LLSNL has brought me some great wisdom in the past, and I appreciate all the help. Need you guys here again.


V: Young 20-somethings kid dressed nicely looks like more of a party goer than poker player. No real reads on him though as this is maybe the 2nd or 3rd orbit. He has played a larger than average number of hands. He is very talkative and doesn't seem to be paying much attention though.

Stacks ~210 eff

Hero looks down at AA

Folds to hero in HJ who raises to 10
V calls in SB
BB calls

Flop: (28) 7 T J

V checks
Hero bets 25
V raises to 75
BB folds

Hero ???

Call and re evaluate on the turn

I personally thought calling was the worst option at the time because does this not almost commit us?

Stacks will be 125 eff in turn with 180 in the middle

Then you ship it and pray

Fold. From your limited interaction with V, I would say he exhibits traits of being loose-passive. Here he makes a big raise and has a lot of plausible hands that beat you(sets, 10J, 89, and even Jxdd is ahead if you get all in on the flop), so give him credit. Vs don't like to r/f very often, so if you get all in expect a call. Fold>>>>>>>>>>Call>GII.

EDIT: Also would help to know if you have thoughts on what your image is to V.

ship it. Calling 50 more leaves less than a psb behind.

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PF: OK
F (30): SPR 6.6. Cbet is fine. Meh, we don't have much of read on this guy. I'm taking this check-raise pretty seriously. The board is pretty wet and we could be ahead of say a hand like KQ or a flush draw, but he likely has us crushed here. If we call now, we'll likely have to call a turn bet which would be $90 to $130.

If we call this C/R then we pretty much have the intention of calling down; I mean he's committing close to half his stack on the C/R and the follow up bet on the turn is going to commit him to the pot.

I just fold and hope this guy shows.

It comes down to the read. If he's capable of semi-bluffing or overvaluing top pair, can't fold. Some people only x/r big hands, you should fold to them.

How's that for obvious advice?

Gii against JT is a smaller error than folding to J9. One way to look at it.

I think this one might actually just be a fold.

Problem with this texture is the number of better hands on the flop. 16 possible flopped straight combos of 98 + 9 possible combos of JT broadway 2-pair. Contrast that to like a K96 board of the same suits - no made straights, no likely 2-pair combos. This hand has 9 combos of possible sets, but the K-high board is only 6 since no one has KK. So there's a lot of flopped made two pair+ here.

There's definitely a possibility of one pair hands with Jx (but 3x c/raise seems strange) or QQ-KK. And for sure, draws are possible, but we block the nut diamond draw and the Td is on the board... so we're looking at like KQdd (which is a high equity combo monster, anyway), KJdd, QJdd, Q9dd... and not a lot more (98dd is already a straight). We can add in a few lower flush draws, for sure, but we're talking ~8-12 combos total.

Could be going crazy with a pair + straight draw (J9, T9, T8, 87, etc), but I doubt it.

Our Ad is worth like 5% extra equity. I don't think it's enough.

Someone will have to Stove it. We're getting ~1.4:1 assuming V is never folding (a good assumption), so we need 41% equity to continue / stack off against villain. My intuition is it's a fold. The availability of better flopped made hands on this texture is important.

Actually, n/m, I'm probably not folding.

RRAI. Fold if you see his hands shaking and think it's a tell that his monster/semi-monster hand is already made, but calling and being the guy semi-committed whose hand is less likely than the other guy's to improve? Nah, that's worse.

Double inside straight draw? Yah right, if he flopped that, then it's a cooler, don't change your confident in Aces because of a fluke of luck. Only two diamonds on the board and you have Ad? You're ahead of unpaired diamonds, take those better-than-not odds. Jd+Xd, plausible from a player who'll go to the flop with weak hands, but still looking good for you. Inside straight draw, perfect, he's way behind, take the odds.

Set or 2P and you're behind? I feel like that makes up a small part of his range, with the draws being much more likely. Compared to everything else party-boy could be holding, it's worth it overall. No idea what the math is, but the ahead-of-you-hands are vastly outnumbered by his expected needs-some-help hands.

Thank god you came back from the abyss ...

The only dimension this is mucked is the one where Hero is somehow perceived to have exactly the hand he has by a V who has NOT 'played a larger than average number of hands'

In our dimension, the presence of the FD and SD doesn't just keep him wide enough to have those draws, but wider still over-defending his middling strength hands against it. AAdx even still has equity against the strongest hands in his range.

Shove and then call for chips about 40% of the time

Let me guess, you called down and V showed a set of 7's.

I would fold, but not necessarily give him the of having you beat yet, you just dont know him that much.fold for now and watch cafully if he is the kind of guy of cr draws, and watch he does with good made hands oop.if he is the kind to cr his draws shove next time on a similar spot, if he cr only 2p and sets in that spot fold, if he does both i think you have to shove and you have the Ad that can save you

2

Flop is to draw heavy to justify a fold. I'm snap shoving & feeling pretty happy about it...

Calling is not an option. Only folding or shoving are.

The range of what V checkraises with here is such that it seems superior to wait for a better spot. One nice aspect of H's hand is how it blocks half of the broadway draws from making it home.

CB like 20-22...AP it's close but I think Fold>Shove. I think his calling range is too strong here and often has us crushed. Even when ahead its close in equity. We also block NFD and some Broadway combos. If I'm certain that he will stack off light with like KJo I shove.... Ugly spot

fold