1/2 AA 250bb deep vs possible whale, preflop spot - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Grunch:

Super easy to get stacks in on like all flops, so call. Don't spoil any potential that whale goes ape sh*t and lol 5bets. You're getting BB's stack no matter what whale does.

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05-27-2015 , 08:00 PM

#27

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Grunch

Flat

If the whale folds, you have an SPR < 1, ie you're shoving flop no matter what (or calling a shove)

If the whale calls, you have an SPR < 2, ie you're betting the flop, shoving the turn.

Raising only lets them get away from worse hands

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05-27-2015 , 11:27 PM

#28

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Grunch

When you have AA you want all 9 players to go all-in preflop because it has the highest EV. Therefore, going AI 3-way is better than AI 2-way here and by just flatting the BB you give the whale the option to come along (or better yet shove).

Either way, you are stacking off on any flop and you have position so ... flat.

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05-28-2015 , 12:56 AM

#29

SillyRabbit

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 322

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Wait -what? Is that actually true? How can we have a better EV vs 9 players we lose with AA very often when so many see the flop. maybe I need to do more maths.... :/

Sent from my SCH-I545 using 2+2 Forums

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05-28-2015 , 11:26 AM

#30

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by SillyRabbit

Wait -what? Is that actually true? How can we have a better EV vs 9 players we lose with AA very often when so many see the flop. maybe I need to do more maths.... :/

assumptions:
hands are AIPF
all Vs hands are random
everyone has 100bb
----------------------------

against 9 random hands, AA is ~31% to win.
against 1 random hand, AA is ~85% to win

the EV of playing vs 9 hands:
(.31*9*100bb) - [(1-.31)*100bb] = 279bb - 138bb = 141bb

the EV of playing vs 1 hand:
(.85*100bb) - [(1-.85)*100bb] = 85bb - 15bb = 70bb

AIPF (9 Vs) - AIPF (1 V) = 141bb - 70bb = +71bb

if Hero had KK: 82.9bb - 64.8bb = +18.1bb
if Hero had QQ: 47.4bb - 59.8bb = -12.4

Last edited by johnny_on_the_spot; 05-28-2015 at 11:33 AM.

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