Reads: Total unknown. Have seen zero showdowns from him and he's seen zero showdowns from me. I've been at the table for about 20 minutes and have $180, villain covers.

Folds to the button who limps. SB (villain) completes and I raise to $10 with 66 in the BB. Button folds and villain calls.

Flop: 543. He check/calls $15.

Turn: 5433. He check/calls $30.

River: 54338. He leads for $50. Hero?

Raising pre is good and fine, but $10 is too small. You basically have 2 limpers, and you're going to be oop vs. BTN for the entire hand if he calls. You have the best hand now, but almost never by much. I'd make it $14.

Taking this down pre-flop would have been great (people would have folded tons of overcards to your 66), but ending up in position vs. SB is always good too.

Flop looks good. Plenty of value.

Turn looks good. Still plenty of value against draws, gut shots, etc. I know we're readless here, but it's pretty hard for him to have a better hand. BTW, I would normally want to go for 2 streets of value here and plan to check the river behind.

Snap off the river. You're getting like > 3:1, right? Snaaaap. I mean, sometimes he played something strangely and was always ahead... sometimes he has Ac8c or 9c8c or w/e and made some sort of strange better hand and now he bets, but yeah, it's a call.

tough spot, considering you only have $125 behind and you're really only catching bluffs with missed flush/straight draws. But Villains lead is for less than half the pot. Given the odds, I think I'm calling here hoping villain was bluffing.

I like the raise PF but I agree with the above poster, we can't go a little bigger. I'm expecting calls from both limpers to the $10 raise and I'm not loving that with this hand. (I'm glad btn folded tho )

Flop - looks great, plenty of draws and worse pairs in both of their ranges.

Turn - Looks great, I like your sizing and I think there's plenty of hands we're getting value from.

River - I'm beating him in the pot. I have trouble thinking a random unknown player is going to be betting a rivered 8 with A8 or 78 type hands. The majority of players here would try to see a cheap show down with an 8 now that they have showdown value, and you're getting a great price on the call.

I mean, think about villain's range on the river. It's an easy call and not really close.

First of all, let's start with the fact that you hold 66. So you block the **** out of the nut straight if he'd play it like this on a paired board.

Second, villain should be polarized on the river. Like boats and straights only. It's impossible to have a boat. Just kidding, but there are like 6 combos, 9 if you include a binked 88, and 10 total monster combos if you count 33. So that's 10 boat+ monsters. Top straight = 8 combos since you block half of them. Bottom straight A2 = 16. 8 + 10 + 16 = 34 value combos. 62 and 3x are pretty unlikely given pre-flop. I'd just discount to 0, though sometimes he has something weird.

Then, onto his hands that he needs to bluff... so many of them. I know we're readless, so it's hard to assume he has like K2 here, but suited clubs is a good possibility. Again no read (would he play J6cc?), but call it 18 club combos. Then there's a 6. You block them, but, say, A6 has 8 combos. Add a few gut shots, etc., doesn't really matter, even if you discount a ton of the possible draws, you're going to get a ratio that makes this an easy calling getting > 3:1.

Bet sizing is a huge consideration on the river BTW. If he had bet pot, I'd probably consider folding a lot - that's a more classic "I'm passive and have no idea how to extract, it's the river, ba-bam." In that case, his range is stronger and your odds are way worse.

This is just a snap.

So you're suggesting villain has 34 value combos and 26 bluff combos in his range? If so, this is definitely a snap call since we are good almost half the time.

But the question is do we discount both groups of hands equally? Both have to be discounted. The value hands because they could have check/raise flop or turn, but didn't. Sometimes they'd slow play, sometimes not. The bluffs we have to discount because he might get to the river 100% of the time w/ these hands sure, but no villain is bluffing 100% of the time.

No hand really makes sense, so I went into the tank before...will post results later .

Not exactly that, but yeah, the general idea is that given odds and required value:bluff ratios, I can't imagine any likely range distribution for which I'm folding here.

i think this is pretty poorly played, starting with the preflop raise. make it bigger if you are going to raise here. with just a button limper and the SB, meh, not enough money to go crazy after. i check here about 98 percent of the time.

flop isn't 'great' for 66. great is 644.

Info is limited so we don't know if he is vbetting the river with an 8 in his hand.

We beat an OESD and a flush draw.

Most of the times players with good hands raise ott. Probably he is not slowplaying, especially OOP.

Tough decision, but I think we need to call to see his busted draw.

I'm not sure, so let's do a pros cons list.

For calling:
- he played it really weird, overpair/set may not have played it that way
- if he had 78cc/89cc/a8cc, I think he will check/call you instead of leading out on that board. LLSNL players usually don't value lead out if they don't make the flush there.
- pot odds

Against calling:
- against a total unknown, pf play looks like a suited connector and hits the board
- river bet looks more like defensive bet, or a thin value bet, rather than a bluff - and with that kind of bet, even though it's unlikely that he has a monster, there are few hands 66 can beat.
- it's a terrible bluff on a super dangerous board, and over 90% of the times leading out for 1/2 pot oop against someone who have shown strength pf, flop, and turn, will get called. Even a donkeyfishbraindead type of V will instinctively know that - so V does not appear to mind being called here.
- You are short here, V isn't bluffing here because if you reraise, V has virtually no fold equity.

Therefore, I am leaning towards a fold.

Fold.

fwiw vilan probably has a flush draw with a 3 clubs. This doesn't look like a bluff to me but it is possible. I'd fold as pot isn't laying me enough for a call.

Hero folds, villain shows 85.

Raise more pre.
Flop is good.
I would check turn.
As played, I call river.

But didn't you see the results? He had the best hand on the river. Just kidding .

It seemed close, what really drove me toward a fold was the fact that I showed strength three streets w/ a line that's very consistent with an overpair. By betting, he's trying to rep better than an overpair. FWIW: If I had like 1010+ on the river I'd almost certainly call, for the chance he has 99 or 77 (these two hands are enough to tip the scale to calling).

yeah I think you should pay off OTR but it sucks

So we've got 6 people saying call, 3 saying fold.

It's a baffling line from him with any hand except maybe 88 or some slow played monsters. The fact that he had 85s is strange as well...

What leaned me toward folding was he could be making a blocking bet with a better hand than me. Maybe 8X or 77 or 99. It's not a huge bet, just 1/2 pot bet. With a monster (straight or better) it seems like he'd bet a little bigger on the river, given my strong line and the high chance I pay him off.

He might have bet his 85s on the river because he might have read me for a bluff or for AK/AQ and wanted to discourage me from bluffing on the river.

Sounds like an old man, this 345cc is a great flop

I would argue 644 isn't that great in the sense that it's a board we can't get much value from unless villains are aggro

Add a 7th to the call camp

If you raise this pre and are squirming at a small ish river donk on this board, then raising pre is a mistake for your game. Villains can't vbet thin in general , and his range is basically capped with his limp preflop

I can't believe a poster above thinks this is 3xcc often, like that's Wayy too narrow of a range and it's rather inconsistent with his line

Hand is wp now just call river

i was thinking he might have 88

Yeah exactly, even without the results im still sticking with a fold.

People, you need to have a tpgk at the very minimum here to even think about calling. Hes like bluffing <10% of the time. The funny thing is that the V is either really good and put you on exactly a middle pair, or really terrible so that he didnt even realize his two pairs are no good against any overpair.

We are not trying to figure out exactly what hand he has, but rather his general range in taking the line he did, given his likely perception of YOUR line. Is he doing this (ie. Donking into the aggressor) with a hand worse than 66? I really dont think so.

his sizing OTR, considering your stack size, does scream value and would have scared the bejesus out of me, but I still probably call

was that why you folded, Ben? if he shoves do you call? if he bets 20 do you call?

what's kinda wierd about this hand is that if he puts you on an overpair, most of em still beat you on the river, and he's usually drawing to 2 outs on the turn, and then he didn't even get paid off when he actually did hit, so you pretty much owned him if you folded, but that doesn't make it a good fold

what might make it a good fold is that sizing is usually a strong tell that he's good, he seems to really want a call

We're going to need a pretty clean reputation at the table to get someone to fold an overpair which is a likely hand for SB. Not everyone raises 77 or even 10 10 out of the small blind. But they'll call down with it as long as AK misses.

Yeah, I'm an OMC, though.

pretty bad bet by villain, your hands face up as an over pair, and all the draws missed. What's he repping A2s,A3s,67s, that somehow didn't raise along the way?

he has to figure that he's getting called most of the time. He got lucky you had one of two hands he beats, 66-77.

I'd top off and be stoked I have him on my right.

You don't beat anything he's betting for value, but he really shouldn't have any value hands other than 88 w/ his line. It probably should be a fold, but I'm a huge station, I'd never fold given his line.