Villain is 50's loose Asian. More passive than agro. Called a $40 open I made earlier from the BB.
3 limps. Hero opens to $30 with KhKd. Bb calls the rest fold.
Pot: 70
Flop: 9TJr.
Ugh. He checks. I don't think he has many bluff raises in him and I think he's playing hands like KJo QJs so I opt to bet $45. I don't hate checking back. He calls.
Live read: he only called 35 and acted disgusted when he found out he had to put in another 10. Seemed like a really bad acting job.
Turn Th. Check check. Pot: 160.
River 5h completing backdoor hearts.
Villain leads for 45. Hero???
Probably one of our best bluff raising candidates in terms of blockers but he only has 180 behind and we have some SDV.
We beat AQ/AK, random air, and AJ which I think should be a check but most people would bet. Lose to JJ, Tx, 99, QK, some flushes.
Never in a million years am I folding river as played. And I'm not bluff raising either because I think villain will never fold trips or a weak straight, so this is always a call.
Bet flop,
Probably bet turn,
Definitely call river.
I'm going to assume that he raises half of his big hands on the flop and slowplays half of them. I think it's a reasonable assumption. The more hands he traps the worse betting turn and calling river become.
I gave him a preflop range of pairs, KJo+JTs+ and some AK and QQ. I have about 69% equity vs that range on the flop and about 58% vs a calling range of any pair 88+ and AQ/AK. Given that he has 74 combos/110 that he will at least call a flop bet with I think betting is best. There are a lot of worse hands I can get action from and I only lose to 19 combos. Included in those 19 combos is JTs which I don't even know he has.
Let's say he would raise his sets and JT here and flat the rest and proceed to the turn.
The turn brings the Th which actually improves my equity against his calling range from 69->75.
At this point if I bet I think I get him to fold out AQ/AK/88. Even if he never had KJ or QJs in his calling range preflop I could still bet turn. I get action from AJo, AJs, KJs, QQ, and I lose to KQs, KQo. I have the best hand on the turn about 70% of the time even without KJ or QJ in the range. Sure he may still have some sets but he can also have some random **** in there that I eliminated like AQ or 88.
Now, just because I'm usually ahead doesn't mean I have to bet now. I might not be able to get 3 streets out of a jack and checking saves me money against KQ or any slowplayed hands. His hands like AQ/AJ only have about 16% equity so letting him see a free card isn't a disaster.
I think after looking at the data I like a bet on the turn but I think it's close.
As played I check and the river is the 5h. Not a bad river card as I should rate to have the best hand 78% of the time if he has QJs and KJo in his range and 76% of the time if he does not.
Now he opts to lead. I need to be right here about 22% of the time to make the call.
So if he has all the KQ, that's 8 combos. I need him to have 4 combos of hands I beat to make this call. If he's betting 2/12 combos of AJ and just 2 combos of AQ or random air, then this is a profitable call. Sure he can have some sets still, but maybe he raises some of his KQ on the flop. I think saying he raises 8/16 of his combos of big hands on the flop isn't too generous.
I think this becomes a pretty clear call as I have broken it down.
The last piece of super sophisticated 2000 NL level analysis I have is I have an overpair vs a tiny bet on the river on a bricked run out, don't be a ****ing nit lol.
This would be a pretty horrible bluff raise. You'd want to bluff with a hand like Q9 or K9. Our hand blocks zero combinations of the nuts and is ahead of so many hands already. You played it well imo
