Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-10-2017, 10:21 AM   #1
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Hero, UTG ($700, tight image, hasn’t been involved in many hands except the one history hand)

V, SB ($700, seems loose-ish pre but nitty-ish postflop based on history hands)

History hands:

1) Saw V limp 43ss in EP, check/call medium sized bets on flop and turn and lead small OTR on a As5sTd8h2c board, which seemed fairly passive.

2) Limped 88 in EP, Hero made it 15 in MP with A4cc, 3 calls including him. Flop K98hhd checks through. Turn Ad, he leads $20, only Hero calls. River Ks, he leads $35, Hero calls. Again, fairly passive/small sizings with nuts.

OTTH that happens very soon after 2nd hand above:

Hero raises $15 with AA UTG,
Shortie UTG1 ($45) calls,
Another caller in LP,
V 3bets to $35 in SB,
Hero 4bets to $115,
Shortie moves all in,
LP folds,
V asks “$80 more?” and calls.

Flop ($135 main, $140 side): KQTr
V donks $100, Hero calls

Turn ($475): 8x
V checks, Hero ?


a) Preflop, I was fairly certain his range is JJ+/AK and didn’t want to 4b too big in position to scare him away. I know some of you will want to 4b larger due to deep stacks.

b) Flop, pretty terrible one so standard call. Maybe I should fold if he led out $200 instead?

c) Turn, how do we proceed from here? Is it possible he’s getting MUBSY with QQ/TT or is my AA always ahead? And if it’s ahead, how do I make sure he doesn’t fold considering my range is so strong on this board.

d) If I bet say $150 OTT and get called, what’s the river plan?
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 10:53 AM   #2
HawkesDave
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 398
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Feels a lot like AQ. Maybe AK but way more like AQ.

I don't see you being behind here unless he's getting really fancy with AT/T9 (I don't think many loose preflop Vs are 3betting T9 from the BB) which I doubt, since you already called a 3/4 PSB on the flop he should bet it again here if he had the straight.

Based on the description of V, I don't think he's calling with AQ if you bet the turn. I'd probably check behind (also keeps the pot from being bloated in case he has KK/QQ/TT) and then bet any non-Q rivers for about $150 if he checks ahead of you. If he stabs at the river I'm probably calling at almost any sizing, unless the board paired and he fires out, then you have to trust your read.

Last edited by HawkesDave; 10-10-2017 at 10:58 AM.
HawkesDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 11:34 AM   #3
WehrmatsWormhat
centurion
 
WehrmatsWormhat's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 140
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

I'd probably just check back, but I'm calling most rivers that aren't really ugly.
WehrmatsWormhat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 09:58 PM   #4
chop$
newbie
 
chop$'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Australia
Posts: 31
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

I'm checking back also. One pair hand on a scary board (WA/WB) I'm looking for cheap showdown.

I don't think there's anything that beats you that folds to a bet - to me this feels most like pot control from QQ - knowing UTG open and 4 bet ranges are AA/KK heavy and maybe trying to get AK to put in another bet on a later street.

I don't think there's many scary river cards either - 2 kings if V has AK and 6 A/9 if V has JJ. These are the only hands you beat in the range you've assigned V that I can see calling a turn bet.

Based on this, I'm calling most rivers depending on bet size.

As always, happy to hear why people think this is flawed.
chop$ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 11:02 PM   #5
BackDoorFlush
old hand
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,791
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Looks good. Now check turn and evaluate the river.
BackDoorFlush is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 02:21 AM   #6
flopturntree
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: ur girls crib
Posts: 770
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

This one of the few spots where you can consider going all-in to iso shorty and pick up dead money in the middle, also to get V to stack off. Described V is an uber nit if hes limping 88 so his 3b screams strength, he probably has KK, QQ or JJ, you block AK and AQ.

Folding on flop is too weak to that sizing and draw to the nuts

With that being said this V is never leading for 100 with air in a protected pot

As played its fine just check back turn and expect to be beat lots of the time. The problem is V's 3b indicates a small range of hands that smash that board.

Probably calling a river bet also depending on sizing but again expect to be beat more often then not..

Last edited by flopturntree; 10-11-2017 at 02:30 AM.
flopturntree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 03:16 AM   #7
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

To everyone wanting to check back turn, do we really think V donks flop but checks turn with a set?
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 03:42 AM   #8
6bet me
grinder
 
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 444
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
To everyone wanting to check back turn, do we really think V donks flop but checks turn with a set?
Mostly 2pair but yes. Bad villains will donk flop then x/call turn and river with these middling hands.
6bet me is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 04:14 AM   #9
cicakman
banned
 
cicakman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 9,231
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Very easy check back evaluate river.
cicakman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 04:48 AM   #10
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me View Post
Mostly 2pair but yes. Bad villains will donk flop then x/call turn and river with these middling hands.

There’s no 2 pair he can have on that board.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 05:14 AM   #11
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,164
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

I'm gonna go against the grain here and say bet 150... There's 3 combos of AK, 6 combos of JJ that we're trying to get value from, and 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of TT that beat us. I really don't think he ever has KK after donking 100 and checking turn. Yeah it sucks to get shoved on here or for him to call then donk shove a brick river, but I'm gonna trust my reads/instinct in that case. If V calls and checks turn, I'm usually just gonna check back, but may go for thin value if I feel confident I'm best.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 07:45 AM   #12
ROBUSTO8
newbie
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 44
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

I am also going to bet here. If he checks back a blank river, going for one last very small thin value bet. If he donks a blank river, I think I'm leaning towards a call.
ROBUSTO8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 10:05 AM   #13
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
I'm gonna go against the grain here and say bet 150... There's 3 combos of AK, 6 combos of JJ that we're trying to get value from, and 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of TT that beat us. I really don't think he ever has KK after donking 100 and checking turn. Yeah it sucks to get shoved on here or for him to call then donk shove a brick river, but I'm gonna trust my reads/instinct in that case. If V calls and checks turn, I'm usually just gonna check back, but may go for thin value if I feel confident I'm best.
This is exactly how I felt, however I disagree that JJ donks the flop. His range to donk flop includes all sets and AK precisely.

Once he checks turn, think we can discount sets mostly, so I feel a turn bet/fold is in order here. I get MUBSY and bet only $100 instead of $150 though. He just calls.

River is a blank and he checks again..
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 10:13 AM   #14
SwolyswoND
old hand
 
SwolyswoND's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,213
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Check river. If he really does have AK he's not paying off a river bet (what on earth do you 4bet with pre that AK is ahead of at that point?) Still significantly-less-than-zero chance he's playing pot control with QQ/TT or trapping with KK.
SwolyswoND is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 11:19 AM   #15
HawkesDave
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 398
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Not sure why you'd want to bet the turn for value vs AK after taking a passive post-flop line of flatting the donk bet. Once Hero bets turn, there's literally no hand that V can beat that 4b preflop with that texture of board. If I were V I'd snap-fold AK to any size bet on the turn as played. Any call is just praying for a chop and I don't see you getting two streets of value from someone hoping for a chop. Just seems so unlikely. You also can check the turn in case V somehow has JJ/QQ.

You're a lot more likely to extract value from AK on a brick river.
HawkesDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:16 PM   #16
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
Check river. If he really does have AK he's not paying off a river bet (what on earth do you 4bet with pre that AK is ahead of at that point?)

Do you really think he won’t pay off a tiny river bet like $100-150? There’s no reason to believe we’re beat if our read is correct.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 01:20 PM   #17
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave View Post
Not sure why you'd want to bet the turn for value vs AK after taking a passive post-flop line of flatting the donk bet. Once Hero bets turn, there's literally no hand that V can beat that 4b preflop with that texture of board. If I were V I'd snap-fold AK to any size bet on the turn as played. Any call is just praying for a chop and I don't see you getting two streets of value from someone hoping for a chop. Just seems so unlikely. You also can check the turn in case V somehow has JJ/QQ.



You're a lot more likely to extract value from AK on a brick river.

We have far more information about his hand once he checks the turn which we didn’t have on the flop facing the donk bet.

I agree I can check back turn and get value on brick rivers too. I’m just considering thin value on both turn and river though.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 05:27 PM   #18
SwolyswoND
old hand
 
SwolyswoND's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,213
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk View Post
Do you really think he won’t pay off a tiny river bet like $100-150? There’s no reason to believe we’re beat if our read is correct.
No, I really don't think he will. What on earth would he be beating with AK that you 4! pre with? If he c/c turn with AK, it was to improve to his nut outs. A sane player with AK on the river here isn't calling anything when he can hope to chop at best.

Even if he would call with AK, that's not enough to bet. His calling range OTR has far more hands that beat you in it than hands that you're beating.

4 combos AK,

v.

2 combos KK (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)
3 combos QQ
3 combos TT
2 combos AJ (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)

You need 50% equity against his river calling range to make a river value bet. You're not even close to that.
SwolyswoND is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 06:09 PM   #19
sai1b0ats
old hand
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,453
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
No, I really don't think he will. What on earth would he be beating with AK that you 4! pre with? If he c/c turn with AK, it was to improve to his nut outs. A sane player with AK on the river here isn't calling anything when he can hope to chop at best.

Even if he would call with AK, that's not enough to bet. His calling range OTR has far more hands that beat you in it than hands that you're beating.

4 combos AK,

v.

2 combos KK (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)
3 combos QQ
3 combos TT
2 combos AJ (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)

You need 50% equity against his river calling range to make a river value bet. You're not even close to that.
6 combos AK. Grossly discount KK,AJ. More likely to play AK this way than QQ or TT.

It's a thin river shove AP. lol at Villain folding AK.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 06:13 PM   #20
momo_uk
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,370
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by sai1b0ats View Post
6 combos AK. Grossly discount KK,AJ. More likely to play AK this way than QQ or TT.



It's a thin river shove AP. lol at Villain folding AK.

Thanks.
momo_uk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 06:55 PM   #21
chop$
newbie
 
chop$'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Australia
Posts: 31
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

The description of "nittyish post flop" says to me we don't get 3 streets from AK here ever.

This says to me if he puts in money on 3 streets we're beat with 1 pair.
chop$ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 06:58 PM   #22
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,164
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Part of the reason I liked 150 on turn is it makes a river shove much more difficult for villain to fold if he has AK... With 400 behind, shoving river feels a bit thin, but stack is too shallow to bet/fold... Still, if your read is solid, go with it and bet something.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 07:01 PM   #23
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,164
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by chop$ View Post
The description of "nittyish post flop" says to me we don't get 3 streets from AK here ever.

This says to me if he puts in money on 3 streets we're beat with 1 pair.
It was a 3bet pot, and V put in close to a sixth of his stack preflop. They don't normally fold TPTK in that situation, especially if it's massaged in...
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 08:34 PM   #24
SwolyswoND
old hand
 
SwolyswoND's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,213
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

It was a 4bet pot, not a 3bet pot. And I think you're all crazy if you think Villain is calling river with AK. What do you think he thinks we have?
SwolyswoND is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2017, 10:25 PM   #25
sai1b0ats
old hand
 
sai1b0ats's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,453
Re: 1/2: AA, $700 deep vs tighty on KQT flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
It was a 4bet pot, not a 3bet pot. And I think you're all crazy if you think Villain is calling river with AK. What do you think he thinks we have?
He's being offered 385 to win 1060 (or to win 340 if chopping). If you think he's got a decent likelihood of fold-pre holding AK, then river could be a check back AP. He's not thinking about we have, he's thinking **** I might be beat here, but I can't fold this hand, too much in the middle.
sai1b0ats is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:57 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online