Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
Why is it a snap call? I'm not opposed to hearing why but:
A) We're in the worst possible position post flop, and
B) We don't have reads or stack sizes of the others in the field other than "ranging from $100-350".
One reason pre-flop is a call is that we have the correct *DIRECT* odds to flop a set. You can almost disregard implied odds, and stack sizes barely matter. Six villains put in 13, and we have 2 in already; 11 to call and close action with a pot of 80. 80:11 = 7.3:1. We're 7.5:1 to flop a set. So in this situation, we need to win like $2 on average when we flop a set to make our call pre-flop +EV.
So pre is a clear call, though the variables you're citing - position and stack depth - do matter, the call is profitable. And I think it's very profitable - this is a dream spot, and I expect to win much more than $2 on average when we flop a set here multi-way. So many great flops for our hand (A7x, K7x, Q7x, J7x, T7x, etc) give villains top pair hands with a low SPR, and we can often win a stack.
Flop is perfect. The plan imo is to c/c and then lead turns. We c/c so we don't blow people off worse / airy hands w/overcards. When the flop checks through, that's generally fine and gives a villain a chance to catch up. We lead turns to continue to get value (or to start getting value if the flop checked through), and we benefit from the possibility the turn is a J,Q,K,A type card, improving a villain, especially if there's a c-bet with air.
As played, given remaining stack sizes at the table, I'm definitely betting close to pot - probably 80 - on the turn. If someone with a deeper stack calls, we'll have 1 PSB or less on the river. Flop checking through and turn is an ace in a 7-way pot = ideal scenario. It's fairly likely someone here has an ace.
Sizing is important on the turn. 50 is FAR too small a turn bet and FPS imo. It doesn't achieve anything we want it to achieve. We need to think about how and when we capture value from the ranges of hands we're targeting - in this case turned top pair+ and flush draws, perhaps the OESD, perhaps gut shots. On average, that range of hands calls 80 nearly as often as it calls 50.
I like betting turn quite a bit more than check/raising because when we bet pot, we can still definitely get in stacks by the river against Ax even facing one of the larger stacks (bet + a call = pot of 240). In that way, check/raising is unnecessary and a touch FPS. Further, when we check/raise, we risk someone folding hands as strong as Ax. And when we check, it's also possible people will check behind with various hands.
Betting ensures we get more money into the pot. Again, we're targeting Ax+, the straight draw (87), and the club draw as well as a very stationy gut shots (KQ,KJ,QJ) - by the way, if those gut shots won't call a bet of 80, and I don't expect they will, that's OK - we certainly prefer they fold on the turn than get a free card to improve. Gut shots also comprise a small % of ranges.