Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
Do you really think he won’t pay off a tiny river bet like $100-150? There’s no reason to believe we’re beat if our read is correct.
No, I really don't think he will. What on earth would he be beating with AK that you 4! pre with? If he c/c turn with AK, it was to improve to his nut outs. A sane player with AK on the river here isn't calling anything when he can hope to chop at best.
Even if he would call with AK, that's not enough to bet. His calling range OTR has far more hands that beat you in it than hands that you're beating.
4 combos AK,
v.
2 combos KK (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)
3 combos QQ
3 combos TT
2 combos AJ (discounted slightly because he won't play them all this way)
You need 50% equity against his river calling range to make a river value bet. You're not even close to that.