I've been playing for about 40minutes at this table. Not alot of reads of players in the hand as the action has been elsewhere.

UTG: limp
UTG+1: limp
MP: limp
me AA raise to $17 (shouldve paid attention to table dynamics and raised higher. the highest raise has been $10 so far and got a bunch of callers)

HJ (loose passive fish, station, inebriated or being a dumbass): calls
UTG: calls
UTG+1(loose passive, wide range): calls
MP (sat down 1 orbit ago and down about $200 out of $500 last few hands. got freerolled QJ vs QJ xxKTA. vbet a river with TPGK and got river setted): calls

Flop ($85) Q, J, 9

1 fold, UTG+1($200) leads $100, MP($300) smooth calls $100, Hero($200)?

I like the diamonds and I like my Ad but the board is too connected. T kills me. I'm scared about the smooth call. I think I do ok vs 2pairs and straight draws but both could have StraightflushDraws. Do the reasons for folding outweigh shoving?

Snap ship.

Shove. Td is great for you, they might have straight flush but way more likely u have the best hand by then. You have tons of equity against sets and two pairs. Even against a flush or straight you are getting close to the right price especially since both probably arent folding

I dunno.. you only have $17 invested.. aces dont do well in a situation like that.. you've got 9 outs twice so the odds are okay, but thats only assuming no one has blockers or hits any redraws.. also it's scary as hell when a player described as passive loose leads out for pot+.. I speak without stoving though (posting on phone). Would be great if someone can run it assigning UTG+1 two pairs plus and MP minimum Tdx as i cant see players as described betting/calling with less

You're pretty much never ahead, but it's pretty tough to construct a 3way range where you're not somewhere around 30% equity, which is plenty to jam with the current pot size and the assumption that you're getting called in both spots.

Shove.

I'd stick it in and feel pretty good about it.
You will get lots of calls from better hands, sure.
But you can get looked up / string along lots of hands with very poor equity, or equity that has little to no way to hinder you.

And if you are lucky, you will get it in with 2p, set, and straight.
Or set, set, straight. The sets/two pair kill each others outs, and none of those cards are the ones that you need.

And no matter what, you are almost never drawing dead. It's at worst a small mistake, and usually a decent +EV spot here.

Obviously if you don't hold the A it's a super high speed, insta muck, so fast that it creates a vacuum where your cards used to be. And then I thank the dealer for making it so easy for me to get away from when I'm clearly beat.

Actually, I think I fold here.

There is very little chance 1 pair is going to fade all the outs with two cards to come, so it seems to me like you need to improve no matter what.

And it seems like you have just 7 flush outs instead of 9. The T actually is a terrible card since now KX and 8X both have SF. So I'm inclined to remove the T from your outs since its extremely dirty.

If UTG+1 is loose-passive, then he has a made hand with the pot sized lead here. This is 2p+.

And when MP cold calls the pot sized bet here, he has at a minimum a SFD.

So with 7 outs remaining at best, twice its like 28% equity with two cards to come. Equity wise, you probably are not making a huge mistake getting it in here. But I probably let this one go.

This may actually be a call here. Yes, I realize leaving $100 behind in this size pot is normally quite dumb. However,
A) we have no FE
B) We may have the best hand
C) The turn changes a lot (see below)
C1) We'll still be able to get sets AI on turn if a diamond comes given pot size.
C2) If the turn pairs the board or Td comes, we can actually fold to 2 AIs and save $100 as we're drawing dead near 100% of the time.
D) There's no guarantee V bets the turn

Shove

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Thanks guys, I got it in knowing I made an ok decision.

wj94:If this were online I would snap shove all day evrryday.

Snowball2: Yeah that lead is pretty wonky.

What if I had KK?

Lapidator: Thanks. I was looking if any players would fold in this situation and you make a really good case .

BeakWetter: Interesting. It never crossed my mind as I saw it as a push/fold situation. I think I'm committed if I call because the pot would be too big to let go.

jamming is a bit of a gamble but it's a decent spot for a big pot. We are drawing to the nuts so it's never bad. Result?

Kk is a snap muck.

Yep.

wtf ship it in if we get it in vs 2 made hands its still +ev

Can someone explain to me why KK is a snap fold? I'm a newbb

Because if we get it in 3 way most of the time someone has the A and we're drawing to 1 out instead of 8-9 clean outs.

You might be already drawing completely dead to flopped nut flushes. (Whatever, .5% chance for runner quads). AT would be realy unfortunate. But AX is still really really really bad for us.

When we are drawing to the nut flush our overall equity vs their range is much higher.

My point was if a bad card comes and both players go AI even at ridiculous odds we can fold

Result:

Flop ($85) Q, J, 9

1 fold, UTG+1($200) leads $100, MP($300) smooth calls $100, Hero($200) shoves, HJ folds, UTG+1 all in, MP calls

Turn T

River 7

UTG+1 shows 25
MP shows K7


Merry Christmas everyone!

uh we have two red Aces, so flopping the nut flush is impossible.

I don't think we EVER have the best hand here...

He's responding to a hypothetical situation if we were holding two red Kings against villains.

I think he is talking about IFFFFF hero has KK with the diamond (someone proposes it above)

I think Lapidator is right here, if we are up against a single made hand of any kind, our equity is barely break even. When 2 players like their hands on this board, I think it's highly optimistic to think we have the odds to call/shove.

I think it's a sigh/fold.

my bad. apologies.