1/2, BTN straddles 5

Hero raises 20 with AsAd in SB,
V (tight guy, 250) calls in LP,
BTN (fish, 100) calls

Flop (60): KsTc5s
Hero bets 45, V calls, BTN folds

Turn (150): 4s
Hero bets 85, V shoves 180, Hero ?

If you're betting half the guys stack on the turn you can't fold to basically a min raise especially drawing to the nuts.

Perhaps check/call the turn and go from there.

$95 to win $405. Even if he has 2p you barely have odds to call. You described him as tight. This is a spot where I probably fold and never tell anyone. I think he's 100% ahead here and based on an ahead range, I don't think there's any way you could be 24%+ equity against his range.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,244 trials (Exhaustive)

board: KT45

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsAd	19.92%	447	0
ss, KT, TT, 44	80.08%	1,797	0

I left out other 2p hands and KK just because they're not showing up here.

415/95 = 4.4:1 so you only have to be good 18.6%

Actually yeah I did $405 but even at $415 you need over 22.9% equity not 18.6%. If you think there's a >0% chance V is bluffing or doing this with AK or KQ then it's a call.

Pretty gross, sigh folding.

Call guy. Wtf was your plan when you bet half his stack on the turn?

4.4:1 pot odds is 1/5.4 and NOT 1/4.4 so 18.6% is correct

Literally the only thing I did at the end of your post is check whether or not you had As.

This removes a TON of his flushes and gives you a redraw to the nuts. You need 18.6% to call here and against a super tight range of KK, TT, 55, KTs (all), KTo (discounted to only those hands with Ts), and exactly QJss, you have ~27% equity. Given your hand and your odds, this is a call AINEC.

Why are we leaving out AK in V's range?
I had a similar instance last night where I bet 1/2 the tight woman's stack with my KK, on a J84r flop & she shoved. The other 2 folded.

I said, "Nice hand ma'am" & called. She had AJ & didn't improve. She said "I thought I could get you to fold," which I seriously considered doing, as I was shocked when she turned over her hand.

This is kind of different I think because of the texture of my flop vs yours. This guy just called the flop and then suddenly shoved the turn when the flush got in. He’s never doing this with AK (which we block anyway).

Yeah, I would have checked turn without the As. But with the As, I knew I had the redraw even if he shoved.

I’m just questioning if c/c turn and c/evaluate river is a better line here as LLSNL Vs play so face up and are never going to bluff me off AA here.

Fold,
It will take me 1/2 second to fold in a 1-2, 1-3 and 2-5 games. Villain bets full pot. He got to bluff 33% of the time for you break even. Players at this level don't bluff close enough to that number. If he only bluffs 10-20% of the time you got to give him this bluff because if you call to catch him you'll be losing money over the long term. There's no value to sniff out his "bluff" if he only bluffs under 33%. Actually in this case he's bet is over a pot size so he's got to bluff close to 40% for you to break even. That's pure math theory. Very easy to understand. Just remember the 33% number if villain bets pot size OTT or OTR.

If you don't believe me, ...,well.., just watch them play and see how many times they bluff for pot size bets OTT or OTR. You can even make an average per the entire group of players and see for yourself that they don't bluff enough over 33% for pot size bets on later streets to justify a profitable call.

Villain did not bet even close to full pot.

This is 100% a call.

clear call. friends don't let friends fold AA with 50 straddle effective stacks.

You have to call here, since you have the ace of spades. You're probably behind, but might not be, but worst case scenario, you have a ton of outs.

Yea, but should we be betting turn though?


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maybe bet a tad more on the flop and shove the turn. this is a shovel in the chips scenario. no reason to check any street.

That's the mistake when people think they must be good only 18.6% (and it's not 18.6 but 22.73)
That's not the right question of what percentage "we got to be good" ?

The correct question is this: Is the villain BLUFFING around 22.73% in this situation or less?
If the villain's not bluffing over 23%, you lose money when calling. That's the math.

In small-stakes games like the one above, you should nearly always assume that your opponents are bluffing less frequently when they shove all-in representing a hand you cannot possibly beat it. Therefore, you should always fold whenever your hand cannot beat any of the hands your opponent is representing with his $180 shove. The above idea applies in small-stakes games. In this case the villain is representing a flush or any of the possible Sets. It’s absolutely critical to understand this principle because if you don't you'll be up against a mathematical wall impossible to penetrate.

Re-ban outdonked

Genghis did you even read the hand history correctly? You are spouting nonsense. We have the nut flush draw on an unpaired board.

lmao, I was thinking the exact same thing

Oh, yes, I know. So, we're drawing while behind for a full buy-in when a 1-2 game player that doesn't bluff above 20% is representing a flush or a Set.

Yes, I know. We draw and reload after that. Nice play!

415/95 = 4.37:1 and 1/5.37 = 18.62%. And that’s the math.

^ Penetrate him into the wall you mean?