Hero, UTG ($700, tight image, hasn’t been involved in many hands except the one history hand)

V, SB ($700, seems loose-ish pre but nitty-ish postflop based on history hands)

History hands:

1) Saw V limp 43ss in EP, check/call medium sized bets on flop and turn and lead small OTR on a As5sTd8h2c board, which seemed fairly passive.

2) Limped 88 in EP, Hero made it 15 in MP with A4cc, 3 calls including him. Flop K98hhd checks through. Turn Ad, he leads $20, only Hero calls. River Ks, he leads $35, Hero calls. Again, fairly passive/small sizings with nuts.

OTTH that happens very soon after 2nd hand above:

Hero raises $15 with AA UTG,
Shortie UTG1 ($45) calls,
Another caller in LP,
V 3bets to $35 in SB,
Hero 4bets to $115,
Shortie moves all in,
LP folds,
V asks “$80 more?” and calls.

Flop ($135 main, $140 side): KQTr
V donks $100, Hero calls

Turn ($475): 8x
V checks, Hero ?


a) Preflop, I was fairly certain his range is JJ+/AK and didn’t want to 4b too big in position to scare him away. I know some of you will want to 4b larger due to deep stacks.

b) Flop, pretty terrible one so standard call. Maybe I should fold if he led out $200 instead?

c) Turn, how do we proceed from here? Is it possible he’s getting MUBSY with QQ/TT or is my AA always ahead? And if it’s ahead, how do I make sure he doesn’t fold considering my range is so strong on this board.

d) If I bet say $150 OTT and get called, what’s the river plan?

Feels a lot like AQ. Maybe AK but way more like AQ.

I don't see you being behind here unless he's getting really fancy with AT/T9 (I don't think many loose preflop Vs are 3betting T9 from the BB) which I doubt, since you already called a 3/4 PSB on the flop he should bet it again here if he had the straight.

Based on the description of V, I don't think he's calling with AQ if you bet the turn. I'd probably check behind (also keeps the pot from being bloated in case he has KK/QQ/TT) and then bet any non-Q rivers for about $150 if he checks ahead of you. If he stabs at the river I'm probably calling at almost any sizing, unless the board paired and he fires out, then you have to trust your read.

I'd probably just check back, but I'm calling most rivers that aren't really ugly.

I'm checking back also. One pair hand on a scary board (WA/WB) I'm looking for cheap showdown.

I don't think there's anything that beats you that folds to a bet - to me this feels most like pot control from QQ - knowing UTG open and 4 bet ranges are AA/KK heavy and maybe trying to get AK to put in another bet on a later street.

I don't think there's many scary river cards either - 2 kings if V has AK and 6 A/9 if V has JJ. These are the only hands you beat in the range you've assigned V that I can see calling a turn bet.

Based on this, I'm calling most rivers depending on bet size.

As always, happy to hear why people think this is flawed.

Looks good. Now check turn and evaluate the river.

This one of the few spots where you can consider going all-in to iso shorty and pick up dead money in the middle, also to get V to stack off. Described V is an uber nit if hes limping 88 so his 3b screams strength, he probably has KK, QQ or JJ, you block AK and AQ.

Folding on flop is too weak to that sizing and draw to the nuts

With that being said this V is never leading for 100 with air in a protected pot

As played its fine just check back turn and expect to be beat lots of the time. The problem is V's 3b indicates a small range of hands that smash that board.

Probably calling a river bet also depending on sizing but again expect to be beat more often then not..

To everyone wanting to check back turn, do we really think V donks flop but checks turn with a set?

Mostly 2pair but yes. Bad villains will donk flop then x/call turn and river with these middling hands.

Very easy check back evaluate river.

There’s no 2 pair he can have on that board.

I'm gonna go against the grain here and say bet 150... There's 3 combos of AK, 6 combos of JJ that we're trying to get value from, and 3 combos of QQ, 3 combos of TT that beat us. I really don't think he ever has KK after donking 100 and checking turn. Yeah it sucks to get shoved on here or for him to call then donk shove a brick river, but I'm gonna trust my reads/instinct in that case. If V calls and checks turn, I'm usually just gonna check back, but may go for thin value if I feel confident I'm best.

I am also going to bet here. If he checks back a blank river, going for one last very small thin value bet. If he donks a blank river, I think I'm leaning towards a call.

This is exactly how I felt, however I disagree that JJ donks the flop. His range to donk flop includes all sets and AK precisely.

Once he checks turn, think we can discount sets mostly, so I feel a turn bet/fold is in order here. I get MUBSY and bet only $100 instead of $150 though. He just calls.

River is a blank and he checks again..

Check river. If he really does have AK he's not paying off a river bet (what on earth do you 4bet with pre that AK is ahead of at that point?) Still significantly-less-than-zero chance he's playing pot control with QQ/TT or trapping with KK.

Not sure why you'd want to bet the turn for value vs AK after taking a passive post-flop line of flatting the donk bet. Once Hero bets turn, there's literally no hand that V can beat that 4b preflop with that texture of board. If I were V I'd snap-fold AK to any size bet on the turn as played. Any call is just praying for a chop and I don't see you getting two streets of value from someone hoping for a chop. Just seems so unlikely. You also can check the turn in case V somehow has JJ/QQ.

You're a lot more likely to extract value from AK on a brick river.

Do you really think he won’t pay off a tiny river bet like $100-150? There’s no reason to believe we’re beat if our read is correct.

We have far more information about his hand once he checks the turn which we didn’t have on the flop facing the donk bet.

I agree I can check back turn and get value on brick rivers too. I’m just considering thin value on both turn and river though.

No, I really don't think he will. What on earth would he be beating with AK that you 4! pre with? If he c/c turn with AK, it was to improve to his nut outs. A sane player with AK on the river here isn't calling anything when he can hope to chop at best.

Even if he would call with AK, that's not enough to bet. His calling range OTR has far more hands that beat you in it than hands that you're beating.

4 combos AK,

v.

2 combos KK (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)
3 combos QQ
3 combos TT
2 combos AJ (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)

You need 50% equity against his river calling range to make a river value bet. You're not even close to that.

6 combos AK. Grossly discount KK,AJ. More likely to play AK this way than QQ or TT.

It's a thin river shove AP. lol at Villain folding AK.

Thanks.

The description of "nittyish post flop" says to me we don't get 3 streets from AK here ever.

This says to me if he puts in money on 3 streets we're beat with 1 pair.

Part of the reason I liked 150 on turn is it makes a river shove much more difficult for villain to fold if he has AK... With 400 behind, shoving river feels a bit thin, but stack is too shallow to bet/fold... Still, if your read is solid, go with it and bet something.

It was a 3bet pot, and V put in close to a sixth of his stack preflop. They don't normally fold TPTK in that situation, especially if it's massaged in...

It was a 4bet pot, not a 3bet pot. And I think you're all crazy if you think Villain is calling river with AK. What do you think he thinks we have?

He's being offered 385 to win 1060 (or to win 340 if chopping). If you think he's got a decent likelihood of fold-pre holding AK, then river could be a check back AP. He's not thinking about we have, he's thinking **** I might be beat here, but I can't fold this hand, too much in the middle.