1/2, with $5 (+$1) rock OTB, 9 handed, $600 effective. Villain is a huge station, and made a huge bluff against hero a few nights ago - hero raised to $100 with AK over $20 rock and villain limping SB; flop came A J 4x, villain x, hero bet $70, villain shoved $400, hero called and villain had 87s (not clubs.) Hero also got three streets with pair of A, Q kicker on a three flush board (completed Ott) vs villain that same night.

OTTH

Hero opens BB $35 A K and only villain calls LJ.

Flop ($77): Q 8 7. X-x. I'm normally c betting this spot, but with the dynamics versus this villain I decided to check. Is this fine?

Turn ($77): 2. X-$35-we call. I feel like we have the best hand a fair amount, I don't really like betting the turn. Are you betting the turn?

River ($147): A. Hero? Go for thin value or x to induce?

As played honestly I think betting might induce lol. This guy has some seriously flawed thinking about ranges. My guess is he's used to playing with nits who fold everything but the nuts when he raises so he just plays hog wild when he wants to win the pot. Your goal vs him isnt to give him rope, it's to give him a loaded gun.

Back to the flop, I think checking is great because if my theory is right we dont want to give him room to bluff us. Check and let him have the free card, he'll gladly take it if it means he can improve for cheap without making a move.

I def lead turn after he checks because **** all that noise we're done playing soft. Not to mention our equity is pretty decent vs his likely any two random cards at this point. If he does raise the turn then just pitch it, we can obviously felt this guy easily enough with a better hand. I mean I'd call like a $90 raise but I doubt he'd go so small.

PF is standard.

On the flop, there are two ways to play it. First, you can do the cbet representing a pair. If he blows you off the hand, no big deal. If he proudly shows you his air, just say, "looks like you had me beat." Since you have the A spades, you can also represent a FD and check behind. It is unlikely he has an actual FD. What that means though is that you need to bet the turn when the spade hits. It shouldn't be too much because you want him to think you're drawing him in for the shove on the river.

As played, what hands on the river does the villain have that will call a bet. If you don't have at least 55% equity against that range, don't bet.

So are you betting the turn purely for equity denial then? I imagine we have the best hand a majority of the time. I don't usually like x-c down in LLSNL, but I felt like this was the right opponent to do so against.

Why do we need to bet the turn when a spade hits? We look pretty weak, and (based on the time we've had with him) I'm guessing that he's going to look us up very wide. I was thinking to keep him wide, and it seems often that these players will bet ATC ott when checked to.

Yup. I too dislike playing bluffcatcher live. If we improve then the river is a value bet, if we miss then he wins. I dont ever want to give the impression that I'm good for a call. I want them to be scared that any bet they make could result in a raise.

So you don't think that we're throwing away money by betting the turn, considering we only improve approximately 30% of the time on the river?

Also, considering you say you don't like to x-c live, are you x'ing the flop to x-f?

vs this opponent yes I XF the flop, reason being is that he's a loose cannon and i expect to get paid when he fights back, not when we run him down. If my read is right then he thinks we're playing back at him any time we bet/raise. I want to actually have a pretty decent chance of hitting something when he detonates.

This is why I bet the turn. We have to keep the meta alive for him. If all we do is passively try to spike he's not going to pay off. It's controlled aggression. We're in there just enough to piss him off but not enough for him to think we're constantly FOS.

That's fair. Thank you for your thoughts.