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Old 10-18-2017, 04:32 PM   #26
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 122
Re: 1/2: AA facing turn shove

Originally Posted by CWsports View Post
415/95 = 4.37:1 and 1/5.37 = 18.62%. And that’s the math.
If villain doesn't bluff about 20-25% we have no business calling bets against a hand opponent is representing that we can't beat . In this situation he's representing a Flush and he also could have 3 possible Sets on the flop, we are behind against all of them. The only hand we beat is AK or KQ for his TP.

The bottom line is this. If a 1/2 and 2/5 games when opponent makes a large stack-committing bet on the turn or river, assume it’s not a bluff. Even if you suspect your opponent might bluff sometimes, very few small-stakes players bluff frequently enough that you’ll want to call. If they’re going to bluff 10 or 15 percent of the time, you just have to give them those bluffs. You cannot call and be wrong 85 to 90 percent of the time. You just have to let it go.

This can be hard, I understand that. Many times we flopped something good like an over-pair, top pair or two-pair or whatever. Then the turn or river cards put straights or flushes on board. And someone represents one of these hands with a big bet. I see players all the time unwilling to accept that an opponent drew out. So they call to see it. And then, the vast majority of the time, they see it. And they lose.

You don’t need to see it. You’ve got AA or two pair. So what. If you cannot beat the hand your opponent is representing with that large bet or raise on the turn or river, you should fold. While it’s possible your opponent is bluffing, it’s almost certain, 100% I would say, your small stakes opponents won’t be bluffing frequently enough to justify a call. I'm sure about this like I'm sure what's my name. I've played in those small games for many years all over Vegas. I know how the small stakes players behave. They play certain hands preflop in order to flop something good and make some money. That's why they lose in the long run. I'm not going in those details now but that's the way they play. All of them have the same mentality. They don't bet significant money until they go it.

I our case the 20% is the break even point. It makes no difference if we call or fold because even if he's bluffing 20% we just break even. He's got to bluff way over 20%-30% for us to call and expect to make little money in the long run.

We make money in this game when we get called by the second best hand. Not by calling to catch a bluff.

Last edited by GenghisKhan; 10-18-2017 at 04:40 PM.
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Old 10-19-2017, 10:45 AM   #27
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 183
Re: 1/2: AA facing turn shove

His bluff percentage here does not matter. In the range that I gave him originally, there is no hand that we are currently beating and it is still absolutely correct to call. And any time you're saying "well he clearly only has flushes here" all you show me is that you haven't played much LLSNL. How often have we "known" we were beat only to have V show up with mid-pair no kicker or a wacky draw?

The math is clear: you need ~18% equity, and you have ~26%, not counting random WTF hands that he shoved because "you seemed weak" or "I have jacks so I deserve to win" "I need to go home and I hate just being up a few bucks" BS logic.

Call. Anyone saying fold doesn't know what they're talking about.
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Old 10-19-2017, 02:00 PM   #28
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: USA
Posts: 27
Re: 1/2: AA facing turn shove

This could definitely go either way. Calling or folding would both be OK. Ultimately some live reads (villain tenancies) would help you decide.

Last edited by SemiCharmed; 10-19-2017 at 02:06 PM.
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