Table info:
Hero had been playing for about 4 hours with the villain. I am a reg at this game but have never played with the villain before tonight. The table has been very loose passive post flop and pretty limpy and loose pre. I have been trying to play as many pots as possible in position and have a very aggro image post flop. Have been caught twice on a double barrel bluff going to showdown. The villain is the most solid rec at the table. Plays position very well. He is about 50-55 and seems to put a lot of pressure on people and ending hands before the river.

OTTH

Hero is in MP with 99 and a stack of $600. 3 limps and decide to limp as well. Villain who covers, is on the button 4 limps including me to him and he raises to $20. UTG +1 calls and I call. (pot $64)

Flop is 10x 2d 6d. UTG +1 checks, hero checks and villain bets $45. UTG +1 folds I call. (pot $154)

Turn is 7x. Hero checks, villain bets $80. Hero?

I don't like this spot, but call and check-call river.

Raise pre

I think raising could be good, so could calling and blasting scary rivers

I don't think we are ahead very often here

OP, please include pot size on each street.

A good solid player raised pre and bet twice. All you beat is hands like AQ of diamonds and that's a lot of outs to fade OTR and you won't know which paint card hits him.

I'd need better reads before calling. Does he fire three shells often? Or does he check back riv a lot? If we call and river is 3x and he fires again, are you prepared to call? Answering these questions will help determine what to do here.

post is updated with pot size.

1. Every time I've seen him get to showdown heads up he has the goods. If he fires river after I check he is likely to have it.

2. Depending on bet size.

The main problem I have with this hand is I really have no idea where I am. The original plan was to set mine and get away, but otf I still have the best hand a lot. So it was a tough spot for me.

Thanks for the updated post. I think your flop call was perfectly reasonable. You have the best hand often, which means you have the best hand often on this turn too. It's just a matter of needing better reads.

If V is the type to shut down OTR with AK, then we can call here. But if he will fire again OTR, then it makes calling here very tough.

Looks like he tends to fire half pot. If we're not prepared to call half pot on 3x river, then I think we have to fold.

I think we should donk bet 40ish into pre flop raiser on the flop. We have the best hand a good % of the time on the flop. V1 and 2 most likely have overs, if v2 checks behind hero there are a lot of scare cards that can hit the turn a good % of the time.
As played call the turn and put out a blocker bet on river.

(Harrahs Cherokee?)

You called preflop hoping to hit a set against a big stack. You missed.
You called the flop hoping that Villain was just making a c-bet with overs.
His turn bet is telling you that this is not true.
Is he just fooling around?
Then you have no reason to believe you are likely ahead.

What are you hoping Villain has here?
Villain can easily have an Overpair or even just the Ten.
This is a "barely ahead - way behind" situation.

Being out of position means that you will win minimally when you are best, but lose maximum when you are worst.

You have a middle pair out of position against a preflop raiser who has shown aggression on 3 streets.
This is not a good situation for lots of reasons.
Get out.


--CM

Shouldn't V be playing the hand this way with his entire range?