1/2
(BB vs. UTG +2)



(BB) Hero $485: 87
(UTG +2) Villain $700: Top 7% range, solid player sort of fit-or-fold is a TAG generally, can make big-folds/hero-folds is a thinking player (based on prior hands i saw which is why i called), won't bet his nut draws aggressively sort of unbalanced in this sense (will check back a lot of his strong draws and only bet when he has it) perceives me to be solid

Preflop: 2 limps, Villain raises to 17, Hero cold calls in BB, everyone else folds (HU to the pot)

Flop, Pot = 40
956
Hero x, Villain bets 25, Hero x-calls 25

Turn, Pot = 90
2
Hero x, Villain bets 65, Hero x-calls 65

River, Pot = 220
9
Hero x, Villain x back

Reasoning for my line was that if i x-raised i felt that villain would fold A LOT of his overpair hands like most of his value range (he won't call raises/x-raises and then x-fold on upcoming streets if he is calling a raise he will call bets and NOT X-FOLD on future streets majority of the time).
Also given that we just flatted in the BB our range is weak compared to his so when we x-raise it looks really strong and i do prefer leading (for 3-barrels & depending on board run out as well) now that i think about it. Also i did think that this v would go for pot control OTT or OTR SOME of the time... leading OTF would be best w/o turning our hand face up.

My plan was to x-call all 3 streets because this villain would def fire 3 streets with an over pair because we have a wide perceived range and can just have a pair + draw type of hand (TT+ prolly not on this river though). It's hard to get stacks in vs. this villain when we have the nuts and in general given we are OOP.

Never making a bet or a raise on the flop or the turn when you have the nuts AND there are a lot of possible draws out there is absolutely criminal. I would bet/call flop and bet/3B the turn if possible.

If your plan was seriously to CHECK-CALL all three streets, you need better plans!

Yeah i thought a lead was so much better lmao idk why im so bad, but to be fair he didn't have any draws in his range OTF, OTT i can see him having a FD with an overpair... lol

raise the flop. Villain is never folding an overpair to a raise in a heads up pot and may actually shove over your check raise if he holds AA or KK. This board is super wet and there are tons of scare cards that can come on the turn that will make V slow down with an overpair.

I would lead all the way. It's the only way to get any value from draws if he doesn't bet them and it doesn't look as strong as a x/r. Just calling his c-bet seems fine if he's really nitty enough to fold his entire range to a x/r.

I'd lead the turn, and raise after he bets. It kind of turns your hand into a bluff, but he rarely has a flush and you can still get value from overpairs with a diamond.

You definitely have to bet the river here. He's not going to bet again with an overpair. I would "same bet" $65.

WA/WB OTR i'd prolly have to bet like 1/3 pot super thin spot tho to get called like i really can't have any bluffs OTR if i lead out... pretty much blundered flop decision made the hand extremely hard to play lol

Why can't you have any bluffs here? I would lead 100% of my range on this river against this player.