smaller bets like $40 on the flop and 1/2 PSB or even a check on the turn for pot control and trying to get to a cheap showdown. If he checks back the turn you can b/f a river heart.

As it stands, this looks a lot more KJss, QJss, KQss, 98ss, some pair + FD combo.

Actually I was advocating bet/calling assuming he will shove draws. If he does this with any draw he has, we can profitably call him.

However, some villains will do this all the time on the flop and never on the turn. In this case we would bet/fold against him. It's not hard to tell who is who. Think about the time he has raised another players bet. If, of the times he has done this, he's done it 80% on the flop and 20% on the turn, then he's only raising monsters on the turn. If it's like 50/50, then he has draws here and we can bet/call $75.

If we bet small and he just calls, we can check/fold the river when draws complete. If draws brick, we check/call his bluff. This is assuming he's not sophisticated enough to bluff ghost outs (like call the turn with a straight draw and shove when the hearts get there). I'm assuming he isn't this sophisticated, since most villains aren't.

It's interesting because, if this villain bluffs with his draws on the flop but not the turn, and if he never has QQ (and you are probably correct on this point), then we can actually b/f the turn. This is the huge advantage of having specific, street-related reads.

Results: V had T6hh and said "I wouldn't have called preflop if everyone else didn't call ahead of me"

You played it perfect.

Just unlucky...obv V shouldnt be calling with 106 pre and he luckily hit turn with only 5 outs...a turn that looks like a brick.